Yesterday call.
My subscriber got this to say: "Thank you 140 points from 1.4760 to 1.490 "
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
30 Jan Cut Cut / American Gold
GATA advertisement on Wall Street Journal on 31 Jan 2008.
many months ago, in another public forum, I posted that FED would cut to 1.5%, now this is becoming a reality.
However the point of no return is 3%, if FED cuts below 3%, then its ability to influence the ecomomy would be gone. B'cos inflation is now hovering close to 3%.
Essentially, it does not make sense for Americans to save, might as well spend it. It would spur greater American consumption, while Asia is trying to kindle its own consumption.
US would spend itself dry within a decade. What would happen is more falling bridges, floods, electricity undersupply, cutback in Medicare, Medicaid. Already it could only afford a meagre 150billion rescue package so far. If another disaster comes along, US would be spent.
Some bigshot talk about the resilence in the American economy, e.g. it sprung back from the dotcom bubble, the 911, the Katrina. Now it was 3 times lucky, how about the 4th time ? The odds are indeed against US this time round.
From a currency point of view, USD at 1.5000 is equilibrium with Euro in the long run, comparing the budgets, trade, etc.
US would emerge from this near recession, but fall into another greater crisis in 2009, a depression, not recession.
This FOMC would sound so tame that turn a Tiger into a Pussy.
I am planning to start another Naked Call letter focusing on Equities. For those interested, pls email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com.
Update 5:05 am ET
--------------------
some subscriber ask why am i so sure, FED would give 50bp cut, not 25bp, not 75bp.
Last FOMC, there gave 75bp cut, which is the magic number "3", fibonacci number.
now if they give another 50bp, it would be "5" cut, another fibonacci number.
Then Fed fund rate would be at 3%, another fibonacci number.
That is how we use Fibonacci number to trade. got it ?
You can see I posted GATA advertisement that is to be published on 31 Jan 2008 Wall Street Journal.
Essentially individuals under the Freedom of Information Act is asking to Treasury Department to come clean with what is happening to America's Gold reserve.
The concern is that the Gold reserve has been used in swaps or options to suppress the Gold prices.
Last time, on the day Gold fell from 916 to 850, I wrote about Scooby Doo investigating the Gold Monster which appeared at Fort Knox, the place when the government keeps the Gold Reserve.
Now, American public want to know about its Gold.
Have the Gold been pilferred away ? What do US has ? Has the administration been selling Gold to support the Iraq War ? or selling Gold to prop up the Stock Market ? or selling Gold to support the rate cut ?
The American need to know
Now the vote:
If you think the government had squaddered away American Gold, pls click on the links.
Thankyou,
Update 8:33 am ET
--------------------
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHome/BrokeHomeownersTurnToArson.aspx
a MSN article on foreclosure homeowners turn to burning their houses.
Months ago, I wrote in the other forum that those facing foreclosure should consider burning their houses, just when the California fire was rampant.
Obviously, I am not the only one thinking about it.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
29 Jan We make monies in uncertain market
This is the chart for today, released at 5 am ET to subscribers.
If you want to get the chart in time, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
for feed subscription.
Something from a subscriber today:
"Hello Pro, and thanks for the great calls. I was watching the charts Sunday eve, seeing how they basically conformed to your calls at the end of last week. I waited until I received your Naked Call letter, then went Long on 3 pairs, and went to bed. Woke up Monday morn to handsome profits, and hung on for a bit longer ... resulting in 100 pips on each of 3 trades. A great way to start the “work” week.Really appreciate your including the ENTRY points, TARGETS, and STOPLOSS settings for the trades. It is great when you can include such accurate calls for us."
Monday, January 28, 2008
28 Jan We need another Rogue Trader
EURUSD, taken almost 9 hours ago. If you had this earlier, you probably would have position at 1.4670 for a easy ride to 1.4750 and more.
USDJPY. Here is another money making ideas. 108 is the ceiling.
If you made monies from this charts, click on the links. Thanx,
today is characteristed by those who bought the plunge taking profits. Hang Seng Index down today, with a late hours recovery.
Also JP Morgan, Bank of NY goes on TV talking about Euro to fall to perhaps 1.4000 level. and of course GBP is hopeless (this is what all analyst agrees).
Now we hear from European Banks, Fortis, Credit Suisse, ABN is surprisingly quiet.
We need some more rogue traders to make this markets really attractive to buy.
For those who want to subscribe, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with a fee.
thanx for the votes last Friday, surprise to see quite a number of readers profiting from this blog. Well done, Kudos go to your execution. I just supply the idea.
Update 6:30 am ET
--------------------
Kennedy endorses Obama. seems like Obama is on a winning streak. Sometimes those wallstreet nerds are good for the economy.
Update 10 am ET
------------------
these guy from LPL Financial was saying that housing is bottoming, and the housing sales came out at -4.7% more than the -0.3% expected for Dec.
When asked on national TV, he says "yes, it is definitely bottoming, but the bottom is much lower than expected".
For all these analyst, there is always a way out.
Euro rallies towards 1.4800, and now dropping back a bit. GBP also stab at 1.9880, dropping back now.
I guess market want to salute Bush and would pause it rise meanwhile.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
27 Jan Market has pumped up and ready to go
surveying all the charts, news,
only one conclusion. Equities are ready to go again. Market assumes current price has factored in a recession for 2 Qtrs (dec 2007, jan 2008). market expecting economy to rebound in 2Qtr 2008. hence it would rise, however how far it goes is the question. Bush cheques would be released in May 2008, supposing to boost economy in 2nd Qtr.
if it cannot get back above the bull trend, then we are looking at a continous recession lasting 1-2 yrs.
hence market has priced in a 50bp cut next week, and a GDP of 1% or slightly better. The surprises would be a hawkish FED with a 25bp cut, and a negative GDP.
The other risk is Gold races into its terminus and completes its journey in double short time.
In general, it means continued USD weakness, Gold strength for the next month.
At least dun be fried shorting stocks in the next few weeks.
only one conclusion. Equities are ready to go again. Market assumes current price has factored in a recession for 2 Qtrs (dec 2007, jan 2008). market expecting economy to rebound in 2Qtr 2008. hence it would rise, however how far it goes is the question. Bush cheques would be released in May 2008, supposing to boost economy in 2nd Qtr.
if it cannot get back above the bull trend, then we are looking at a continous recession lasting 1-2 yrs.
hence market has priced in a 50bp cut next week, and a GDP of 1% or slightly better. The surprises would be a hawkish FED with a 25bp cut, and a negative GDP.
The other risk is Gold races into its terminus and completes its journey in double short time.
In general, it means continued USD weakness, Gold strength for the next month.
At least dun be fried shorting stocks in the next few weeks.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
26 Jan Fed duped by rogue trader
see today Financial Times. it has a story of how FED may be duped by Jerome Kerviel. A bunch of intellects bluffed by a French. Interesting.
No wonder ECB refused to budge and cut rate.
now, would FED have to carry on their mistake and cut again ?
No wonder ECB refused to budge and cut rate.
now, would FED have to carry on their mistake and cut again ?
Friday, January 25, 2008
25 Jan Rogue Trader
this chart was given to subscriber 11 hours ago. A breakout has indeed happened. the highest reached was 108. Then it was at 107.17. 80 pips no frills. you earn back your subscription just with one trade. Email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
yesterday chart, it exceeded my expectation to the upside.
Consider what the SC trader Jerome has done, it is pretty cheap to spend $7b to rob the world markets of Trillions.
Now analyst attribute the recent sudden Equities plunge to his action.
And news has it that he built a scam inside SG, not just a accidental wrong call.
Probably he is hiding and trading on his own monies now.
last time it was 1billion, and Barings go bust. now 7b and SG is still smiling. You can see how monies have flooded the world markets. Monies is cheap, to say the least. It is just tree pulp and some ink.
Would like to do a vote, if you have been making monies following this blog, pls click on the link here. So that at least I am motivated to provide more information.
Update 2:45 am ET
--------------------
German consumer confidence December number just in at 109, slightly weaker. Import prices at high.
Euro/Silver/Gold all waiting for break up. EURGBP looking to break down. EURJPY going higher.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
24 Jan Americans bullying the Europeans again / Tribute to Heath Ledger
US media through their national TV is hyping up demands for Europe rate cut. Much like when Bush wants German, French to join the Iraq invasion. Which luckily the Europeans rejected, otherwise, all would be in deep shit.
And lately the Americans is openly pointing finger at the NATO failure in Afghanistan.
When US is having problem, it tries to shift its blame to others. E.g. the China Yuan revaluation, and now asking Europe to cut rate.
Asking Europe to cut rate is like asking my galfren Hedi Kluum to strip to her lingerie in public. She only stripes for me, ok, Uncle Sam.
Yesterday, US rebound, let us see if Europe rebounds.
To receive my calls in a timely manner to maximise profit and advoid wrongly positioning, subscribe with a fee, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
If you agree with my predicution, click on the Google Links here. Thanx for the support.
Roubini
Roubini is on the national TV again. He has been talking about Recession 8 months ago. And he has been right.
He said "the train has already left the station, we are in a recession".
140billion 1% of GDP is minuscle. Previously it was 6%, now US has no monies, has squandered all his budget surplus.
Not a global recession, but a severe slowdown in global economy.
George Zoro (a.k.a. George, the guy who bankrupt Bank Of England)
Zoro who forecasted a recession in 2007, in 1Qtr 2006. says that this is the end of an era of credit expansion.
USD as a world reserve currency has ended.
Georgina says RECESSION is almost inevitable.
Countervailing forces e.g. China, India would prevent a global recession.
Festering problem in Financial market need to be flushed fast. Ought to have a regulatory change. FED cannot cut too fast, b'cos of inflation. Short rates fall, long rate rise, and that end the FED ability to influence the economy.
He says ALAN GREENSPAN mishandled the situation (when asked if Bernanke has mishandled)
However, Bernanke is working on wrong paradigm.
People who pick the bottom would come out ahead. those wrong would suffer the consequences.
(hence join me, DollarPro in picking the Bottom)
Zoro knows exactly where the Dollar is going, but he is not able to disclose.
However his galfren on my payroll, which I am ready to disclose.
I would rather ask him : "Can we bankrupt the Bank Of England one more time ? let say on the 7 Feb ?"
I would rather ask him : "Can we bankrupt the Bank Of England one more time ? let say on the 7 Feb ?"
Those interested to join in the effort, pls email me, Sir DollarPro, Duke of Lochness.
Equities Bull role of honors
------------------------
Cozad Asset Management
SEB (a Swedish Bank)
Tribute to Heath Ledger
-------------------------
Almost 2 year ago, when I first started posting, I use a shot from "Brokeback Moutain" as my Avatar, in which you see Heath Ledger.
Reason why I do that is because, USD is like the boys in Brokeback Moutain, seemingly strong but soft inside. That time Euro was trying to break 1.2400 after rising from 1.1600.
USD is a Hero back home, but a softie in international market.
Give me a blow, man, if not click on the Google link to pay tribute to Heath Ledger.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
23 Jan Screaming Buy ?
picture taken and given to subscriber 11 hours ago.
Credit Suisse guy on national TV saying "screaming buy". Sure you buy, CS sell to you, then you scream, hahahhaah.
We heard from UBS (United Bank of Singapore), how is Credit Suisse doing ?
Market trying to turn around, unwind the selling pressure. Like a slow ship turning. At least Bernanke managed to mark a turning point.
Market plunge is far from over. The rise started from 2003, a 4 yr thingy dun get over in 2 weeks.
When we hear from the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) aka Financial Working Commitee, we still have some more legs to go. Short term rebound.
The next FOMC is on the 18 March, 2 months from now. More impromptu FOMC meetings now in the cards. E.g. when you are in the bed doing the wonderful thing, may be a impromptu FOMC 50bp cut can really get things going for the EuroBull.
Amendment, next FOMC is still 30-31 Jan. Fed Fund says another 50bp cut. My God !!!! it is 3%. and then another impromptu FOMC), it is 2.25%, and the March 18, it is 50bp to 1.75%.
By the end of 1Qtr, it is 1.75%.
What if there is no Recession afterall ?
I think US Interest Rates, financial system would be in total chaos. A greater crisis than subprime.
A subprime crisis should not be having a impact of as now. A bigger crisis is coming.
With Euro at say 3.75% and USD at 2.25% by mid Feb, a differential of 1.5% vs Euro,
or GBP at 5.25% USD at 2.25%, differential at 3%.
the new Carry Trade has arrived.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
22 Jan FED PANIC, next air drop of US dollars
busy day for me, taking profits on my shorts futures on SPX, Gold, Silver. Looking for a surprise rebound in SPX today. Trigger not sure.
Expect the current leg down for EURO, GBP to bottom. While GBP went lower than 1.9450 to 1.9340. to challenge 1.9217.
Futher Euro weakness to come after rebound to challenge 1.4312
If you agree with my forecast, click on any of the Google links here. Thanx,
Wow !!! even the FED is panic, it cuts 75bp through a phone conference of the FOMC.
When FED is panic, the printing presses is now turned on 25 hours a day.
Next Rabbit in the Hat:
Ben Bernanke is going to commandeer Helicopters from the Air Force and Coast Guards and Police to airdrop Monies for those who need it !!!!
Mostly in 1 and 2 dollars notes.
Even if it was only a slowdown, FED has made everyone believe it is a RECESSION already.
What wold happen on 31 Jan ? another 75bp cut ? 2.75% ?
Significant moment, first time USD interate rate at 3.5% lower than Euro 4%.
Interesting Gold reached a low of 850 and bounced almost 3 hours before the annoucment.
Monday, January 21, 2008
21 Jan Euro gap down
we should see wave 3 into 1.4300 again to challenge a larger neckline. critical point.
(this chart was given to my subscribers last Friday, pointing to a wave 3 down)
On 10 Jan, I call for 1.9450 bottom for GBP, after almost another weeks of meandering, it comes to 1.9450 finally.
If you want to receive information timely and maximise your profits, do subscribe. Email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
Update 5 am ET
----------------
Asia meltdown, Singapore down 6%. Flight to safety, USD stronger. In Asia economies, it is easier to switch to USD than Euro. Hence a preference for USD when Asia investors flee.
A lot of American brokers, e.g. Goldman Sach, Meryll Lynch has substantial real estate investment in Asia. Would they sell their Real Estate enbloc to cash out of Asia ? Since the upside for Asia real estate is already in.
Expect Asia properties to plunge, going forward. Then we have a lots of Bankruptcies auction in Asia. By nature, the Asians are a bigger gambler.
Any way, market expecting a US stock rebound, perhaps on a good earnings. technically unwind from oversold position, which would be met with further selling. SPX target is 1150.
Do explore the Links here, some of them give good and FREE Charting software.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
20 Jan One Picture says it all
My subscibers have been making monies with the zig-zag moves (as seen in the picture above).
all silence. Gordon Brown should be in Delhi now. My Darling would annouce the way forward for Northern Rock on Monday.
FFIP now stands at 72% for 75bp cut. What if Fed delivers only 50bp ?
BoE, ECB meeting on 9 Feb.
In case those who do not know what is a BEAR market. Everyday you see lower lows, continous lows for 10 straights days, without any rebound in sight.
Feel free to explore the Links here, you would be surprised to find FREE liver charts, FREE trading platform, FREE events, FREE education, etc. leading to some FREE profits eventually.
If you want to subscribe the "Naked Call Letter" with a fee (not Free), email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with header Subscribe. It is not just another information or factual letter. It contains winning calls and analysis. It helps you to navigate in this tumultous markets for Equities, Forex and Commodities.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
19 Jan Twin Towers
When we grow up, our parents handhold us to learn to walk. You are given at least 12 years of eudcation before you join the workforce.
Now, tell me when you first trade, who is holding your hand ? You trading alone ?
Dinner is ready. Email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
Monday is holiday, taking a day off. Thank you for your readership.
Friday, January 18, 2008
18 Jan Confirmed Equity Bear Market and the coming PANIC
Some of my subscribers say:
"BTW good call to take profit and run yesterday on the Euro, when it tanked I had my limits in and ready"
"another brilliant call today, and it's not over yet.i have a stupid beginner question...when you have time to answer."
"the down move in Eur/USD finally came, well done!Do you think it will continue today?"
The 2 Commandments of Trading
If you trade, dun trade against the King
If you dun know what the King is trading, you better dun trade.
King Aragon a.k.a. DollarPro
Another one came in:
"I never really paid much attention to the forums and all the predictions made out there but since joining you I have been regularly checking. You go against almost everyone most of the time but you are also right most of the time while they are wrong, its really interesting to see the "experts" out there post. Thanks"
Equities Talk
------------------
For the Equities guys out there, I am not holding a single drop of Equities. S&P Double Top is confirmed. See the chart, and you would see where is the bottom, it is scary. It is going to last for years. That explain why DXY would drop to 40 long term over a decade. All those GOOG, AAPL fans watch out.
Right on the opening week of January, a lot of fund manager were singing songs on Emerging Economies. Now Funds are pulling out of Asia. Hence the myth of "Asia decoupling from US" is a farce. Only the Asian governments are still chanting the tune. All those Sovereign Wealth Funds investment in US is just a trap to reduce the Asian wealth afterall.
The China forex investment company has only made small acquisition so far, compared to Singapore and Middle-east. The Chinese had learnt their lessons with BlackRock. By June, we would know who are the Ponzis in this subprime game. The biggest losers are not the Citi, Meryll, Bear Sterns, etc, but those SWF who pumps in the monies.
Also during the on-going year end audits, a lot of the goodwill carried on books of those M&A companies need to be revised downwards as much as 25% to 50%, bcos of the slowing economies, a lot of the Blue Chips would be showing bleeding balance sheets.
In fact, it is a myth that the market would turn up by 2nd half of the yr. Think we would still be bottoming then.
Option expiry coming, VIX is going to jump. PANIC is coming.
S&P is going into 1333 from 1350 now
Dow into 9000 from 12128
Asia is going to tumble, in fact more.
And when USD is getting stronger against the Asia currencies, we are closer to a repeat of the Asian Financial Crisis. By the way, Inflation is going to escalate, with food scare, riots, robbery.
It is the Final Battle of Megiddo.
When the Battle ends, guess what currencies would GOD be holding ?
None. GO(l)D is already HIS own currency.
"BTW good call to take profit and run yesterday on the Euro, when it tanked I had my limits in and ready"
"another brilliant call today, and it's not over yet.i have a stupid beginner question...when you have time to answer."
"the down move in Eur/USD finally came, well done!Do you think it will continue today?"
The 2 Commandments of Trading
If you trade, dun trade against the King
If you dun know what the King is trading, you better dun trade.
King Aragon a.k.a. DollarPro
Another one came in:
"I never really paid much attention to the forums and all the predictions made out there but since joining you I have been regularly checking. You go against almost everyone most of the time but you are also right most of the time while they are wrong, its really interesting to see the "experts" out there post. Thanks"
Equities Talk
------------------
For the Equities guys out there, I am not holding a single drop of Equities. S&P Double Top is confirmed. See the chart, and you would see where is the bottom, it is scary. It is going to last for years. That explain why DXY would drop to 40 long term over a decade. All those GOOG, AAPL fans watch out.
Right on the opening week of January, a lot of fund manager were singing songs on Emerging Economies. Now Funds are pulling out of Asia. Hence the myth of "Asia decoupling from US" is a farce. Only the Asian governments are still chanting the tune. All those Sovereign Wealth Funds investment in US is just a trap to reduce the Asian wealth afterall.
The China forex investment company has only made small acquisition so far, compared to Singapore and Middle-east. The Chinese had learnt their lessons with BlackRock. By June, we would know who are the Ponzis in this subprime game. The biggest losers are not the Citi, Meryll, Bear Sterns, etc, but those SWF who pumps in the monies.
Also during the on-going year end audits, a lot of the goodwill carried on books of those M&A companies need to be revised downwards as much as 25% to 50%, bcos of the slowing economies, a lot of the Blue Chips would be showing bleeding balance sheets.
In fact, it is a myth that the market would turn up by 2nd half of the yr. Think we would still be bottoming then.
Option expiry coming, VIX is going to jump. PANIC is coming.
S&P is going into 1333 from 1350 now
Dow into 9000 from 12128
Asia is going to tumble, in fact more.
And when USD is getting stronger against the Asia currencies, we are closer to a repeat of the Asian Financial Crisis. By the way, Inflation is going to escalate, with food scare, riots, robbery.
It is the Final Battle of Megiddo.
When the Battle ends, guess what currencies would GOD be holding ?
None. GO(l)D is already HIS own currency.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
17 Jan Do you need a Sherpa ?
Call of Day
Well, for those who knows little, when Edmund Hillary scale the top of Mount Everest, there is the Sherpa Tenzin who accompanied him and assisted him on the climb. Imagine they were the first people, and there was hardly any pegs or guiding ropes.
Hence we can safely say, without Tenzin, Edmund Hillary would not have scaled Mount Everest. In fact there were rumours that it was Tenzin who reached the top before Edmund Hillary.
Do you need a Sherpa ? email dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for a subscription Sherpa. Of course a Sherpa comes with a fee. Imagine who would accompany you up Mount Everest for free ?
Hence we can safely say, without Tenzin, Edmund Hillary would not have scaled Mount Everest. In fact there were rumours that it was Tenzin who reached the top before Edmund Hillary.
Do you need a Sherpa ? email dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for a subscription Sherpa. Of course a Sherpa comes with a fee. Imagine who would accompany you up Mount Everest for free ?
Update 9:40 am ET
--------------------
Pinalto say risk is on the growth side, inflation has edged up. Overall a balanced talk.
now waiting for Bernanke. The media wants the market to believe Bernanke would endorse the fiscal stimulus package, which Bush would announce on the State of Union address, his last.
Gordon Brown going to China, what can he brings for GBP ? Again does not look good to your host if GBP is depreciating. Nobody buys a depreciating currencies. May be China should buy more Gilt. Anyway the yield at 5%+ is attractive, as good as those Singapore/Dubia gets from their investment in Meryll and Citi.
Wachovia guy says economy is in a grow-cession. Oh, my Groin-cession.
seriously, earnings would be slow and not growing.
GFMS guy Klapwijk say Gold would reach 1000 in 2nd half of 2008. Platinum is the best performing.
Update 10:25 am ET
---------------------
Brainless speech. The Economic stimulus has to be near term and temporary. Of course !, Bush remaining term is only 1 yr. Hence to get the best chances for the Repbulican, the stimulus has to be implemented as soon as possible, and to benefit the current administration only.
Bernanke says "He is not forecasting Recession".
Ok, that is enough. Market, pls rally.
Bernanke says Europe is different, Europe does not have a housing crisis. Fed does not see the potential slowdown in growth in Europe and Asia. Hence the different approach to interest rate.
I.e. Bernanke has no problem with ECB holding if not hiking rates.
Bernanke also says that he does not use GOLD as a measure of inflation. As Gold may also reflect geopolitical concerns. Ok, GOLD is unleashed.
Update 11:10 am ET
---------------------
A congress woman mistaken Bernanke for Hank Paulson. She was asking if those Bankers who got huge bonus from the subprime lending should return the Bonus to the American people.
In fact that should be the way, penalise these Rich CEOs, Bankers in the court, and plough the monies back into the system.
SPX touched 1355, DOW 12395. all below multimonths support.
We got to see if it is going to be a fire sale once Bernanke finishes. That would have implication for Euro and Gold.
one congressman say that during the best of times, the poverty rate actually goes up. And now the best of times is over, that it.
Tax cut actually cost the American people.
IT is clear the TAX CUT actually benefits the rich.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
16 Jan Tribute to Sir Edmund Hillary
Tribute to Sir Edmund Hillary who passed away over the weekend.
He said "it is not the mountain that we need to conquer, it is ourself".
I was once a amateur mountaineer, the closest I got to was South Summit of Mount Everest.
The next milestone was the Hillary Step and then the steep slope upto the summit.
Update 3:15 am ET
-----------------------
Asia markets fall sharply today. Especially HK with a close to 5% drop. Hence the myth of Asia discouple from US is just a talk.
Cutting back risks, investors selling everthing they own to raise cash, that include: Gold, Commodities, Euro, etc.
Thursday is key. Would Bernanke lie to the Congress and paint a bed of roses ? or sound Gloom and Doom or basically to admit that he does not know what to do ?
Unless you have a parachute ready, better to stay out of this volatile times.
Update 9:05 am ET
--------------------
Another comments today:
"Hello, ProThanks for the great calls which explained clearly where to go long on Euro. Very impressive, and quite lucrative. Cheers"
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
15 Jan Scooby Doo and the Gold monster AND the Honors Roll of people calling bullish on Equities
the market is really boring, everthing happening as planned. I decided to watch some cartoon. and walla, there is this Scooby Doo cartoon, investingating the Gold Monster. A Gold Monster turned up at Fort Knox where US keeps all its Gold. And the Gold Monster just turned 2 of the army guards into Gold statues.
How I wish I meet the Gold monster.
Remeber we also have the "Fantastics Four and the Silver Surfer" ?
Singapore government is investing into CitiBank (6.9b), besides Standard Chartered and Meryll. Soon it would rise to a world financial center, outside of New York. Singapore would displace Tokyo as Asia Financial center, to be on par with London and Frankfurt.
Japan is pondering on a bill to require foreign residents to know their language. And lately, the Japanese realise that having a awfully cheap YEN does not help themselve in acquiring global assets, but turn out to be the acquisition target. Japan is prominantly absent in all these bank acquisitions galore going on. By June, Japan would confirmed be slipping back into its decade long deflation and zero-growth.
Despite all the noise out there, US is already sliding into recession, the Banks (which you read about in the news) are actually bankrupt.
I decide to maintain a roll of insitutions or individuals who are making bullish call for Equities.
i.e. people who are talking about bottoms, cheap valuation, etc to buying into this falling knife. I may have come across such calls on TV, newspaper, websites. So that when everything is over, we can see if they are being earnest or deceptive.
How I wish I meet the Gold monster.
Remeber we also have the "Fantastics Four and the Silver Surfer" ?
Singapore government is investing into CitiBank (6.9b), besides Standard Chartered and Meryll. Soon it would rise to a world financial center, outside of New York. Singapore would displace Tokyo as Asia Financial center, to be on par with London and Frankfurt.
Japan is pondering on a bill to require foreign residents to know their language. And lately, the Japanese realise that having a awfully cheap YEN does not help themselve in acquiring global assets, but turn out to be the acquisition target. Japan is prominantly absent in all these bank acquisitions galore going on. By June, Japan would confirmed be slipping back into its decade long deflation and zero-growth.
Despite all the noise out there, US is already sliding into recession, the Banks (which you read about in the news) are actually bankrupt.
I decide to maintain a roll of insitutions or individuals who are making bullish call for Equities.
i.e. people who are talking about bottoms, cheap valuation, etc to buying into this falling knife. I may have come across such calls on TV, newspaper, websites. So that when everything is over, we can see if they are being earnest or deceptive.
Cozad Asset Management 15 Jan 2008, 9:45 am ET (national TV)
Update 10:50 am ET
I can't believe it. when Bush is in Middleeast calling for OPEC to increase oil output. Crude drops 2 Dollars (out of courtesy, I suppose). By the way, US has been increasing its strategic stockpile incessantly. If the Sheikhs has to lend out their concubine to the Texas ranches, it has to be at a awfully good price.
Business inventories up as expected. Empire manufacturing, retail sales weaker (weaker dollar does not help). DXY at 75.29, blow the H&S neckline of the decade long pattern. Today we are on a historic juncture. The slow gring of DXY to 40.
Update 10:10 am ET
One subscriber asks: "more often than not I tend to agree with you and I have made money from your calls but I do wonder why so many have the complete opposite opinion so often?? "
My answer: obviously they are always on the wrong forum.
Those who want to invest in Singapore, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com,
For who want my "Naked Call" letter, email me as well with header "subscribe", with a fee of course.
Monday, January 14, 2008
14 Jan Are you standing in the path of the Midnight Express ?
Today without any major newsbreak, Euro rallies and tested 1.4900. Over the weekend, there were some renewed calls on national TV for selling GBP against EUR and SEK.
Gold broke past 900. Crude on its renewed path of rally. Finally the market decided where to go next after 1 week of pondering.
Bush went on a middle-east tour to build his legacy, instead of addressing the impending crisis. Obviously he knows that whatever he does now, it for the next President to harvest.
And he has been sounding beligerant towards Iran, with the Navy hyping the recent events.
Got some nice charts, would release later.
EURGBP smacks of an attack, probably a "Soros" type. Lots of European working in UK clamouring for change terms to Euro.
Quotatable Quotes:
"If you're standing on the railroad track and the train is bearing down on you at 90 miles per hour, don't stand there trying to decide whether the oncoming train is the 'Midnight Special' or the 'Wabash Cannon Ball'. Just get the hell off the tracks. Which train was coming at you can be determined later - right now that's not the problem."
Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters:
Gold broke past 900. Crude on its renewed path of rally. Finally the market decided where to go next after 1 week of pondering.
Bush went on a middle-east tour to build his legacy, instead of addressing the impending crisis. Obviously he knows that whatever he does now, it for the next President to harvest.
And he has been sounding beligerant towards Iran, with the Navy hyping the recent events.
Got some nice charts, would release later.
EURGBP smacks of an attack, probably a "Soros" type. Lots of European working in UK clamouring for change terms to Euro.
Quotatable Quotes:
"If you're standing on the railroad track and the train is bearing down on you at 90 miles per hour, don't stand there trying to decide whether the oncoming train is the 'Midnight Special' or the 'Wabash Cannon Ball'. Just get the hell off the tracks. Which train was coming at you can be determined later - right now that's not the problem."
Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters:
Sunday, January 13, 2008
13 Jan letter from a subscriber
Read this, and see if it rings a bell:
but as you said on the blog, i always seemed to be on the wrong side of the coin when i followed the advise of the "analysts". even people on the forum (where i saw your posts} on seemed to be advising the wrong thing. only after subscribing to your advise letters did i start to turn things around...this was only within the last two weeks.
when i read your column this morning on the blog, it all seemed to fit. the "system" is set up to be the "house" at the casino...didn't know that till today but it is such a good analogy. all the "analysts" seemed to be pointing to the opposite signals (i.e. shorting the euro when YOU said do NOT short the EURO).
it stands to reason that the house needs to stack the deck against small fish like me. that's how they make a living and pay bills like you said. it also explains why some poeple on the forum are less than friendly to you...(were you kicked off at one time?) you shine the light in the dark corners of their deception.
but as you said on the blog, i always seemed to be on the wrong side of the coin when i followed the advise of the "analysts". even people on the forum (where i saw your posts} on seemed to be advising the wrong thing. only after subscribing to your advise letters did i start to turn things around...this was only within the last two weeks.
when i read your column this morning on the blog, it all seemed to fit. the "system" is set up to be the "house" at the casino...didn't know that till today but it is such a good analogy. all the "analysts" seemed to be pointing to the opposite signals (i.e. shorting the euro when YOU said do NOT short the EURO).
it stands to reason that the house needs to stack the deck against small fish like me. that's how they make a living and pay bills like you said. it also explains why some poeple on the forum are less than friendly to you...(were you kicked off at one time?) you shine the light in the dark corners of their deception.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
12 Jan Ponzi
At last, i have time to dedicate something on how the money market works. Essentially all markets are operated by the market makes, a dozen of banks and financial institutions. Their role is to ensure the market operates orderly,when there is a buyer and there is a seller.
Your broker takes your trade and then warehouse them, it adds up all trades, plus and minus, to arrive at a net position. Then they hedge that position with the bank. It is the banks that would trade with the market. Of course, the streaming data you see does come from the bank, if not filtered by the broker first.
The brokers and banks make their monies through the spread, e.g. the 1 pip for Euro and the bulk of the monies comes from the stops taken. As time goes on, your capital diminishes throug the stops.
Of course, there are time you make. But the odds is against you. It is like going to the casinos, where the casinos operator is given an advantage by virtue of the game setup.
How does the broker has an advantage over you ?
(a) collaborating among brokers, work over a 24x5 to setup the market for a false move, then to reverse and take the stops. They execute deceptive trades, e.g. knowing Euro would rise after Bernanke speech, they move the markets lower jointly. E.g Euro was forced down to 1.4660 before the spike to 1.4815 on Thursday. Making Euro looks "weak".
(b) prepare the masses for the wrong position. Giving seemingly correct commentaries by so called reputable analyst. E.g. making calls for Euro bearishness ahead of last Thursday Bernanke speech. So that those busy part-time traders read the commentary and short Euro accordingly, especially when the Euro "seems" to look weak. That analyst would disappear for a while and the next analyst come onboard. That is why they bankroll a team of "analysts". These analysts are no more experienced than you or me.
(c) Insider information, e.g. leaks of data known only to the banks, and not masses. Or deliberately giving a outlying forecast to sway the expected figure of some of the economic data.
(d) Construct certain indexes, e.g. Sucker Sentiment Index, or sponsor forums to move the masses one way or another through proxy posts.
(e) More blatant means, e.g. during newsbreak, e.g. Euro is surging, create a gap on the chart, to induce pple to short. And then mirically, the gap disappear after 5 mins when the price is way above the gap.
(f) Omit important news break from the events calender. E.g. a lot of the brokers calender omitted Bernanke speech last Thursday.
(g) Freeze the data, widen the bid-ask spreads, e.g 20-30 pips to grab whatever stops are out there.
and many more....
Now, you tell me. How can you win ?
If you go to a poker game, and you dun know who is the Ponzi, probably you are the one.
If you have questions or want to find out more, email me: dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
Your broker takes your trade and then warehouse them, it adds up all trades, plus and minus, to arrive at a net position. Then they hedge that position with the bank. It is the banks that would trade with the market. Of course, the streaming data you see does come from the bank, if not filtered by the broker first.
The brokers and banks make their monies through the spread, e.g. the 1 pip for Euro and the bulk of the monies comes from the stops taken. As time goes on, your capital diminishes throug the stops.
Of course, there are time you make. But the odds is against you. It is like going to the casinos, where the casinos operator is given an advantage by virtue of the game setup.
How does the broker has an advantage over you ?
(a) collaborating among brokers, work over a 24x5 to setup the market for a false move, then to reverse and take the stops. They execute deceptive trades, e.g. knowing Euro would rise after Bernanke speech, they move the markets lower jointly. E.g Euro was forced down to 1.4660 before the spike to 1.4815 on Thursday. Making Euro looks "weak".
(b) prepare the masses for the wrong position. Giving seemingly correct commentaries by so called reputable analyst. E.g. making calls for Euro bearishness ahead of last Thursday Bernanke speech. So that those busy part-time traders read the commentary and short Euro accordingly, especially when the Euro "seems" to look weak. That analyst would disappear for a while and the next analyst come onboard. That is why they bankroll a team of "analysts". These analysts are no more experienced than you or me.
(c) Insider information, e.g. leaks of data known only to the banks, and not masses. Or deliberately giving a outlying forecast to sway the expected figure of some of the economic data.
(d) Construct certain indexes, e.g. Sucker Sentiment Index, or sponsor forums to move the masses one way or another through proxy posts.
(e) More blatant means, e.g. during newsbreak, e.g. Euro is surging, create a gap on the chart, to induce pple to short. And then mirically, the gap disappear after 5 mins when the price is way above the gap.
(f) Omit important news break from the events calender. E.g. a lot of the brokers calender omitted Bernanke speech last Thursday.
(g) Freeze the data, widen the bid-ask spreads, e.g 20-30 pips to grab whatever stops are out there.
and many more....
Now, you tell me. How can you win ?
If you go to a poker game, and you dun know who is the Ponzi, probably you are the one.
If you have questions or want to find out more, email me: dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
Friday, January 11, 2008
11 Jan one winning streak since Xmas
My subscriber say today:
"good call on the action today. i followed your lead and was very pleased with the outcome. you are the man. br"
Indeed, for those following the Euro call, it was very profitable, easily 150 pips.
for my GBP call it falls short of expectation nonetheless. All my Euro calls have been accurate since Xmas.
Gold now above 890.
Want the signals early, subscribe at a fee, email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
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Update 12:20 am ET
---------------------
Interesting Asia market did not follow US lead upward. You can see some newspaper editorial in Asia asking investors to cash out.
Japan market is now admitting recession effects. Soon other markets would follow: Hong Kong, Korea, South East Asia, Singapore, Malaysia, etc. And then China.
HK property developers Cheung Kong, etc. are worth to watch.
Euro not moving much, just below 1.4830.
"good call on the action today. i followed your lead and was very pleased with the outcome. you are the man. br"
Indeed, for those following the Euro call, it was very profitable, easily 150 pips.
for my GBP call it falls short of expectation nonetheless. All my Euro calls have been accurate since Xmas.
Gold now above 890.
Want the signals early, subscribe at a fee, email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
Pre-FOMC promotion:
150 USD for 1 month of trial.
250 USD for 2 months (saving 50 USD)
380 USD for 3 months (saving 70 USD)
Update 12:20 am ET
---------------------
Interesting Asia market did not follow US lead upward. You can see some newspaper editorial in Asia asking investors to cash out.
Japan market is now admitting recession effects. Soon other markets would follow: Hong Kong, Korea, South East Asia, Singapore, Malaysia, etc. And then China.
HK property developers Cheung Kong, etc. are worth to watch.
Euro not moving much, just below 1.4830.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
10 Jan the last Mochican aka Euro Bull / Bubble Talk
Well, I guess I am the last Euro Bull in the market, as usual. Public available commentaries are talking about Euro weakness.
Well, sometimes, that is how your broker make from you.
I trade with the Bank.
Would post another chart close to ECB rate annoucement.
Watch this space.
If you want to get the charts earlier for postions, email me for feed subscription. dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
The market has shifted focus to the HK property developers this week, as the bonds issued by these developers have yield higher than those US developers, e.g. KB Home. I.e another big bubble is out there in HK, Shanghai, Singapore, etc.
Essentially the entire Asia economies can be summarised in a paragraph:
US and European companies invest in Asia, with technology and capital, to manufacture and produce for the world markets. In the process Asians can afford homes build by the property developers, who leveraged to build more home and derive higher profits. The developers then invest in equities pushing the stock markets higher, to drain the people of their savings. In the process, it draws in the Oil monies, Russian and China monies. It is a bubble inside the bubble inside the bubble. When the innest bubble burst, every other bubbles would burst as well.
Incidentally the HK developers, CK, SHK fell today.
Long Euro 1.4620-50 (now at 1.4668)
Stoploss 1.4600
Target 1.4900
Long GBPUSD 1.9450-60 (now at 1.9621)
Stoploss 1.9430
Target 2.000
No hurry wait for some more USD strength later in the day, and then that is for USD this time.
Euro and GBP is holding, while USD is determined on a aceelerated path of cut.
If you agree with my call, click on any of the links to give me a indication.
If the ECB thinks that Euro should not rise further versus USD, then unfortunately, Oil and Gold would unshackle Euro and USD in its next rise.
Update 10:30 am
------------------
indeed it is a Bull Flag breakout. Euro now at 1.4737 almost 100 pips from the pit.
Gold also recover now till 881.
Wherever Euro is going next, those who followed your broker forecast and shorted Euro, you would have been stopped out by now.
imagine is you are broker, you think you can bring dole back to your family, pay the dozen analyst on your payroll, maintain the software, pay the bank, pay the calls, pay the telemarketeers on just 2 pips spread ?
It is 50% of (broker, banks, true pro) vs the other 50% (they call themselves by different names, like newbies, freshies, rookies, retiree, hardworker)
how can you as an individual possibly get monies from the other sides armed with supercomputers, PhD, lobbyist, insiders ?
After a while, you realise it is a losing game in the short run, if not the long run.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
9 Jan Market forcing Bernanke hand
SPX at 1390. Drop below 1360, it is HELL break lose. AND probably it conincides with Bernanke speech on coming Thursday.
Glass ceilings everywhere in forex. EURUSD capped at 1.4730, GBPUSD at 1.9830. Ideal environment for day traders.
I have a events calender at the end of this page of commentaries.
For those who would like to know my calls and positions, and need information on Technical Analysis, you may subscribe at a fee. Email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
Otherwise, pls feel free to explore the Links here, with FREE education, FREE trading platform.
Update 9:10 pm ET
--------------------
McCain won New Hampshire. Comeback old kid.
Now we wait for Obama and Clinton. Probably market comes to standstill to watch the primaries.
Today is the FIRST day of trading for the China Gold Futures contract on the China commodities exchange. Price movement is capped at +- 5% of the previous day. The Gold has been rising in anticipation of this new group of GAMBLERS.
Welcome, a new era has arrived for GOLD.
Update 11:20 am ET
---------------------
The focus is going to shft to Bush visit to MiddleEast. It is like a lamb going to the Lion's den. the recent Iran and US navy mini-clash on Homuz, may just be a routine Iran check on passing vessels on Homuz, it smacks of US media cooking story.
Now, you want the lamb, well done or medium rare ?
For people to pile up on 200USD oil options, there must be a happening. People can plan, but Divine would decide if it happens.
Update 10:35 am ET
---------------------
Gold pulling back towards 870 after touching 890.
Poole was sounding optimistics. Yesterday Plosse was saying rebound in 3/4 Qtr. Poole says that USD would not drop all the way, because US have a stable economy.
If these words were uttered last yr, Oct/Nov, it is still convincing. However after the weak NFP, drastic rise in unemployment rate, SPX touching 1390, Countrywide "near" bankrupt, signs of subprime spreading. Saying "STABLE ECONOMY" is absolutely "BRUTAL".
We have flood in Misouri, hurriances in midwest, snowstorm, portions of Americans is living in peril. Hundreds thousands pondering where to get bread for tomorrow, if not the next mortgage payment.
Why ? all these OPTIMISTICS talks ? simply because Equities are making new low. FED wants to talk up the Equities. Talk is free, like this commentary of mine.
Update 11:00 am ET
---------------------
Euro making new low 1.4645, GBP into 1.9569 ( at last trying to complete the last wave).
All making new lows ahead of the big day (ECB/BoE/ and Bernanke speaks).
Glass ceilings everywhere in forex. EURUSD capped at 1.4730, GBPUSD at 1.9830. Ideal environment for day traders.
I have a events calender at the end of this page of commentaries.
For those who would like to know my calls and positions, and need information on Technical Analysis, you may subscribe at a fee. Email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
Otherwise, pls feel free to explore the Links here, with FREE education, FREE trading platform.
Update 9:10 pm ET
--------------------
McCain won New Hampshire. Comeback old kid.
Now we wait for Obama and Clinton. Probably market comes to standstill to watch the primaries.
Today is the FIRST day of trading for the China Gold Futures contract on the China commodities exchange. Price movement is capped at +- 5% of the previous day. The Gold has been rising in anticipation of this new group of GAMBLERS.
Welcome, a new era has arrived for GOLD.
Update 11:20 am ET
---------------------
The focus is going to shft to Bush visit to MiddleEast. It is like a lamb going to the Lion's den. the recent Iran and US navy mini-clash on Homuz, may just be a routine Iran check on passing vessels on Homuz, it smacks of US media cooking story.
Now, you want the lamb, well done or medium rare ?
For people to pile up on 200USD oil options, there must be a happening. People can plan, but Divine would decide if it happens.
Update 10:35 am ET
---------------------
Gold pulling back towards 870 after touching 890.
Poole was sounding optimistics. Yesterday Plosse was saying rebound in 3/4 Qtr. Poole says that USD would not drop all the way, because US have a stable economy.
If these words were uttered last yr, Oct/Nov, it is still convincing. However after the weak NFP, drastic rise in unemployment rate, SPX touching 1390, Countrywide "near" bankrupt, signs of subprime spreading. Saying "STABLE ECONOMY" is absolutely "BRUTAL".
We have flood in Misouri, hurriances in midwest, snowstorm, portions of Americans is living in peril. Hundreds thousands pondering where to get bread for tomorrow, if not the next mortgage payment.
Why ? all these OPTIMISTICS talks ? simply because Equities are making new low. FED wants to talk up the Equities. Talk is free, like this commentary of mine.
Update 11:00 am ET
---------------------
Euro making new low 1.4645, GBP into 1.9569 ( at last trying to complete the last wave).
All making new lows ahead of the big day (ECB/BoE/ and Bernanke speaks).
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
8 Jan market in contemplation
This 2 new trading days of the new year is largely characterised by gloom. We see Marc Faber, Jim Rogers on media toking their wares. Hank has come out to acknowledge the slowdown, stop short of "recession" and without any mention of stimulus package.
Why is that so ? US has run out of monies. With the floods in Nevada, heavy snow in midwest, California, US is actually in a mini-calamity of sort. Falling bridges, etc. Monies is needed to save those facing imminent dangers. It would be fiscally irresponsible to keep printing more monies.
Hence Hank is likely to sit out the slowdown with some gesture packages. (like the SuperFund he proposed).
If Obama is going to win New Hampshire, while the Republican do not have a clear candidate for presidency. Expect the market to sway towards a Democrat win, i.e. Wall-street negative. The Democrats would reinstall the taxes, and cut fiscal spending.
Imagine from now till November, we have 11 months of uncertainty. And as Hank has always emphasised, it is a long drawn process to get over the housing slump.
Tom, Dick and Harry who bought AAPL, GOOG would see their share prices slowly fall back to when they bought it. (i.e. their monies went to nowhere for 2 years).
As for the forex market. the trend is clear. YEN is on a strengthening path. The Japanese are now wary that their assets are so cheap to be acquired by some other Soverign Wealth Fund.
As for EURO, it is facing an upward climb, as a lot of Funds have shorted from 1.4960 level. they are trying all means to stall the EURO rally. However the prize is there for the taking.
GBP is no longer great, however a wild card nonetheless. Possibly the French would contemplate buying the Bickingham Palace soon.
I have clear target in mind. AND to be fair to my readers, it is definitely not a straight line up, with some heart wrenching moments along the way.
if you want to know my calls and signals, subscribe at a fee and email dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
Meanwhile, feel free to explore the Links here, you would be surprised at what you may find.
Update 7:20 am Euro now at 1.4725
------------------------------------
Meryll Lynch and Morgan Stanley just made calls for US entering recession in 1Qtr 2008. Except Lehman Brothers.
Wonder who are the people wanting to buy USD. What use can it have in a time of recession ?
may be as food stamp for the poor.
Hank Paulson speaking at 8am. probably the market would show him some respect with a pull back in Euro buying.
Update 8:24 am Hank
----------------------
I hope I didnot hear it wrongly. Hank Paulason was on the CNBC saying that the slowdown would last till yr end. And then on the wire, I see Plosser saying growth to return in Qtr 3 and 4.
Hmmm..........
Update 8:41 am Hank, Marty
------------------------------
the duo, with the CNBC are making jokes on the Strong Dollar. The point is that with the weak dollar, exports have been a pillar of the current economy. At least it prevents US from sliding into straight forward recession. Hank, Marty aknowledges that.
The read in-between the lines is that a weaker dollar is most welcome.
Monday, January 7, 2008
7 Jan turning point ?
Coming week would be the turning point, as the market moves closer to admitting a recession. A jump of unemployment rate from 4.7% to 5.0% is a significant event. It signifies the economy in recession state.
In fact based on the SPX, it tested 1411. If it falls through, it would test 1380, then 1360. Today, everybody is stepping back, Euro, Crude, Gold, etc. All waiting to be flagged off.
If you like what you read, do click on the links where you find additional FREE information, FREE education and FREE trading platforms.
The Central Bankers are patting themselves on the back, when they claim that the tension has receded. Gordon Brown says that keeping inflation low helps to ease the credit crisis, i.e. Higher rates to keep inflation low ??
I guess everybody is taking a rest with RETRACEMENT, and waiting for the next signal (anyway, I give the first signal to my subscribers).
If you want detailed chart analysis, with my positions, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for fee subscription of my newsletter.
Update 11:36 am ET
---------------------
the biggies are trying to flush the system. the down moves are sharper than the up moves. The biggies trying to form a base at 1.4660 meanwhile. For quick gains, small shorts from Resistance. Meanwhile the resistance is at 1.4730, base 1.4660, a 70 pips range.
FTN Financial Christopher Low just on the national Tv talking about more write-downs coming from Japanese bank (Financial Year end only in March) and the Asian tigers. Also the subprime crisis is only half-way through. It would be interested to see how the shy Asian bankers handle their side of the story.
For those who are long Euro, you need to have a strong heart.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
January Subscription Notice
A daily newsletter can be subscribed at a fee. In the newsletter, I provide detailed Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Daily calls on major currency pairs, commodities, such as Gold/Silver, and Equities.
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The content of this blog is based upon information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy.
6 Jan Daylight has come, so has Recession
Commercial first. If you like what you read, pls click on the links here to explore FREE education, FREE trading platform, hopefully leading to FREE PROFITS. Those who want subscription at a fee can email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com.
Daylight has come, after 2 weeks of darkness prevail when USD was tossed from its height at 1.4311 into the abyss at 1.4830, a 500 pips drop. The people or vampires who did the pushing has disappeared on Friday, sold Euro to those rushing to long Euros after NFP.
However, a greater monster has appeared: Recession. No media, government officials or Fed for that matter can hide the fact that US is now in recession. (the official recognition of a recession is by the department of economics statistics, which would be 1 year later). In fact a deeper analysis of the employment figures, and methods would reveal that the actual figure may be even lower.
The subprime crisis is still far from over. With more revelation of losses emerging, and counter-party risks materialising, banks and financial institutions have more to disclose in coming months.
The housing oversupply is accelerating when those speculators can not longer afford to hold their multiple houses when credits are hard to come by. Schiller is forecasting the loss of real estate value is going to triple in coming years to $3 Trillion or more.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3111659.ece
There is a worthwhile article by Professor Brad Delong: Three cures for three crises
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/delong73
First type of crisis: liquidity crisis caused by declining confidence in the financial system,
cured by Central Bank lending
Second type: falling asset prices, cured by monetary easing (current Fed mode)
Third type: bursting buble, cured by nationalising the financial system or inflaiton.
So far the market is only measuredly pricing in the second type of crisis, not the third.
The media and government would continue to talk up the economy, with a pending Bush annoucement of some form of economic stimulus.
In coming week, we may see Fed officials shifting stance to growth concern, laying grounds for Bush stimulus and accelerated cuts. Possibly the Fed target rate would be at 3.25% before summer ends. That is inline with Ben's academic belief in deliverying the maximum impact and not in a measured pace.
We would have a year of world wide inflation, while governments seek measure to offset the effects.
The markets would start to price in a US recession and an accelerated rate cut schedule by the FED in coming weeks.
And the challenge now lies on the Emerging Asia economies. Would they be able to decouple from the US recession ?
Asian economies are essentially export economies, China, Japan, Korea, India, Malaysia, Singapore, etc. The manufacturing bases are in a large part investment of US and European companies. (investment in terms of technologies, capitals, etc). With the biggest consumer US and Europe consumer markets shrinking back, the US and European companies would cut back on their production. Obviously any growth in the Asian consumers cannot offset the cut.
Moroever the Asian economies have to struggle with high oil, and secondary inflation in food, wages, etc. Incidentally there is a rampage in Malaysia this week for cooking oil out of fear of price hikes. We are going to see more and more of inflation scares running in those economies.
The decoupling of the Asian economies from US is just a myth propagated to keep investment in the region alive.
Contrary to main stream thinking, Asian currencies may take a dive sometime this year, with a strengthening USD. And that would bring on another set of problems. We would cross the bridge when we come to it.
When all economies come to a standstill, then we would have a falling oil, commodities prices and with it a return of inflation to normal.
The recovery of the economies would be long drawn.
What I have written is contrarian. Mainstream thinking is a slowing US in the first half and then a recovery in the second half. How often does mainstream gets it right ?
Daylight has come, after 2 weeks of darkness prevail when USD was tossed from its height at 1.4311 into the abyss at 1.4830, a 500 pips drop. The people or vampires who did the pushing has disappeared on Friday, sold Euro to those rushing to long Euros after NFP.
However, a greater monster has appeared: Recession. No media, government officials or Fed for that matter can hide the fact that US is now in recession. (the official recognition of a recession is by the department of economics statistics, which would be 1 year later). In fact a deeper analysis of the employment figures, and methods would reveal that the actual figure may be even lower.
The subprime crisis is still far from over. With more revelation of losses emerging, and counter-party risks materialising, banks and financial institutions have more to disclose in coming months.
The housing oversupply is accelerating when those speculators can not longer afford to hold their multiple houses when credits are hard to come by. Schiller is forecasting the loss of real estate value is going to triple in coming years to $3 Trillion or more.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3111659.ece
There is a worthwhile article by Professor Brad Delong: Three cures for three crises
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/delong73
First type of crisis: liquidity crisis caused by declining confidence in the financial system,
cured by Central Bank lending
Second type: falling asset prices, cured by monetary easing (current Fed mode)
Third type: bursting buble, cured by nationalising the financial system or inflaiton.
So far the market is only measuredly pricing in the second type of crisis, not the third.
The media and government would continue to talk up the economy, with a pending Bush annoucement of some form of economic stimulus.
In coming week, we may see Fed officials shifting stance to growth concern, laying grounds for Bush stimulus and accelerated cuts. Possibly the Fed target rate would be at 3.25% before summer ends. That is inline with Ben's academic belief in deliverying the maximum impact and not in a measured pace.
We would have a year of world wide inflation, while governments seek measure to offset the effects.
The markets would start to price in a US recession and an accelerated rate cut schedule by the FED in coming weeks.
And the challenge now lies on the Emerging Asia economies. Would they be able to decouple from the US recession ?
Asian economies are essentially export economies, China, Japan, Korea, India, Malaysia, Singapore, etc. The manufacturing bases are in a large part investment of US and European companies. (investment in terms of technologies, capitals, etc). With the biggest consumer US and Europe consumer markets shrinking back, the US and European companies would cut back on their production. Obviously any growth in the Asian consumers cannot offset the cut.
Moroever the Asian economies have to struggle with high oil, and secondary inflation in food, wages, etc. Incidentally there is a rampage in Malaysia this week for cooking oil out of fear of price hikes. We are going to see more and more of inflation scares running in those economies.
The decoupling of the Asian economies from US is just a myth propagated to keep investment in the region alive.
Contrary to main stream thinking, Asian currencies may take a dive sometime this year, with a strengthening USD. And that would bring on another set of problems. We would cross the bridge when we come to it.
When all economies come to a standstill, then we would have a falling oil, commodities prices and with it a return of inflation to normal.
The recovery of the economies would be long drawn.
What I have written is contrarian. Mainstream thinking is a slowing US in the first half and then a recovery in the second half. How often does mainstream gets it right ?
Saturday, January 5, 2008
5 Jan CUT CUT CUT 75bp
Bernanke got full marks in 2006 when he resisted pressures and keep hiking to 5.25% and pause. Inflation then was mild, economy was in Goldilock. He was just in the eye of the hurricane.
The last 50bp cut was given to forestall the credit crisis not exactly for the economy. And then in last FOMC he cut only 25bp, b'cos Hank was visiting China, and it is not nice to show your depositor (China buy US treasuries) that you are on a accelerated rate cut schedule.
With election in November and knowing that rate cut has a lag of 6 months to a year to have a impact on economy, Ben has to accelerate the cut to benefit the Republican, instead of letting the harvest goes to the next President.
With the impending FOMC on 30 Jan, the next one on 18 Mar, there leaves no choice, but to cut 50 bp/75bp of on 30 Jan.
However, we may have a call for a inter-meeting rate cut announcement, perhaps on the week starting 13 Jan. Then 50 bp would be appropriate.
The difference between Recession and Slowdown is a matter of confidence of the masses. With such agressive cuts, the public would acknowledge that the gloom and doom.
That brings us to the topic of ECB. Trichet has been most reluctant to cut, as he understands the behviourial economics aspect of rate cut. He wants to keep people in Europe buoyant, feel good and be productive. Overall Europe is still doing fine, just showing signs of slowing down.
While BoE is an opposite. With the recent cut, London is full of gloom and doom. Football is no longer fun. Mervyn mishandled the Northern Rock debacle and has lost the ability to forestall any further rate cut. However London is likely the one to emerge from the slump earlier than Europe or US.
Hence next week 10 Jan is key.
If you want to position your trade and helpful technical analysis to aid in your decision, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com to subscribe. 150 USD/month for 3 months.
Meanwhile, if you like what you read, click on the links to explore some free materials on forex education, trading platform, news, etc.
The last 50bp cut was given to forestall the credit crisis not exactly for the economy. And then in last FOMC he cut only 25bp, b'cos Hank was visiting China, and it is not nice to show your depositor (China buy US treasuries) that you are on a accelerated rate cut schedule.
With election in November and knowing that rate cut has a lag of 6 months to a year to have a impact on economy, Ben has to accelerate the cut to benefit the Republican, instead of letting the harvest goes to the next President.
With the impending FOMC on 30 Jan, the next one on 18 Mar, there leaves no choice, but to cut 50 bp/75bp of on 30 Jan.
However, we may have a call for a inter-meeting rate cut announcement, perhaps on the week starting 13 Jan. Then 50 bp would be appropriate.
The difference between Recession and Slowdown is a matter of confidence of the masses. With such agressive cuts, the public would acknowledge that the gloom and doom.
That brings us to the topic of ECB. Trichet has been most reluctant to cut, as he understands the behviourial economics aspect of rate cut. He wants to keep people in Europe buoyant, feel good and be productive. Overall Europe is still doing fine, just showing signs of slowing down.
While BoE is an opposite. With the recent cut, London is full of gloom and doom. Football is no longer fun. Mervyn mishandled the Northern Rock debacle and has lost the ability to forestall any further rate cut. However London is likely the one to emerge from the slump earlier than Europe or US.
Hence next week 10 Jan is key.
If you want to position your trade and helpful technical analysis to aid in your decision, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com to subscribe. 150 USD/month for 3 months.
Meanwhile, if you like what you read, click on the links to explore some free materials on forex education, trading platform, news, etc.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
4 Jan GOD save the QUEEN
Cate Blanchett in the movie "Elizabeth the Golden Age"
Do you know what GBP stands for ? it says GREAT Britian Pound. When the Pound was GREAT, one GBP is worth one pound of GOLD.
Now GBP is heading into demise, thanx to its countryman.
When it was Elizabeth I rule, Britian rule supreme, and the German, French, Yankess, Sultans, Chinese came and kneel before the QUEEN.
When it was Elizabeth I rule, Britian rule supreme, and the German, French, Yankess, Sultans, Chinese came and kneel before the QUEEN.
With a weakening currency, the natural choice would be for UK to join Eurozone to fight the inflation with a strong Euro. And UK would surrender its century old treasury to the ECB.
Hence, GOD save the QUEEN.
yours sincerely,
(soon to be knighted, Sir DOLLARPRO)
visit the site http://www.elizabeththegoldenage.net/site.html for more information on the movie "Elizabeth the Golden Age".
some commercials first:Meanwhile, feel FREE to explore the links here. You would be surprised at the FREE education, FREE trading platform. That is how we learn, eventully leading to FREE profits. Click on the links if you like what you are reading here.
some commercials first:Meanwhile, feel FREE to explore the links here. You would be surprised at the FREE education, FREE trading platform. That is how we learn, eventully leading to FREE profits. Click on the links if you like what you are reading here.
Update 6am ET
----------------
some new chart for you guys. The famous Madame Butterfly. It is going to be a stops hunting session.
Update 8:20 am ET
--------------------
Euro rallying higher at 1.4730, leak of a worse number ? or a ploy to suck into the longs ?
Update 8:31 am ET
--------------------
18K job 5%
ok, 50bp cut for 30 Jan FOMC. USD is toast.
Recession is oready here. (the media and government is masking it)
Some economist are already out there writing that governments should let inflation run to save the economy. i.e. FED would cut to 3% and lower.
Update 10:40 am ET
---------------------
Euro stall at 1.4830 and retrace. should have flushed out some late long, and now slowly building towards 1.4850/60.
Monday should be another thin day. Then perhaps wait for 10 Jan ECB and BoE.
If you want to know where to take profit or where to position for the next trade, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for subscription with message header "subscribe".
I have been banned from the other forum, b'cos I made the right call (means broker no stops to hunt today). Hence I am spend all my time on my blog.
3 Jan OIL at 100 now. USD to 1.7000 ?
some commercials first:Meanwhile, feel FREE to explore the links here. You would be surprised at the FREE education, FREE trading platform. That is how we learning, eventully leading to FREE profits.
If you like what you have read, click on the google links and show me your support.
for subscription, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
I have my subscribers complaining, why am I giving out so many free signals. I told them that my subscribers got the signals way before anybody else, hence able to lock in positions much earlier and maximise the gain, or advoid making the wrong trade.
By the time, I post the chart here, the move is almost half way through. and when I post it in other forums, it is already 3/4 way through. And if they follow when the move is about to complete, their stops would be taken in a retracement. Hence the Right Signal at the Right Time is most crucial. There are hundreds on free signals on the internet, but can you trade on them ?
Afterall, I do show Tender Loving Care (TLC) to my subscribers.
Now Oil has touched 100 USD. Now what is the deal ? The OPEC and Russia etc are wary of America stockpiling the strategic oil reserve.
The OPEC hence refuses to increase production, hence Oil would not see any downside soon.
The strategic oil reserve also hold the key to supporting the Equities. Once US announces the release of oil reserve, Oil would drop and Equities would bounce. Probably Gold would drop as well as a retracement.
Now all factors are converging, Oil, USD, Equities, Commodities. As FED has lost its means to control the markets thru interest rates. US has to device another tool.
(FED uses the Interest Rate tool to save the neck of some mortgage and banking hotshots, and the Interest Rate tool has lost its credibility. Even if FED cuts to 3% tomorrow, the markets would just give a knee jerk reaction. Hence for that matter, the US currencies is worth even lesser than what it is now. Perhaps in the region of 1.7 to a Euro based on the measurement of TRUST).
However this is a flaw in this scheme of things. US has just handed the trigger of the gun to the Iranians and the radicals. Now Iran and radicals have a larger influence on world economy. With a Homuz blockade, or blowup of pipeline, hijack of oil rigs, kidnap of oil workers, all these events would now pull the strings of world Equities.
What a shame, US, FOMC has just surrendered the world to the radicals. How sad.
Update 11:35pm ET 2 Jan
---------------------------
In Asia market time, one of the broker keep pumping out news of European market fall, European growth concern, (likely to agitate the Asians into selling Euros)
If you want to subscribe, send email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with the message header "subscribe". It shall be 450 USD for 3 months. You can easily earn back the fee on your first trade.
If you like what you have read, click on the google links and show me your support.
for subscription, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".
I have my subscribers complaining, why am I giving out so many free signals. I told them that my subscribers got the signals way before anybody else, hence able to lock in positions much earlier and maximise the gain, or advoid making the wrong trade.
By the time, I post the chart here, the move is almost half way through. and when I post it in other forums, it is already 3/4 way through. And if they follow when the move is about to complete, their stops would be taken in a retracement. Hence the Right Signal at the Right Time is most crucial. There are hundreds on free signals on the internet, but can you trade on them ?
Afterall, I do show Tender Loving Care (TLC) to my subscribers.
Now Oil has touched 100 USD. Now what is the deal ? The OPEC and Russia etc are wary of America stockpiling the strategic oil reserve.
The OPEC hence refuses to increase production, hence Oil would not see any downside soon.
The strategic oil reserve also hold the key to supporting the Equities. Once US announces the release of oil reserve, Oil would drop and Equities would bounce. Probably Gold would drop as well as a retracement.
Now all factors are converging, Oil, USD, Equities, Commodities. As FED has lost its means to control the markets thru interest rates. US has to device another tool.
(FED uses the Interest Rate tool to save the neck of some mortgage and banking hotshots, and the Interest Rate tool has lost its credibility. Even if FED cuts to 3% tomorrow, the markets would just give a knee jerk reaction. Hence for that matter, the US currencies is worth even lesser than what it is now. Perhaps in the region of 1.7 to a Euro based on the measurement of TRUST).
However this is a flaw in this scheme of things. US has just handed the trigger of the gun to the Iranians and the radicals. Now Iran and radicals have a larger influence on world economy. With a Homuz blockade, or blowup of pipeline, hijack of oil rigs, kidnap of oil workers, all these events would now pull the strings of world Equities.
What a shame, US, FOMC has just surrendered the world to the radicals. How sad.
Update 11:35pm ET 2 Jan
---------------------------
In Asia market time, one of the broker keep pumping out news of European market fall, European growth concern, (likely to agitate the Asians into selling Euros)
If you want to subscribe, send email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with the message header "subscribe". It shall be 450 USD for 3 months. You can easily earn back the fee on your first trade.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
2 Jan Recession Recession Recession Recession....
picture taken at 2 am ET. Those who want it earlier, pls subscribe. email "subscribe" to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
I changed the title to "RECESSION" from the former "LOST". as I heard 4 hosts on the national TV spoke the "R" word almost total 10 times within a span of 3 minutes.
I think by the time government and media admits that they are in recession is when the government exits.
some commercials first:
Meanwhile, feel FREE to explore the links here. You would be surprised at the FREE education, FREE trading platform. That is how we learning, eventully leading to FREE profits.
EURO did not break 1.4750 as most were eagerly awaiting 1.4850. Anyway, I saw 1.4750 as the ceiling, however it broke through my base and fell harder than I thought to 1.4570.
Some good buying of Euros happened through Asia and Europe time.
Did you see the BUTTERFLY in the picture below. This picture was taken at about 2am ET.
Market sees a weaker ISM manufacturing at 50.4 vs previous 50.8.
The risk is that cheaper Dollar has been spuring the produciton. However media since Asia open has been lambasting a weaker dollar, b'cos of a possible slowdown in manufacturing.
Hence which is which ? possibly you would need Elliot Wave to ascertain if the rise from 1.4311 has been completed.
However, the surest trade is the Short GBP. GBP is awfully weak, in the absense of any Santa Claus. If GBP weakens further against EUR, UK may be forced to join Eurozone to counter the possible high inflation due to a weakening currency and economic slump. The inevitable union of UK and Europe may come in 2008, under the leadership of Gordon, the guy who sold UK Gold at 250 USD/oz. (now Gold is at 840, just a few yrs later).
One important theme the media is chanting is the EMERGING ECONOMIES, and of course the ASIAN CURRENCIES. Incidentally, Singapore has an unexpected lower GDP figure today.
Update 10:25 am
------------------
as my subscribers already know, I am looking for higher Euro today, and 1.4860 in target. The pullback on Monday 31 Dec, was just to replenish stock for the Euro bulls.
Want to know what is the next move ?
Update 11:35 am
-----------------
expect Euro to stall below 1.4750, and then climb over it after FOMC minutes, these are stale news. If it shows some pple toking about 50bp cut, it would add fuel to Euro rally up.
going for my lunch, no more update. Good luck....... wish you all had made lot of pips.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
1 Jan Happy Volatlile new year
Volatility is the word, for all instruments, Forex, Equities, characteristics of a terminating run in all markets.
Jesus never disappeared, HE is everywhere, every time. Just like our Euro Bulls there are just around the corner.
Subscription fee is now 150 USD/mth for 3 months. Once I cleared all those 2007 subscription backlog, the 2008 rate would kick in.
Meanwhile, feel FREE to explore the links here. You would be surprised at the FREE education, FREE trading platform. That is how we learning, eventully leading to FREE profits.
I have added a link to the old charts at I use. Want current day charts, you got to subscribe.
Good luck and HAPPY NEW YEAR.
Jesus never disappeared, HE is everywhere, every time. Just like our Euro Bulls there are just around the corner.
Subscription fee is now 150 USD/mth for 3 months. Once I cleared all those 2007 subscription backlog, the 2008 rate would kick in.
Meanwhile, feel FREE to explore the links here. You would be surprised at the FREE education, FREE trading platform. That is how we learning, eventully leading to FREE profits.
I have added a link to the old charts at I use. Want current day charts, you got to subscribe.
Good luck and HAPPY NEW YEAR.
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