this is indeed a wild bull, in the face of 6 banks needing capital, Chrysler bankrupt, Swine Flu. When it ends, it is going to be a big bang. The harder it goes up, the harder it falls.
The other objective of this bull, is to weed out the shorts. It starts to pay more and more to weed out the last remnants bears out there.
Looking at GS, see more block selling than buying. Block as in more than one thousand shares. like I see a big 5055 queue selling at 130 on the dot.
While the buying are more like small quantities, 100, 200, 300. Indeed we see a retail bull reaction.
The next down move would be heart wrenching for the retails, another generation of investors lost.
For the bears, you just wish the stock market just keep going higher. the higher it goes, the more pain is the fall.
The easiest way and more lucrative is another plunge.
USD index stage a rebound, Gold is holding 881, some obvious support there. EURO bounced off 1.3200.
Would the next big move be: Stock drop, Euro rise, Gold rise, Oil drop ?
Would not rule out SPX to 900.
GOLD and SPX on par again today at 883 to 886. Literally GOD and Devil kiss today, the last time was OPEX day 17 April.
The battle of Angel and Demon for 2nd time. Would there be a 3rd time, or they part ways as of today 30 April ?
My Gold Bug friend called me this morning, and said he is selling some of his paper Gold. Guess that is a contrarian signal. The retail is tired of holding Gold and GOld is not moving at all. We are going into the traditional lull months of Gold.
Also would "Sell in May, come back in September" norm happens for Stocks ?
Thursday, April 30, 2009
30 April pre-FOMC update
Euro touching the downtrend line from last rebound high from 1.6 to 1.4700, now at 1.3330. The decision is now on the hands of Bernanke if he wants to sacrifice USD and reflate the stock market further.
SPX still holding below 875. While NDX has touched its 200 days moving average and holding below it.
Mexico economy is now heading towards a tailspin by virtue of the swine flu. First death has happened in US.
Now Bernanke has to make the tough call whether to inflate the market further by announcing more buying of treasuries, paying interest on treasuries.
Otherwise, the much awaited correction to the current bear market rally / or continuation of the bear market would start.
However a fierce short covering may happen after FOMC in 1.5 hours time.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
29 April Green shoots and Dafodil
So much talk of greet shoots, glimmer of hope, and now we read "paying the price for waiting on the sidelines", "use dollar cost averaging", "emerging markets and developed market is now on par, buy emerging markets".
Today coming we have GDP 1st Qtr, and FOMC meeting decision. The results of the 4 May results are semi-known, as in BoA and Citi are the 2 casualties, while the rests pass the test with distinctions.
Stress Test Scam
----------------
The stress test is a confidence building exercise. It gives something for the market to look forward to, extending the current rally beyond Obiwan 100 days in office (his 100 hundred days expire on 30 April). The result is supposed to be known only on 4 May though the banks have been given prelims last Friday, and are on gag orders.
FED has picked 19 banks, and as I read, the candidates of the 19 banks seem to be a fluid list, as in certain banks get dropped off half way, and others added. The baddies get spare, while the good ones get invitied to make the results sparkling.
Geithner has on last Tuesday said most banks have sufficient capital and triggered a rally off the 826 low.
The Obiwan administration is a giant PR machine with illustrious staff like Emmanuel, Summers, etc. Every moves is a calculated move to build confidence in the markets.
Indeed it worked, side monies are now flowing into the market. PPIP seems to get the vote from Blackrock, soon banks would join the queue. There is a very good article in a popular magazine describing the ways banks can enjoy the ride by bidding for its own toxic assets, offload them onto the taxpayers and generate guaranteed returns.
It is little wonder, that Soros said that banks can earn their way out of the crisis, however other sectors would suffer.
Hence do not belittle the US banks. However let us see how CitiGroup and BoA would survive this call for capital. I suspect the bondholders would have to take a cut in the coming weeks, when they have to convert debt to equities, not unlike Chrysler and General Motors.
Possibly the BondHolders are given a path to the promised land with rising share prices.
Mid Term election next year 2 Nov 2010
--------------------------------------
As you can see mid term election is 19 months away. Can a rally last for 19 months ? unlikely especially in a primary bear trend. Probably the FED and the Obama administration would engineer a market drop (not crash) to reset the rally and move it towards end of this year. Noting that we are in 7 weeks of continous rise, which is astounding by any standards.
Now why is this not a new Bull rally ? Reason being deleveraging is still going on, the tools and incentives for the past rally is now no longer relevant. Commercial Real Estates, Credit Card debts, Corporate Bond defaults are looming on the horizon. With FED quantitative easing, it would spark a rally leading to inflation further down the road (like in 2 years of so).
As Bernanke is a student of Depression, I am a student of the Kondratieff Cycle. A Kondratiff cycle last on average 30 years at least. And we are at the beginning of such a cycle. The bear trend would ends only in 2030 or so. Within this 20 years, we would see numerous mega Bear Rallies. Now we are in one of these.
SPX at 666 was the bottom, engineered by the Obiwan administration with help of the GS.
GS
-------
GS is a the strongest company on wallstreet, it is a partnership, its management are well checked. They made the wisest bet against the Mortgage Backed Securities when MBS and other credit instruments were soaring in 2007. They emerged relatively unscathed. Most of its business is in Trading and not investment advisories (there was a good article in Market Watch describing GS businss strategies).
Now it is betting big on a Market Recovery, having partook in engineering the turnaround at 666, when everybody was looking at 620-640. It is now buying every dips for the past weeks (evidence provided by some traders on its trading position and volumes).
GS want to seize the day and distinguish itself from other firms. Blankfein has openly stated that it always market its investment to market, they do not fuddle their books.
The current earnings of the major firms are just scams, by virtue of the new Mark to Model account rules. Hence this one time adjustments would not last into the 2nd quarters. Banks have now think of a new earning model going forward against calls for greater bad loan provisions.
To be objective, the chart patterns of GS is indeed intriguing. It has unfinished business. Hence caution warranted.
Pig and the market
------------------
There are calls in Indonesia that Swine Flu is engineered by the US pharma to rig their share prices higher through selling Flu medicine. It is intriguing at least that the source of the Swine Flu is still unknown. Though some has pointed to a Pig farm run by the US in Mexico.
It is amazing to say the least when Bird, Human and Swine strains merge to have the current efficient Human to Human strains.
The Swine flu is more infectious than the Bird Flu, as its starts infecting once the person get it, instead of having an incubation period. It has a proven record in 1918 Spanish fever.
The consolation is that now US, Europe and the Northern hemispheres countries are moving into Summer, not conducive for flu spread. Also so far no deaths have occured in countries other than Mexico.
My guess is that the Swine Flu would fizzle out in next couple of weeks, as in more cases but no fatalities. And it would come back with a vengeance in winter, with a more efficient and fatal strain. The 1918 Spanish Fly happened in 2 stages, with millions death in the 2nd stage.
Nonetheless it is a damper on the stock market, with the risk averse taking monies off the table.
The Objective
-------------
What is the objective of the current rally. Though we do not know when the current Bear Market Rally would end, we know the objective for sure.
The objectives is to rake in as much monies as possible, to prepare for the winter.
It is like the Bear scouring for food, storing them ahead of the winter.
Hence more firms would be making rights issue, issing new shares. It started with GS selling shares on its earning annoucements.
Incidentally those Asia countries whose SWF has spent their bullets are now asking its domestics affiliated firms to raise cash in open markets.
Even private equities firms are asking for more monies from its investors.
China is planning a rave of IPOs.
This is indeed what we called the Private Public Partnership. When the Governments run out of monies, it goes to the people.
The Means
----------
The means is simple to rig the share prices on a global level. Singapore traders have complained that late market buying of large illiquid shares at market close have marked index up. This happended back in HK on 6-9 March, when biggies rigged the HSBC to 30 HKD/share, way below the trading average of 35 on those days. Subsequently it was lambasted by Donald Tseng.
Markets have been lethargic to say the least, trying to follow every step of US markets, especially SPX. The biggies have been rotating their play, today Tech, tomorrow Financials. Though Energy is a drag.
If you follow the Biggies and day trade, it has been most profitable. Buy on dips, sell on strength within a day. Hence GS has a good bunch of followers to help its cause.
The Ends
---------
How would it all ends short term ? Newtons Law of Apples rule. Everthing that goes up have to fall. MY GUESS is that the market would stage a capitulation towards 880 to 900 take out the stops at 875, and then begins its next leg down.
How far down would it goes ? It can go to 668 to complete its retest. Though traders expects somewhere 770-780. Jim Rogers said 740. It may be just at 805.
805 to 850 is the neckline of the decade long double top SPX. Hence it is heavily defended by the Bulls.
Hence my advice is to stay out of the Biggies way, and wait for it at higher levels to cut the pain of waiting.
The Bear View
-------------
Hence we have seen that even the Swine Flu is not denting the spirits on the current rally (despite new headlines of market drops, blah, blah, blah). Or rather say that the market is not respecting the Flu.
When the pandemic threat becomes real, like rallying numbers of New Yorkers get infected and death happens. Then the market would drop like a rock into the deep abyss of 500, with HSI to test its SARS bottom at 8333, and FSSTI to test 1200.
Then the uncompleted Wave 5 of GS would be running in earnest. Possibly we would have nationalisation of at least one of the banks: BoA or Citigroup.
I.e. 17 April (last OPEX date) we have seen the high at 875, and it is started its wave 1, now in a whipsawing wave 2 and then big time wave 3 down into the navels.
The Mainstream view
-------------------
The rally would continue into 1000 (Jim Rogers have spoken of 1000 on National TV), albeit with a shallow pullback, to 740 to 810.
May be the FOMC 29 April would be the trigger, or the 4 May Stress Test news release. From a Astrologist standpoint, the pull back date may just be 8-11 May. Noting that 15 May is option expiry.
The Bull view
-------------
the market keeps on iching upwards, with sudden spurt e.g. after FOMC, and after 4 May stress test release. and with a fading Swine Flu worries, market just keeps inching upwards to 1000 to meets the 200 days moving average.
A lot of traders are positioned for this: short from 875, if exceed 875 long position with view towards 1000.
The pick is yours......
Today coming we have GDP 1st Qtr, and FOMC meeting decision. The results of the 4 May results are semi-known, as in BoA and Citi are the 2 casualties, while the rests pass the test with distinctions.
Stress Test Scam
----------------
The stress test is a confidence building exercise. It gives something for the market to look forward to, extending the current rally beyond Obiwan 100 days in office (his 100 hundred days expire on 30 April). The result is supposed to be known only on 4 May though the banks have been given prelims last Friday, and are on gag orders.
FED has picked 19 banks, and as I read, the candidates of the 19 banks seem to be a fluid list, as in certain banks get dropped off half way, and others added. The baddies get spare, while the good ones get invitied to make the results sparkling.
Geithner has on last Tuesday said most banks have sufficient capital and triggered a rally off the 826 low.
The Obiwan administration is a giant PR machine with illustrious staff like Emmanuel, Summers, etc. Every moves is a calculated move to build confidence in the markets.
Indeed it worked, side monies are now flowing into the market. PPIP seems to get the vote from Blackrock, soon banks would join the queue. There is a very good article in a popular magazine describing the ways banks can enjoy the ride by bidding for its own toxic assets, offload them onto the taxpayers and generate guaranteed returns.
It is little wonder, that Soros said that banks can earn their way out of the crisis, however other sectors would suffer.
Hence do not belittle the US banks. However let us see how CitiGroup and BoA would survive this call for capital. I suspect the bondholders would have to take a cut in the coming weeks, when they have to convert debt to equities, not unlike Chrysler and General Motors.
Possibly the BondHolders are given a path to the promised land with rising share prices.
Mid Term election next year 2 Nov 2010
--------------------------------------
As you can see mid term election is 19 months away. Can a rally last for 19 months ? unlikely especially in a primary bear trend. Probably the FED and the Obama administration would engineer a market drop (not crash) to reset the rally and move it towards end of this year. Noting that we are in 7 weeks of continous rise, which is astounding by any standards.
Now why is this not a new Bull rally ? Reason being deleveraging is still going on, the tools and incentives for the past rally is now no longer relevant. Commercial Real Estates, Credit Card debts, Corporate Bond defaults are looming on the horizon. With FED quantitative easing, it would spark a rally leading to inflation further down the road (like in 2 years of so).
As Bernanke is a student of Depression, I am a student of the Kondratieff Cycle. A Kondratiff cycle last on average 30 years at least. And we are at the beginning of such a cycle. The bear trend would ends only in 2030 or so. Within this 20 years, we would see numerous mega Bear Rallies. Now we are in one of these.
SPX at 666 was the bottom, engineered by the Obiwan administration with help of the GS.
GS
-------
GS is a the strongest company on wallstreet, it is a partnership, its management are well checked. They made the wisest bet against the Mortgage Backed Securities when MBS and other credit instruments were soaring in 2007. They emerged relatively unscathed. Most of its business is in Trading and not investment advisories (there was a good article in Market Watch describing GS businss strategies).
Now it is betting big on a Market Recovery, having partook in engineering the turnaround at 666, when everybody was looking at 620-640. It is now buying every dips for the past weeks (evidence provided by some traders on its trading position and volumes).
GS want to seize the day and distinguish itself from other firms. Blankfein has openly stated that it always market its investment to market, they do not fuddle their books.
The current earnings of the major firms are just scams, by virtue of the new Mark to Model account rules. Hence this one time adjustments would not last into the 2nd quarters. Banks have now think of a new earning model going forward against calls for greater bad loan provisions.
To be objective, the chart patterns of GS is indeed intriguing. It has unfinished business. Hence caution warranted.
Pig and the market
------------------
There are calls in Indonesia that Swine Flu is engineered by the US pharma to rig their share prices higher through selling Flu medicine. It is intriguing at least that the source of the Swine Flu is still unknown. Though some has pointed to a Pig farm run by the US in Mexico.
It is amazing to say the least when Bird, Human and Swine strains merge to have the current efficient Human to Human strains.
The Swine flu is more infectious than the Bird Flu, as its starts infecting once the person get it, instead of having an incubation period. It has a proven record in 1918 Spanish fever.
The consolation is that now US, Europe and the Northern hemispheres countries are moving into Summer, not conducive for flu spread. Also so far no deaths have occured in countries other than Mexico.
My guess is that the Swine Flu would fizzle out in next couple of weeks, as in more cases but no fatalities. And it would come back with a vengeance in winter, with a more efficient and fatal strain. The 1918 Spanish Fly happened in 2 stages, with millions death in the 2nd stage.
Nonetheless it is a damper on the stock market, with the risk averse taking monies off the table.
The Objective
-------------
What is the objective of the current rally. Though we do not know when the current Bear Market Rally would end, we know the objective for sure.
The objectives is to rake in as much monies as possible, to prepare for the winter.
It is like the Bear scouring for food, storing them ahead of the winter.
Hence more firms would be making rights issue, issing new shares. It started with GS selling shares on its earning annoucements.
Incidentally those Asia countries whose SWF has spent their bullets are now asking its domestics affiliated firms to raise cash in open markets.
Even private equities firms are asking for more monies from its investors.
China is planning a rave of IPOs.
This is indeed what we called the Private Public Partnership. When the Governments run out of monies, it goes to the people.
The Means
----------
The means is simple to rig the share prices on a global level. Singapore traders have complained that late market buying of large illiquid shares at market close have marked index up. This happended back in HK on 6-9 March, when biggies rigged the HSBC to 30 HKD/share, way below the trading average of 35 on those days. Subsequently it was lambasted by Donald Tseng.
Markets have been lethargic to say the least, trying to follow every step of US markets, especially SPX. The biggies have been rotating their play, today Tech, tomorrow Financials. Though Energy is a drag.
If you follow the Biggies and day trade, it has been most profitable. Buy on dips, sell on strength within a day. Hence GS has a good bunch of followers to help its cause.
The Ends
---------
How would it all ends short term ? Newtons Law of Apples rule. Everthing that goes up have to fall. MY GUESS is that the market would stage a capitulation towards 880 to 900 take out the stops at 875, and then begins its next leg down.
How far down would it goes ? It can go to 668 to complete its retest. Though traders expects somewhere 770-780. Jim Rogers said 740. It may be just at 805.
805 to 850 is the neckline of the decade long double top SPX. Hence it is heavily defended by the Bulls.
Hence my advice is to stay out of the Biggies way, and wait for it at higher levels to cut the pain of waiting.
The Bear View
-------------
Hence we have seen that even the Swine Flu is not denting the spirits on the current rally (despite new headlines of market drops, blah, blah, blah). Or rather say that the market is not respecting the Flu.
When the pandemic threat becomes real, like rallying numbers of New Yorkers get infected and death happens. Then the market would drop like a rock into the deep abyss of 500, with HSI to test its SARS bottom at 8333, and FSSTI to test 1200.
Then the uncompleted Wave 5 of GS would be running in earnest. Possibly we would have nationalisation of at least one of the banks: BoA or Citigroup.
I.e. 17 April (last OPEX date) we have seen the high at 875, and it is started its wave 1, now in a whipsawing wave 2 and then big time wave 3 down into the navels.
The Mainstream view
-------------------
The rally would continue into 1000 (Jim Rogers have spoken of 1000 on National TV), albeit with a shallow pullback, to 740 to 810.
May be the FOMC 29 April would be the trigger, or the 4 May Stress Test news release. From a Astrologist standpoint, the pull back date may just be 8-11 May. Noting that 15 May is option expiry.
The Bull view
-------------
the market keeps on iching upwards, with sudden spurt e.g. after FOMC, and after 4 May stress test release. and with a fading Swine Flu worries, market just keeps inching upwards to 1000 to meets the 200 days moving average.
A lot of traders are positioned for this: short from 875, if exceed 875 long position with view towards 1000.
The pick is yours......
Sunday, April 19, 2009
19 April so far nothing
it is Sunday, and nothing has happened.
Some more desserts for bears.
Bullish comments during the evolution of the Great Depression.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001pv.html
Some more desserts for bears.
Bullish comments during the evolution of the Great Depression.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001pv.html
Saturday, April 18, 2009
18 April Closer and closer, watching 19 April
SPX breached my target to 875. It is now holding above the neckline of the H&S bottom. While 805 to 850 is the neckline area of the double top of the SPX decade long.
Look at GS, do you see unfinished business? GS is a partnership company, and it is the strongest among the lot. Read a lot of commentary about GS staging a campaign in the market jiggin it up. I guess that explains why GS has unfinished business in its chart pattern.
On 17 April Gold and SPX reached par probably in the 860 to 866 area. FAZ was also at 8.50 to 8.66. SPX broke up from 666, and it meet its match Gold at 866. Now the market would decide which one to go up, and which one to go down.
An anaolgy would be Lucifer rose from hell to knock on Heaven's door.
I picked up quite a lot of unsettling news:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message771974/pg1
something about Illuminati and the coming 19 April disaster in New York
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/
Martin Armstrong date on 19 April
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=26632286&l=0&r=0&s=cyp&t=list
Heiko Seibel forecast
Are this believable, or is there a mass publicity campaign out there to entice the bear ?
Look at GS, do you see unfinished business? GS is a partnership company, and it is the strongest among the lot. Read a lot of commentary about GS staging a campaign in the market jiggin it up. I guess that explains why GS has unfinished business in its chart pattern.
On 17 April Gold and SPX reached par probably in the 860 to 866 area. FAZ was also at 8.50 to 8.66. SPX broke up from 666, and it meet its match Gold at 866. Now the market would decide which one to go up, and which one to go down.
An anaolgy would be Lucifer rose from hell to knock on Heaven's door.
I picked up quite a lot of unsettling news:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message771974/pg1
something about Illuminati and the coming 19 April disaster in New York
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/
Martin Armstrong date on 19 April
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=26632286&l=0&r=0&s=cyp&t=list
Heiko Seibel forecast
Are this believable, or is there a mass publicity campaign out there to entice the bear ?
Monday, April 13, 2009
13 April Apocalypse Watch
Yes, SPX did indeed went to my forcast of 857, I see this as a wave 5 move which may touch 867, 1.618 projection of wave 4.
Euro is hanging on a thread, ready to penetrate 1.3000. Singapore government is releasing its monetary decision tomorrow (Tuesday 14 April), widely expected to shift its balanced currency median upwards, i.e. weaker SGD, stronger USD. We may see a dash of USDSGD towards 1.5500, eventually 1.6000.
Singapore is in deep trouble. Shell just announced stopping its refineries in Singapore, i.e. forecasting weak oil demand. Its ports are operating at 50% capacity. Manufacturers are starting to retrench (retrenchment was artificially set back by government incentive Jobs Credit program, which cannot prevent the inevitable).
Thailand government is in mockery, after it has to helilift Asian leaders out of
the Asean summit when demonstrators storm the venue.
The only hope is the rumoured 2nd China stimulus package. Which should jig the Hong Kong Stock Index and Shanghai composite higher.
Some western buyers have come in to Asia market morning to make a gap up. Literally make it.
Now we just wait for the stampede out of the door. It is said that the Stock Market foretells the Economy by 6 to 9 months.
But we are on a bull trend from 1929 till 2007, a period of almost 80 years. How would the current recession/depression finish in just 2 years ?
The market consensus is that we are in deep recession, but not depression.
I am on Apocalypse watch,
Apocalypse watch:
Earhquakes has happened, meteors coming.
Meteors showers:
Lyrids Meteor Shower
Start Date: April 16
Peak Date: April 22
End Date: April 25
The Funds jigging up the stocks would have to dash for the exit when the unexpected happens. As I would reveal to my subscribers the black swan event and how to position for it.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1239488114997&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Euro is hanging on a thread, ready to penetrate 1.3000. Singapore government is releasing its monetary decision tomorrow (Tuesday 14 April), widely expected to shift its balanced currency median upwards, i.e. weaker SGD, stronger USD. We may see a dash of USDSGD towards 1.5500, eventually 1.6000.
Singapore is in deep trouble. Shell just announced stopping its refineries in Singapore, i.e. forecasting weak oil demand. Its ports are operating at 50% capacity. Manufacturers are starting to retrench (retrenchment was artificially set back by government incentive Jobs Credit program, which cannot prevent the inevitable).
Thailand government is in mockery, after it has to helilift Asian leaders out of
the Asean summit when demonstrators storm the venue.
The only hope is the rumoured 2nd China stimulus package. Which should jig the Hong Kong Stock Index and Shanghai composite higher.
Some western buyers have come in to Asia market morning to make a gap up. Literally make it.
Now we just wait for the stampede out of the door. It is said that the Stock Market foretells the Economy by 6 to 9 months.
But we are on a bull trend from 1929 till 2007, a period of almost 80 years. How would the current recession/depression finish in just 2 years ?
The market consensus is that we are in deep recession, but not depression.
I am on Apocalypse watch,
Apocalypse watch:
Earhquakes has happened, meteors coming.
Meteors showers:
Lyrids Meteor Shower
Start Date: April 16
Peak Date: April 22
End Date: April 25
The Funds jigging up the stocks would have to dash for the exit when the unexpected happens. As I would reveal to my subscribers the black swan event and how to position for it.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1239488114997&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Sunday, April 5, 2009
5 April Fishy
If it smells like a Fish, probably it is a FISH.
that is what is happening to this rally, last few minutes on Friday closing, Dow dashes for the 8000 mark, closing at 8017, the low on Friday was 7900. A concerted effort to gain 117 points from 11 am to 4 pm close.
SPX also made last minute dash towards 842.
The Funds are driving up the market to attract retail funds from 401K, etc. Nothing surprising that Templeton, Fidelity has called bottom few weeks ago. While Bernanke call of green shoots.
The NFP number probably is jigged to fall in line with expectation, and to be revised upwards 2 months down the road, when everybody forgets.
All these are necessary since the President is now overseas. Things have to look good back home.
Most trades looking for higher high, SPX to 850, 857 before another a short dip ahead. Bullish sentiments are expected to remain for coming 2 weeks, before everybody rush for exit.
On Friday, USDJPY held 100, Gold dipped, EURUSD also squeezing higher. However UKX have dipped already on daily basis. USDJPY looks like a dagger move.
Or is the market telling something ? most instruments are now aligned on the same starting line, for a parabolic rally, or a plunge ?
IF there is a FISH out there, you can steam it, roast it.
If most traders are looking for another leg of the rally next week, should we be expecting the unexpected ?
that is what is happening to this rally, last few minutes on Friday closing, Dow dashes for the 8000 mark, closing at 8017, the low on Friday was 7900. A concerted effort to gain 117 points from 11 am to 4 pm close.
SPX also made last minute dash towards 842.
The Funds are driving up the market to attract retail funds from 401K, etc. Nothing surprising that Templeton, Fidelity has called bottom few weeks ago. While Bernanke call of green shoots.
The NFP number probably is jigged to fall in line with expectation, and to be revised upwards 2 months down the road, when everybody forgets.
All these are necessary since the President is now overseas. Things have to look good back home.
Most trades looking for higher high, SPX to 850, 857 before another a short dip ahead. Bullish sentiments are expected to remain for coming 2 weeks, before everybody rush for exit.
On Friday, USDJPY held 100, Gold dipped, EURUSD also squeezing higher. However UKX have dipped already on daily basis. USDJPY looks like a dagger move.
Or is the market telling something ? most instruments are now aligned on the same starting line, for a parabolic rally, or a plunge ?
IF there is a FISH out there, you can steam it, roast it.
If most traders are looking for another leg of the rally next week, should we be expecting the unexpected ?
Saturday, April 4, 2009
4 April Revelation 13:17
And that no man might buy or sell, save him that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.
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