31 Dec Madame Butterfly and the disappearance of Jesus

Do you see a butterfly inside ?

Update 2:30 am ET
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I have changed the title to "Madame Butterfly", to give you a clue to what I am going to post.
Just to fill spaces.
weeks ago, when Euro was at 1.4350, I was holding some Euro real monies. I asked Divine. and Divine told me "to hold". I did not sold my Euros. And when I asked Divine, I have to qualify it with a timeframe. Hence that begs the question: till what timeframe, should I hold my Euros ?

Update 5:11 am ET
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I had an earlier post on the resurrection of Jesus, and the rebound of Euro. Now after 3 days, Jesus resurrected, and you know what happened ? HE disappeared, cannot be found !!.
and after 3 trading days,on the 4th day, all the EURO Bull disappeared as well.

Hence morale of the story is, if you do not subscribe, make sure you read your Bible well and pray hard.

Update 6:18 am ET
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the Mdm Butterfly picture was taken at 10 pm ET 30 Dec (given to my subscribers), now 8 hours later. we are still below 1.4750 (at 1.4711 now). We await the home sales data at 10 am ET.

Update 10:18 am ET
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not too cold, not too warm housing, still Euro drops.
Madame Butterfly has given us the top at 1.4750.
What a nice way to end 2007. Imagine my subscribers get this information 12 hours before it happens.

Update 11:20 am ET
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Now, where is the bottom ? My project bottom at 1.4640 has been violated. Gold is till holding up well. next we are watching 1.4584.

Right again, DollarPro
Please feel free to check out the links here, there are some information on Gold trading, and also FREE education and FREE trading platform. You would be surprised that you may find some FREE profits as well.

29 Dec Year End Call EURUSD competition

Hi, you traders out there, feel free to post you year end call for EURO on my comments page. The one who get closest to the year end closing EURUSD and within 10 pips of it would get a FREE "200 USD" from me via paypal into your credit card.


For the year end rate, I would use the last registered Rate on Bloomberg terminal for the year. I would publish the rate on this blog on 2 Jan and annouce the winner if any.

As for others, do use this remaining 3 days to subscribe to the newsletter at 2007. 300 USD is all it takes for 3 months subscription. Otherwise, it would be 450 USD.

The advantage my newsletter gives is that it give you the target (at least you can get as close to the peak), and also to warn of any turning point.

I was able to call 1.4640 for the rally on Thursday, and close to it 1.4715 for Friday. AND of course last week low close to it at 1.4328.

With my newsletter, you are cross check with your expectation, and contain the risk that you are trading counter trend.

Those who like my charts, can email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

Also pls check on the links here, as there are some FREE education, FREE trading platform and hopefully leading to some FREE monies.

28 Dec FAITH in the second coming of EURO / Bhutto ?

this chart which I posted to my subscribers on 26 Dec (wed) would have gotten them easily 1.4640 - 1.4412 = 228 pips, or 2280 USD.

However to be frank, I never expected it to be so fast. Bhutto was the catalyst.

Another wild ride today, Feel free to check out the links here, there are some free education and trading platform. you would find them useful in your learning in forex and Gold trading. Hopefully, leading to some FREE profit.

The death of Bhutto has great remification to middleast peace. Bush was banging on Bhutto's return to Pakistan so that a new democratic government can rein in the radical islamic forces, and also to enforce Pakistan's border to prevent its mountain ranges becoming hideout for the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Now this plan has come to wreck, and the radical Islamic forces scored a temporary victory. If Pakistan falls into radical Islamic control, it would be the first Mulsim country with nuclear forces hostile to America.

Anyway, the Bhutto effect has rammed through the neckline at 1.4520. And day before I have urged caution on USD strength. However, the rise is faster than I think.

the question remains how far Euro would rise ? 1.4700 seems reachable, would it turn at 1.4800, or ram through 1.5000 once and for all ?

the answer would be in my subscription. Email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "Subscribe". If you do it by 31 Dec, you pay only 300 USD for 3 months, otherwise it would be 450 USD for 3 months in 2008.

Buffet has scorned the financials, and refused to inject monies. Was the Sovereign Wealth Funds got a good deal at the right time or Buffet was right. Clue: Buffet's monies is his, not that of oil or ordinary folks.

Bhutto effect may have greater impact on Equities. SPX at 1477. Can we rely on year end windows dressing to push SPX beyond 1500 (a critical milestone to intepret the rise as a new rally) or a greater decline has begun.

A plunging dollar, rising headline inflation (not in US though ironically, thanx to BLS and FED), high oil, flying GOLD. Now who on earth would want to buy up US and save the world ?

Update 2:15 am ET
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Would EURO challenge the downtrend channel at 1.4640 and fails and return to deep abyss heading towards 1.4076 as planned ?

Well, it is Xmas and the cliche goes like this.

If JESUS did not resurrect after 3 days, it makes HIS sacrifice meaningless.

If EURO does not rise again for greater glory after these 3 days, (Euro rise started on 26 Dec,
24 Dec it was still stalling below 1.4420), it make ITS drop from 1.4972 meaningless. You may be witnessing the second coming of EURO.

As many as non-believers in Christ out there, there are as many non-believers in the second coming of EURO.

Today Bloomberg ran a newstory titled "Dollar Strategiest Predicts end of Bear Market in 2008". One strategist say "Asia and the Middle East know they need to lend somesupport to the dollar, or they're all going to lose out".

Exactly, the dumb monies (Soverign Wealth Funds) are supporting Dollar. That is why they are DUMB. Buffet is much smarter. While the SWF buys dollars, the other more clandestine China forex investment company, diversify out of it.

By the way, with due respect, the USD Bear market indeed may end in 2008, on the 31 Dec 2008. Haahahahaha. Read between the lines, my readers.

Update 4 am ET
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Read a headline "Bhutto killing spooks stock".
Well, you know how Wallstreet works, may be today they cook up a story "Second coming of Bhutto, conspiracy theory of Bhutto death", then we get a rally in equities, and some USD strength.

Update 7:20 am ET
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see my newly attached chart (given to my subscribers 6 hours ago). the 61.8 is at 1.4717,
it touched 1.4712 at 6:15 am ET.

5 more pips and a lot of people logging in positions.

Update 10:45 am ET
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German CPI came in weaker than expected. MoM 0.7% vs expected 0.8%. YoY 3.1% vs expected 3.2%, prior 3.3%.
German CPI is on a downtrend, alongside a weakening economy.
Trichet no longer has reason to breath fire.
US is definitely on a accelerated cutting, with all weak data.
The wildcard is BoE.

With the China QDII scheme extending to UK (first before US/Europe), we may see some capital flows into UK.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/18/content_7271593.htm

Perhaps the Chinese are eyeing the Buckingham Palace.

27 Dec Wake up to reality: Bhutto killed

GBP bounced off it multi-month support line at 1.9697 in a broadening formation.
Just tested 1.9900. 2 possible ??


those who went on holidays, and came back would be surprised to see Euro at 1.4500 instead of 1.4300, just one week ago. (by the way, my subscribers were told of the low at 1.4310-30 in advance and had long and taken handsome profit on the break of 1.4500)

Probably mobilising monies to defend the neckline at 1.4520. Last high was close enough at 1.4516.

the Queen's wealth continue to be in peril. Probably, the French and come and buy up Buckingham Palace at its fire sale. Soon the entire UK is for sale.

All are transient, would update as time goes along. UK home prices coming up, then US consumer confidence big ticket item.

Read yesterday that US consumer can continue spending into recession. Yes, no doubt about that, that is what Credit Cards are for.

Update 8:15 am ET
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Eur just touched 1.4520, as I have forecasted on my Dec 20 blog.
now the million dollars question is:
would Euro pull back or just move higher ?

(it is really million dollars, as some of my subscribers are trading real monies in 1 mio Euros)

Update 8:40 am ET
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Pakistan Bhutto killed. The only muslim nation with nuclear weapon would be thrown into turmoil. It is a minus fo world stability. Get ready for the US Equities to react.

EURUSD 1.4520 penetrated. now at 1.4522.

Testing time, would USD react as a safety currency ? Gold jumped to 828.
May be Gold see this coming ??? (errie.....chill.)

Update 9:05 ET
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Seems like EURO is perceived as a flight currency. Gold and Euro make a projectile rise.
The speed is totally unexpected. It took out the shorts at neckline 1.4520 and rose.

26 DEC Boxing Day, guess who get boxed.

European and British banks are closed today. Interestingly EURGBP hit a new high on 25 DEC. i.e. our Queens wealth has gone down.
Any way, DXY looking like threading on thin ice. The thick Ichimoku cloud is providing some support meanwhile.
Also load of bad news came out. US Credit card defaults soaring, US coroprate cutting capital expenditure.
Roubini is on national TV again toking about recession. He looks haggard, he looks like he himself is in recession.

TRADER ALERT

--------------------
A lot of broker software is not showing the prices on 25 Dec. Some pairs made significant highs on that day. Do watch out and interpret the data correctly.


Update 8:11 am ET
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EURUSD made a mad dash for 1.4481.

EURGBP hit high of 0.7299 (still below 25 Dec high of 0.73175, not recorded on a lot of broker software)

Time for a rebound of GBP against USD ?
OR a pause in the rise of EUR against USD ?
USDJPY falls to test 114.

Nothing can be more bearish on the GBP than this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/26/cnster126.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

Whoever coming out to save the GBP would probably be knighted by the Queen. OR
some Dark Knight there poised to bankrupt the BoE once more ?

Update 9:53 am ET

--------------------

Gold has hit the triangle resistance at 820, 821, would it close today above the 821 ? significant event as a breakout may have happened.

Late though, considering every countries now reporting historical high inflation (except our dear US BLS and FED).

Usually when Gold moves, it is a omen of more things to come in Equities, etc.

Update 10:00 am ET

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home prices fell 6.1% in October, holiday retail season may be the slowest since 2002. AND more importantly Richmond Fed Index (Dec) at -4 vs expected 1 and 0 in Nov.

Obviouisly USD at historical low did not help the manufacturing, more weakenss for USD to come ?

one fellow from Davidowitz said subprime is just a appetizer, the main course is the credit card debt, corporate debts, etc.

Wow !!!! dun know appetizer can be so filling. Me ain't waiting for the main course.

Update 10:35 am ET

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it was quick, EURUSD now testing the neckline of its H&S pattern at 1.4500-1.4520. If it keeps above 1.4500, this is quite a feat. If EURO breaks the neckline, it would be quite a scramble for the short sellers when market reopen full steam next week. Hopefully the short sellers got somebody standby to defend it.

the King ponders.... Should I call for a battle to break the neckline ?? with Gandalf, Elf, Gondor knights in tow ? (give your comments below)

GBP still underwater. though made a good leap from 1.9696 to 1.9820 today. Come to think of it, GBP saving interest rate is significantly above EUR and even more against USD. It is still a good store of monies short term, and by the way, China approved its citizen to invest in UK directly besides HK under the so called QDII scheme.

See what China monies did to HSI, you can imagine what China monies would do to FTSE, which has a large component of resources companies.

You want to know what is my call for EUR, JPY, GBP in 2008, you got to subscribe, send email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with header "subscribe".

24 Dec Silent Night

Silent night, holy night.

Yes, it is all silent on the forex front especially for EURUSD. The Silence of the lamb to be massacred by Hannibal ?

Asia and Europe Equities all did well today. The long last Xmas rally has come.

I am sure next year, it would not be short of fun and thrilling rides.

If you want to know what I talk about the charts above, you got to subscribe.

Those who subscribe before 31 Dec would get the 2007 rate of 100 USD/month for 3 months subscriptions. Those who subscribe in 2008, would have to pay 150 USD/month.

I wish all the DollarPro Fellowhships a Merry Christmas.

23 Dec

looking at the charts, we have a breakout in Platinum last week. Sugar looks like it is on its way as well. Next Quarter, we are going to see rallies of all sorts: Equities, Commodities, etc, except Bonds, Credit Instruments.

22 DEC Beam me up Scottie !!!!

now, how many Xmas do we have in a year ? only one.

do you think the Big Fish would miss this opportunity to move the market ? especially when the year end 31 Dec is also near ?

Now where would they be swimming in ?

This week the Japan government was debating about arming their defence forces in case UFO or Godzilla is sighted.

And the Japan Defence Minister says "if Godzilla attacked, I'd send out the army".

Now that is an invitation to the UTO (Unidentified Trading Objects)

If you do not want to miss this opportunity once in a year, subscribe now.

The offer:
100 USD for 3 months (now till 31 Dec plus Jan/Feb/March)

Otherwise, when you subscribe in Jan, it would be 150$/month.

Send an email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with a message header "Subscribe".

21 DEC the quadruple witching day

indeed I got 5 new subscribers overnight, since I made the call to long at 1.4320.

Now based on my Elliot wave count, the current rally should terminate at 1.4450, at least for the first minor upwave.

Whatever am bullish on Gold. Those who want to know how to invest in GOLD, email me.

I would be increasing my fee to 150 USD in the coming year, those who signed up this year would still retain the same fee for 3 months if they sign up for 3 months.

20 DEC Euro rebound

Daily chart: EURUSD oversold, however downtrend confirmed.

this morning, I call for a long EURO when it was at 1.4320, and called that it reach 1.4350 when 8:30 AM ET newsbreak, indeed it went to 1.4358 and then at 1.4350 at 8:30 AM.

Now Euro at 1.4367 and falling back into 1.4349.

Expect it to challenge 1.4400, then 1.4420, then towards 1.4500- 1.4520 and ....????

If you want to know more, subscribe. Look at the subsciption instruction blog. It is only 100 USD for 30 days. (you can easily lose 500 USD if you are on the wrong side).

In my commentaries, I also call on USDJPY, USDCAD, Gold, etc.

Update 9:05 am ET
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Eurusd forming a reverse bottom. neckline at 1.4367.
once broken it should head for 1.4420 (the major resistance).
Should be there by 10:30 am ET.

Update 9:30 am ET
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the Euro retrace to its FIB support 1.4331. the high was 1.4367.
everything happening as planned.

Update 10:00 AM ET
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the equities rising, should support a Euro rebound.now Euro at 1.4345.MACD wise, the high at 1.4367 is confirmed. Gunnig for 1.4400 next.

Market should be, courtesy sake, pause and listen to Bush year end wrap up.
AND when he finishes give him a STANDING OVATION.
Would he finish by 10:30 AM ET ? my target time ?

Update 10:28 AM ET
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EURUSD completed its A-B-C retracement from 1.4367 high, and now in the upleg wave 3.
C was 1.4312, 2 pips above the low of today 1.4310. Really tricky.

Update 11:20 AM ET
----------------------
Am going off for lunch now, then take an afternoon off. Keep my stops for my long position.
Still targeting 1.4520
Guess market is waiting for the Europe hours to be over, then move.
Would not be writing for a while. Good luck to us all.

19 Dec another boring day

It is a day for the range trader. buy low sell high. Euro stuck between 1.4360 and 1.4420, a 60 pips range.

Trichet spoke today at the EU parliament, he stopped short of using the word "Vigilence". He said "alert". He showed himself to be a true inflation fighter. And ECB distinctly separates monetary policy from the credit crisis. Hence, looking forward ECB is likely to maintain rate at 4% if not hike.

While USD being in a election year, would likely keep cutting rate. If the economy data worsens, the cut would morph into 50bp. 3.5% is the bottom now. However 2.5 to 3% is more likely.

Hence interest rate parity is definitely to the advantage of Euro and GBP. While Yen is likely to strengthen towards 110.

Today, the bias is for Euro to test the bottom on the range, now at 1.4381.

For those who like more detailed analysis, send a email to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with header "Subscribe". It is only 100 USD for 30 days of commentaries.

If you want to know the outlook for next year, remember to subscribe.

18 Dec update.... waiting

DXY showing a Doji candle on daily chart.



EURUSD H&S neckline at 1.4529.

As expected EURUSD hugging 1.4400 going nowhere. Euro testing 1.4370.

Awfully boring...........

Would EURUSD retest the neck line 1.4529 and negate the entire H&S scenario ?

Look at implied interest rate, market is seeing 4.00% for Jan 30 FOMC. While Eurodollar Futures say 4.00% by ECB for the rest of 2008. And DAX is expected to perform better next year.

Another 516b USD for government agencies operations incuding those in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. . While the European is stingy on their Afghanistan deployment. What a contrast.

17 Dec "1408" the movie

Update 10:00 am ET
----------------------
SPX hugging 1457-1459 ahead of US auction results. Best GUESS is that it is going to be a good one, fuelling a small rally, i.e. more monies for risk taking. However should not go far.
EUR may break 1.4400 and settle into 1.4450, Monday's Asia high. Awaiting Tuesday housing data.

Update 9:45 am ET
--------------------
1.4400 holding well, seems like the shorting point for the US bulls. the USD move has been working like clockwork. the support, resistance are well executed. The pple behind the moves are definitely very confident, and determined.SPX now at 1458, also not helping Euro.


EURUSD: possible bottom at 1.4328, now heading for rebound after the ISM today, housing tomorrow. Holding below 1.4400 Monday. With US treasury auction result release at 1 pm ET.


SPX: 1408 projected low by 21 Dec 2007. (remember the movie: 1048 by John Cusack)

Asia market drops a lot on Monday, same for Europe. Let us see
how the US market responds to the Goldman Sach, Morgan Stanley.

If you have seen the movie "1408" based on Stephen King novel (http://www.1408-themovie.com/), you would probably know the curse shrouding the market.

John Cusack entrapped in the room 1408 has only 2 choices:
(a) relive the horror again and again
(b) to commit suicide in whatever fashion

Hence my call is for the SPX to continue its downtrend, hitting 1408 this week, 21 Dec. Then the market would be called upon to decide:

(a) relive the zig zag again and again, with a upward break
(b) to dive once and for all

Now what would the market choose, and less importantly what would FED do on the fateful day 12.21.2007. What if the FED does nothing ?

As for EURUSD, I urge caution, EURUSD may have bottomed at 1.4328 short term.

For what is next you would have to read my subscription.

More for my subscribers. Read my blog archive on subscription instruction.

16 Dec to start the week

According to a bloomberg survey, the consensus is for a Euro rebound in 2008 to 1.40 to 1.45. There are some commentary on Sudeutsche Zeitung talking about USD rebound to 1.3000.

Also there is a US Treasury bill auction coming up on Monday 17 Dec 2007. That has contributed to the demand of USD over last week.

There are housing related data, inflation data in coming week, before Xmas. Also 21 Dec is the option expiration date as well. Hence the bankers and traders would be kept busy right up to the last minute of Xmas. Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs annoucing results coming week as well.

We may see a rapid equities market contraction, flight to safetly movements.

For some people it is going to be a Black Xmas.

More for the subscribers........ read my earlier post on subscription details.

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