well, Gold has hit a high of 1005. Is it the short term top ? Interesting last week, Bernanke spoke and painted a gloomy picture, however expecting inflation to stay low short term, and inflation target of 1.5 to 2% long term.
Seemingly Gold believes in him and beat a retreat. Would inflation be contained in the future ?
Also Hillary ask the China to continue buying treasury, this would give support to USD, and stem any panic dumping of Treasuries.
Obamam is going announce a plan on cutting down fiscal deficits by yr 2012. That bodes well for USD. However the recent move of Gold is anti-Euro, aligned with USD strength.
If Gold rallies beyond 1030, then it would foretell a world when the FED and US is helpless.
Suspect that whenever Gold reaches 1000, the FED would come out to dump its Gold, or enter into some form of swap to sell its Gold.
As an investor, never never sell Gold nonetheless. Buying on dips is adviced.
Short term bottom may be found at 960, then 930.
From the recent chart moves, the support seem to be at 975, then 983. The last high was 1005, followed by 998. We may see another attempt to mount an attack towards 1000. The longer the interval between the attack, the selling pressure would mount.
I believe we have not seen the end of the current raly, however some form of pullback is in the cards.
Hence some more downside for Stocks is happening this week, before a climax. Then it would be a golden buying opportunity.
My take is that Euro would reach 1.2400, SPX to reach 680-700, and Gold to topout around 1050 within next 2 weeks.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
12 Feb Buying Time
yes, buying time is what Geithner is doing, he is not in a hurry to buy bank assets. As there is no demand out there, any asset sales would depress the market value further. He is keeping the details, so as to put the market on a leash. He would reveal bits by bits, literally buying time.
The are tools that Bernanke and Geithner can deploy, but they are deliberately taking their time.
Overall, when the time is right, they would give the final push to jerk the economy out of the doldrums. The next highlight would be the April G20 meeting. Till then expect the market to stuck in range, perhaps with a downward bias. Noting that the GM/Chrysler bill is up on the table for review in March.
Meanwhile, China market is quietly climbing without much fanfare. Hence expect the more resilient economies to pull out slowly, while Doom sayers keeping the hot air on US markets.
US companies, or for that matter financial institutions with substantial China/Asia exposure would thrive better than others.
Natural resources companies are also in the mode of merger and acquisitions in anticipation of the next demand cycle. E.g. Chinalco and Rio Tinto.
For investors, you can buy when you find the market suddenly making a dive the next morning. Any test of the low is a buying opportunity. But do not buy after a rally, as rallies would not be sustainable when the time is not ripe.
The are tools that Bernanke and Geithner can deploy, but they are deliberately taking their time.
Overall, when the time is right, they would give the final push to jerk the economy out of the doldrums. The next highlight would be the April G20 meeting. Till then expect the market to stuck in range, perhaps with a downward bias. Noting that the GM/Chrysler bill is up on the table for review in March.
Meanwhile, China market is quietly climbing without much fanfare. Hence expect the more resilient economies to pull out slowly, while Doom sayers keeping the hot air on US markets.
US companies, or for that matter financial institutions with substantial China/Asia exposure would thrive better than others.
Natural resources companies are also in the mode of merger and acquisitions in anticipation of the next demand cycle. E.g. Chinalco and Rio Tinto.
For investors, you can buy when you find the market suddenly making a dive the next morning. Any test of the low is a buying opportunity. But do not buy after a rally, as rallies would not be sustainable when the time is not ripe.
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