27 Dec Euro moves

FOREX COMMENTARY

If there is no concerted effort to penetrate 1.4700 in coming week till 7 Jan, we may see Euro dropping back to test 1.3000, or even 1.2000.

Though I may not rule out an immediate drop to 1.3500 then rise again to test 1.4700, with target 1.5000-1.5200 and then drop back to 1.3000, this moves have to be executed in short timeframe and thin liquidity. (Probability low).

Hence a likely scenario would be a slow deterioration of Euro, dripple down to 1.3800, then 1.3500, and then sharp moves below 1.3000 again, gunning for 1.2000 this time. This would be accompanied by a Gold now at resistance 880 (slopping downtrend channel) into 800.

If Gold can hold 800, then Euro test may just stop at 1.3300-1.3500.

If Trichet signals more cut coming for Euro to 1%, then differential between all currencies would diminish making holding USD preferable in the short term.

Long term view is still for USD to drop, bços of Democrats inclination to weaken currency to jerk export, which eventually leads to the next wave of commodity bull markets.

Hence Oil and Commodities still have quite sometime to consolidate before the next wave begins.

EQUITIES COMMENTARY

Checked the monthly SPX, the averages just crossed down, i.e. we are in for a long long Bear Market, with further plunge. The deeper the plunge, the shorter the recovery period.

With all the intervention, bailouts of Autos, FED buying of mortagage securities, eventually corporate debts (to alleviate the Commercial Real Estate market), further sharp plunge is more remote by the days. Looking at the CDS market, CDS prices on Equities have been dropping. TED spread narrowing.

The Bulls and Bears looking for the retest of the bottom, for the Bull to go into short term long, and Bears to take short term profits. Hence a significant retest would not be forthcoming. Plunge and Rally would be short lived. Essentially the market is in a trading range of 800 to 950 for next few months.

Critical time would be end March towards April, when the Obama Euphoria wears off and the world turn attention to the next G20 meeting in April.

It is better to hold cash in the right currencies.

SURPRISE

The bond market bubble may just burst and monies flow suddenly into Commodities, metals, Crude.
China is embarking on big Infra building, as well as its next fleet of Aircraft Carriers, the demand for metals would be immense. When China start importing metals,
(it is already importing agriculture,and setting price bottoms to protect its domestic production).

Protectionism would rear its ugly head in 2009, where exports of commodities would be disrupted. Hence we may see the next Commodity Rally, which leads to the next Hyper Inflationary Cycle (justified by the monies supplies).

Economies may just toggle into Hyperinflation at the flick of a switch. Speculators would capitalise on the reduced capacities to mount the next crude rally. Probably they would allow another 3 months for the deflation cycle to play out.

If I am a large Speculator, I would not want to fight the FED with its promise of using all possible tools to support the economy. I would just turn around and ride the wave of liquidity promised by Bernanke and other central banks.

We would see Slow or Zero growth and Inflation by end of 2009.

25 Dec Positive News

On Tuesday, SEC has approved a UK company LCH.Clearnet Ltd to operate as a central clearing house for CDS. This is a milestone in containing the CDS monster, and provide transparency. This was long proposed by George Soros, he mentioned it during this year Davos economic meeting.

Hence the rougue Hedge Funds which terminated all the Investment Banks, bankrupted or near bankrupted Lehman Brothers, AIG and Citigroup now have lesser weapons on hand.

We have yet to see GM fall, as well as the Commercial Real Estate market.

With the G20 meeting in London in early April, GM viability dateline on 31 March. Obama inauguration on 20 January, expect market volatility to persist which is good for swing trading.

Over the Xmas period, some positive news have come out,
(A) Japan announcing a near 1 Trillion USD fiscal package,
(B) Biden said that the package is near done, and ready to be given to the Congress.
(C) GMAC now a bankholding company, eligible for FED loans
(D) SEC CDS clearing house in operation
(E) A better than expected US consumer spending

We are starting to see some lights, let see if there would be a January rally afterall.

You are most welcome to exchange views and discuss.

24 Dec Christmas

Forex trend to watch would be the hitting parity of GBP and Euro. However London would likely emerge from the recession earlier than Europe.

Euro:GBP = 1.1 to 1.2 would be a good buy. 8 Jan BOE rate decision, 15 Jan ECB rate decision.

Now Euro at 1.4000, after retreating from 1.4719. PERHAPS Euro has another leg up to perhaps 1.4900-1.5000 before retreating into 1.3000 for a while.

Watch next week and the 1st week of Jan for the move.

Treasuries USB/UST now showing topping action. With VIX at low, does this foretell a rally in Equities ? SPX now at 860, trying to poke the sacred 850.

Interesting times indeed, welcome comments and discussion.

21 Dec Forecast

Was looking at the TV and caught a glimpse of Bernanke marching into his FOMC meeting. With benefit of hindsight, it was pretty smart for the Bush to have appointed Bernanke to the post, with his background on deflation fighting, and being a outstanding student of Depression.

We have to give due credits to the learned academics that they would learn from Japan and steer US away from Japan's 10 years of moribund.

Then thinking ahead with Volcker appointed as the advisor to Obama, one may forsee that a high inflationary world awaits us, once this crisis fades. We would see a high inflationary world knocking on our doors sometime in 2010, 2011.

Long Term
My forecast for the economy would be:
Economy bottoms mid 2009, though unemployment rate may continue climbing. Stock market would confirm a bottom sometime in 1st Quarter 2009, with a good rally.

The equities would continue to slow rally into 2010 (the speed is slow at first). While economy stays at below trend growth, while inflation creeps quickly up.

Sometime in 2011 we would see the peak of the rally, with the end of the next bubble, the world would descend into the next Great Depression in 2012. (probably to conincide with the brewing of the WWIII, with a nuclear facet).

We should reach SPX at sub-500 level in 2012.

As for currency, USD may stage a recovery in 2009, while inflation rises. Commodities rise with USD, a double dose of poison.

2007 weak USD strong commodities
2008 strong USD weak commodities
2009 strong USD strong commodities

Short Term

For the coming Xmas, the politicians and Hank decide to play the tricks one more time with 350billion remaining of TARP funds.
they may stage the next market plunge to nudge the Congress into approviing the remaining 350billion.

Scanning through the markets commentary, I see a lot of Bullish views on crude, like Oil is oversold, hedge Gold position using Oil, Contango, etc.

Let us talk about Crude.
A lot of the Crude meteoric rise to 147 can be attributed to hedge funds rigging, and the China mopping up of crude during the SzeChuan Earthquake. The China has to fly 24 hours sorties of helicopters, airlift to deploy troops.

A oil trader was investigated for rigging. Short of any natural disasters, the demand for oil is not expected to rise. Most business in Asia is looking for a slump of activities after the January Chinese New Year. (Obama inauguration is on 20 Jan). Demand for oil is not expected to rise in the 1st Qtr.

Hence oil would probably fall further, into 30dollars. Hence all the bull talk on oil is just a setup for a bull trap.

Equally we would not expect any significant rally in Equities, or Commodities. The markets would hit another bottom somewhere in March 2009. Expect SPX to touch 600 then. HangSeng Index probably into 10000, now at 15000.

As for next week,
with 350 billion of TARP fund at stake, Hank may stage another market plunge to scare the Congress into approving. Obama is now on holiday in Hawaii, (as Nostradamus said, the prince from the seas). SPX may break or touch 800 one more time to confirm Nov bottom.

20 Dec Trade War looming

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/ap/20081220/tap-us-china-trade-bb10fb8.html

Only weeks after US and China met, US is starting its first complaint to WTO over China uses of Export Subsidies. This does not bode well for the USD. Wait for USD to go lower, let say, 1.3500, load up for the next explosive leg of Euro rise.

9 Dec closer to Full Moon

3 more days to full moon. including today trading.
SPX on its way to test 929, 932.

Meanwhile the Chinese is holding a economic conference on whether to devalue the RMB to save the exports. It has immense implication.
If they decide to devalue RMB, expect USD to surge to 90 on DXY. and a market plunge alongside.

3 Dec Paulson going to China

This would dictate the USD move in coming months.
Think China would be duped into devaluing their currencies, leading to a outflow of monies, the communist regime is under challenge.

28 Nov Post Thanxgiving

Currencies hardly move post Thanxgiving. in tight ranges. the longer it is in range, the more explosive the burst.

The million dollar question is if it is up or down.

27 Nov Thanxgiving

Let see what the market throw at us on this Thanxgiving Day.

Meredith Whitney was out on national TV before US market open, throwing cold water on Banks, Citi, etc.

Meredith is a well listened to figure, especially since she called for Dividends Cut at Citi when its share price was still at 50.

However, has the market made a significant low ? The traders are still piling into short selling if not waiting to short sell.

Some how the low would be retested at some point in the future.

See if Euro can break 1.3300 convincingly pre and post Thanxgiving. Now at 1.2919.

22 Nov Citi never sleeps

Citibank may just goes to Zero next week. A bank with 2 Trillion Dollar assets, with more capital than current debt level warrants. Why ?

It is all political and racism.

Viky himself is not a white, and there are power struggle within the organisation to replace him. There are lots to aspire to CEO position of a company with global reach and 2 Trillion Dollars in assets. One would not exclude the possibility of a Citi insider collabrating with Hedge Funds to drive Viky to his knees.

Citi is one of the most global company in US. It has more branches in Asia than any other US banks, namly BoA, JP Morgan. Its executives in Asia are the brightest brains in the society. And its business model covers all aspects of consumer banking needs, car financing, home loans, wealth management, etc. 2 days ago, I was just contacted by Citi sales to renew my car insurance, and was handed a pocket book size Citi calender for 2009 on a busy street. Only HSBC has as a global reach as Citi, and HSBC is only half as agressive.

A bankrupt Citibank has immense ramificaitons on the local banking scene in those Asia countries, it may precipitate bank run on other banks.

Citi has some prominant backers, namly the Prince Allweep, Dubai investment and the Singpure government investment arm Temaseek.

Citi, has long been the target of hedge funds in their hunt. As all of us know by now, Hedge Funds purchase CDS on the target, drive the prices higher, to precipitate a fall in stocks, then higher CDS, cascading into an avalanche.

Talks on caging this CDS monster has not been forthcoming. Viky has been asking for a reinstatement of the Uptick Rule, it has not happened.

Hence it is all political. Never forgetting that Hanky has been a trader. His traits of switching out of the backing of mortgages is refletive of trader behaviour. His original intention of 700B fund was to shock the market, however the effect was lost when Congress stall it.

The entire US financial market is mired in a web of politics, lobbying and self interests.

At the recent G20, China has hinted at a diversification from the US currency, while acknowledging that it itself is very much at stake.

Back to Citi, it is little semblance that the more international companies like AIG and Citi with good Asian assets becomming the prey. If they have nothing good, the vultures would have pass it off.

Now is time for Geithner to show his prowess again, and establish his credibility by leveraging on an joint international effort to shock the short sellers away.

It is time to enact the Patriotism Act to restore order. Such financial terrorism is even more severe than the criminal act of terrorist. Short selling funds taking advantage of the bad economy to sow the seeds of fear.

The obstacle to retoring the market is to identify the insiders in the establishment with short selling interest. Afterall, the market is made out of human, not God.

I propose:
(a) Restoring the uptick rule with immediate effect when market opens on Monday
(b) Reaffirming the intent to regulate the CDS market with a planned exchange starting in early 2009, and full disclosures of CDS by all participants with immediate effect
(c) Treausry to resume purchasing bad mortgages on a case-by-case basis, with Citibank as the first candidate. Rid it of all the bad mortgages.
(d) Treasury to rally international SWF to establish a fund to buy failing bank assets. (as what the Swiss government did with UBS).
(e) Expand FBI and FED power to investigage collusion of company insiders with short selling Hedge Funds.

As for the Autos, I propose:
(a) Merging Chrysler into General Motor.
(b) Negotiate with the Unions to retire 20% of the workforce.
(c) Selling overseas plants to Japanese car makers.
(d) Government to guarantee bonds issues by the Auto companies
(e) All Auto top execs to step down

In no means I am offering myself as the next Treasury Undersectreary for financial markets. Thank you.

17 Nov G20 Disappoints

this Asia morning, Nikkei falls lower and then rises. This week should be a ranging week. same for currencies.
I am watching Thanxgiving.

Here we have our first Celestial signs: the RED SUN. The Sun smoked by the California fire. Lots of California rich can now claim home insurance. Better than foreclosures.

Now waiting for a EarthQuake (shattering one) and a Fallen Star.

Nov 16 Outcome of G20 -> None

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081116/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_summit

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE4AD7AK20081115

It is definitely short of the Bretton Woods. Bush seizing every opportunity to speak, trying to reassert US dominance.

The next meeting would be in London in April. Then Obama would face Gordon Brown.

Market would probably be ranging in the beginning of next week, then conitinue its downward probe, or so called Break out of Range, with USD Index testing 90 end of next week, if not next week around Thanxgiving.

Just read the Financial Times, one FT writer wrote that once this recession fades off, steep inflation would return, especially Commodities.

Have been reading lately, quite a lot of bullish views on Commodities. Personally think Commodities is a good buy, as supply is limited. However it is a matter of the price level.

15 Nov G20 ongoing

just before G20, SPX made a new low on Thursday, though Dow did not. It remains to be seen if the rally can be sustained.

doubt is there is any immediate forex reaction post G20.

Point to note is the coming Thanxgiving on Nov 27. 8 more days of trading. Which direction ? USD more strength ? or end of journey ?

Million Dollars quesiton no doubt.

The Asian countries, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, China are coming together to increase monetary collaboration, may be some monetary alliance via the Asia Development Bank. May be in anticipation of next bout of Asian currencies weakness. The emerging economies are next target of insitutions selling.

From chart above, done on Friday early morning, it shows EURUSD failing before the downtrend line. Indeed Friday it closed lower from peak. It closed the week at 1.2605. If EURUSD cannot make a decisive move below 1.2400, it may wait till Thanxgiving before making a dash towards 1.2000.

Before the G20, White House spokeswoman said that US is more concerned on finding the cause of the current crisis than the solution. Everybody knows US is the problem itself.

Now Congressman blasting Treasury Kashkiri for flip-flopping on the use of monies on saving mortgage owners. More confusion in congress, more confusion in the market, more strength to the DOLLAR.

Iran planning to meet with Russia in Cairo on Nov 29 to engineer some output cuts.

Once the market stabilises, the DOLLAR is doomed, by meanwhile it is on steroids.

The much awaited bottom of the stock market is coming. The world would watch in awe. However am waiting for some celestials signs.
Incidentally, South Californians have been drilling for earthquake.
The divine would gives its signal when Enough is Enough.

By the way, all these selling in stocks are all manipulation by Hedge Funds and Institutions. Nothing is random.

G20 Bretton Wood II

A historic event is brewing. Just as Obama elect is a historic event in American history.

Rumours abound such as IMF shifting to Asia. HK, Singapore and Shanghai would be likely candidates. For China to invest in IMF, that leaves HK as the only candidate.

As for the fate of USD, unfortunately, the current spate of USD rally is more of risk aversion rather than fundamental strength.

Whatever comes out of G20 would be disadvantageous to USD, it is just a matter of severity.

Essentially G20 can acknowledge the importance of Euro as an alternate currency to USD as reserve, and encourage China to internationalise it RMB.

With another round of USD weakness, US exports may just save the economy again together with fiscal stimulus.

The world by no means is staging a recovery, but a bottom is put in place. Hence it would take a while for the next stock market plunge to come. Probably in May, months after Obama takes office and its mystic fades.

Having said this, do expect a spike in USD after the G20. (as usual to flush out the Euro longs).

4 Sept Euro, Gold, Russia, Georgia, Stocks, IKE

Hurricane IKE is coming

I= 9th alphabet
K= 11th
E = 5th hurricance of this season which is IKE, or worst still Category 5.

Think all the oil rigs in Gulf would be wiped off the ocean with a category 5 hurricane.

Now Cheney is confirming Georgia joining NATO. There is not much time left for Russia, Saakhasvilli has to be taken out soon.

IF Saakhashvilli launch an attack to retake South Ossetia, NATO would be behind him.

Currently there are 3 US ships, and 8 others European ships in Blacksea.
Possibly US special forces are deployed around Tbilishi now and taking up OP forward.

The Seismology community in China is rumoured that there would be another major earthquake in Tibet.

Today all Asia markets slide, just short of plunge.

North Korea is said to be rebuilding its nuclear facility.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2008/09/20089421923531167.html

there are too much headwind in Asia now, Thailand and Malaysia with politcal turmoil. Korea currency in crisis. Japan premiership in trouble.
Now just waiting for others: Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore, Philippine to show up.

The NFP coming Friday should be the turning point.

1 Sep Russia, Equities, GBP, Euro, USD.

last yr on Labour Day, trader push USD lower, now this yr, traders push Euro lower. Europe is in peril, b'cos of its tension with Russia. And this is going to be a slow boil. Now media focusing attention on German banks, which hardly derserve a mention.

GBP is weakening at a accelerating rate, b'cos of the usual conspiracy theory of UK joining Euroland eventually. Until then, we see a chance of Euro recovering.

Eventually I do not rule out 1.3000 (reachable next yr). then another bout of USD weakness towards 1.7000, that would be 2-3 yrs away.

With the GBP at record low, UK banks would soon be victims of takeover. That would include imperial brand names like HSBC, Barclays.

The is nothing good with USD, it is a promiscous currency. As the saying goes, every prostitute has her day.

Euro would soon be decimated when its bowing to Russia clutch on its oil supply, and growing Russian infludence in Ukraine, Czech, Georgia, etc.

Ever since Condi, a Russian expert herself, took over as Secretary of State, there has been a stealth plan to diminish Russian influence on its neighbours, and circle Russia with US forces. Iran problem was sort of a decoy to absorb Russia and China.

Just before Bush term ends, all the efforts are now going to nought. With North Korea stopping its denuclearisation. Iran nows seem bolder and going to side with Russia. China prefer to be ambivalent.

As for World Equities, we are into new era, a confirmed bear market with countertrend rallies here and there. When the last drop of liquidity on the sidelines is exhausted, and when SWF has exhausted their funds with averaging, then we would reach a bottom. Obviously, by that standard, we are far from a botton.

24 Aug Beijing Olympics complete

the completion of the Beijing Olympics mark the end of an era for China. When China was bullied back in the 1800s under the late Qing Dynasty, with incursion from the 8 Countries (UK, Holland, Spain, US, etc) and then occupation by Japan.

Under the opening up of the Communist rule, China has prospered. The stock market is teething on 2500, after falling from 6000.

There are many billionairs in Beijing watching the Olympics, may be they would take out some monies to buy some stock in China.

As I previously forecasted, Saakhasvilli would disappear from Georgia on the 24 Aug.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/200882491453556899.html

Let us see how the market reacts. Probably the funds are buying secretly meanwhile.

23 Aug GOLD and the FED

http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/08/21/2008-08-21T203934Z_01_N21515012_RTRIDST_0_GOLD-EAGLE-SHORTAGE-UPDATE-2.html

Let us talk about GOLD. US government suspends minting of American EAgles can only be good news for the bulls.

It is the largest 1 ounce GOLD that are short, meaning the buying are form the Big buyers not from the man in the street.

Bços of the high cost of extraction, (energy, facilities, labour), Gold price has to stay above a certain level to make extraction sensible. Otherwise the miners would halt, and supply would drop.

Hence there is a certain floor to Gold price on a long term basis. The largest miners are now in China, with South Africa in the second. American Gold mine are now on a down path.

There are lots of Gold ETF around, in Asia, Singapore, HK. and China launched their GOLD Futures trading last yr. GOLD buying has been a trend as a preservation of wealth, not as a speculative tool. It is not a frenzy yet, the masses have not caught on with GOLD.

The Government stops minting Gold bços the cost has escalated, and with the low Gold price at 800, it is not profitable to do so. Ironically, the Government may instead be hoarding the GOLD either bços it sees GOLD going higher, if not it itself is in negative holding of GOLD.

GATA (www.gata.org) weeks before GOLD peak at 1030, was demanding an inspection of the US Treasury GOLD, which came to no conclusion. Has the Treausry been depleting US GOLD to enter into loan/swap agreements to generate revenue ? And that make the real GOLD holding of the US government much lesser than what is on the books.

Hence the real question is NOT how much of GOLD the public holds in ETFs, but how much of GOLD does the Treasury really owns ?

And Bernanke has said that he glances at the price of GOLD occasionally during the day. The FED is mindful of the price of GOLD. Bços GOLD stands for the TRUTH.

in the 1800's, Americans, UK, Dutch, French sells opium to China in exchange for gold, silver, jades, ornaments, etc. A big portion of the GOLD held by ECB, and US orignates from China.

China/Japan/India and other Asian countries have very low holdings of GOLD in relation to their foreign reserves.

With USD at current level, it is good time to diversify from Treasuries bonds, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds to GOLD. And that explains why US is running out of GOLD to mint the American Eagles.

It is the first sign of US Treasury cracking. The biggest credit crisis is not the Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, or Fannie, Freddie, it is the FEDERAL RESERVE. Note the word "RESERVE". When the RESERVE runs out of reserves, it is going to be the Mother of all Bubbles.

21 Aug Asia Financial Crisis

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200808/200808210026.html

Seems like the seeds are in for a repeat of Asia Financial Crisis, with a rapid depletion of the Foreign Reserves kept by Asia Central Banks.

E.g. Korea has been depleting their reserves defending the won, buying Won and selling USD.

And more agressive Central Banks like Singapore through their Sovereign Wealth Fund have depleted their reserves buying up UBS, CitiBank, Meryll Lynch, with the investment cut into half within months.

Hence looking at the rear view mirror, the notion of Asia decoupling from US markets is a myth. Once this myth becomes more obvious or evident to the general public, we may have a panic selling of Equities of all sort.

We are far from the bottom, despite the FED, Treasury, owners of investment banks try to make us believe the bottom is in.

20 Aug Tribute to the Lion.

I am in front of the HSBC main branch in Central HK. Right besides the Lion of HSBC.
I see the baracades being lowered. When they lower the barricade, there would be alarms. You see see the progress of the barricades.

That reminds me of the market. GOD is merciful to warn your of the coming stock market plunge. If you do not heed you would be in the baricade.

May GOD have mercy on you......

18 Aug Pakistan

another hotspot, Pervez Musharraf is resigning. not a sudden news, but anticipated. Implication, the Taliban militants would soon be stirring, bços the democratic party of the late Benazir Bhutto, probably want to get even with the Taliban. And we would expect wide spread violence in a Nuclear Enabled Country.

US is losing power in Pakistan, and going to relinquish Iraq soon. The stage is now set for violent GeoPolitical events.

Gold fell as it has no fear. Just like a stuntman, if you know you would be well cushioned, the fall is ok. In fact the more dramatic the fall, the better it is.

As does EURO.

17 Aug Georgia to join NATO. War is brewing.

Merkel visiting Tbilisi, has invited Georgia to join NATO,
Saakhasvilli is refusing to cede any land to Russia.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3570539,00.html

If Georgia join NATO, Russia would be up against the whole of Europe, US, UK Turkey, etc.

Russia has to seize first mover advantage now and retake Tbilisi and install a Russia friendly government. In order to stall NATO forces, it need to take down the oil pipeline, and cut Europe oil supply. This would make NATO hesistant to mobilising its Naval Armanda, and aircraft without secured long term fuel supply.

Meanwhile, Iran would blockade the Homuz Straits in support of Russia.
BTW, Iran would speed up its plutonium enrichment program. By mid 2009, Iran would be able to equip its missle warhead with nuclear, (Russia would send in some newer long range missles infact).

As a parallel event, Israel would now to start activate its military strike preparation against Iran.

While China would play good guy and try to mediate. (a fight between Russia and US would propel China into a superpower). And UN with a hapless Ban Kee Moon.

Probably, the Taliban elements would take advantage and activate its sleeper cells with the proverbial suitcase nuclear device.
(it was reported that the New York state government has ordered more Geiger Counter recently).

By the time Olympics, the world is back to the reality of superpower competition.

IF you agree this is the scenario, pls click on the Google Ads.

17 Aug Georgia update

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/200881623730798306.html

Russians are still on the move, despite so called Russia signing the truce.

With Poland signing the interceptor missles with US on last Thursday, there is no incentive for Russia to retreat. Any prolonged truce would allow Georgia to fortify its position with NATO peacekeepers, and then launch an international campaign to retake South Ossetia. Then Russia would be hapless.

I am sure there were countless truce agreement with Hitler, but Hitler still managed to retake whole of Europe.

The only peace can come if Saakhashvilli literally disappear from Tbilisi, and then install a Russian friendly government. Much like what US did with Iraq.

Now with Sarkozy, Rice, Merkel meddling, think the only way to halt their advances is to give them a shock.

The shock will come if the Oil Depots on the Black Sea got wiped out, if not the oil pipelines got cut off.

16 Aug has passed. No new happenings, looking forward to Crawford prediction.

17 Aug Dollar Bubble

today, I learn a new word. Do we see a bubble in Dollar ? as in a Bubble in Oil, Commodities, China Equities, etc ?

A bubble means Irrational Exuberance about something. Is USD that great ?

Having said that, would wait for the parabolic rise of USD to signal the end.
As in every parabolic move, there would be a short retracement, followed by a higher move up. Look for DXY to move into 80s.

Which would be bullish for US Equities, while interestingly World Wide Equities slump, especially Asian ones.

Probably USD would rise till end Nov, much like what happened back in Autumn and Winter 2005.

By then Euro would be down to 1.3990. Gold down to 600. Good old days, or rather markets in anticipation of Deflation, not inflation.

If you are a Euro buff, or Gold Bug, dun worry, it is just a Dollar Bubble. Everything would reverse to mean eventually.

Lehman Brothers planning to sell its commercial Real Estate portfolio, but no buyer yet.

The next shoe would be commercial real estate. Banks, Financial Institutions pulling their backoffice out of America. Consumers spending less, retail big names cutting their stores.

However, the most significant thing now is not all these frills, but a change in the mindset of Americans. Gurus go on national talkshow, teaching people how to get the best out of the government, by walking away from loans, applying for credits, applying for government grants.

Americans are not using creativity or hardwork to make a living, but trying to skive a living.

Now the credit problems has spread to Alt-A mortgages, it is going to spread like fire when it becomes a fad to work away from your loan if it is in negative equities.
( much like some Californians torching their house to claim insurance).

Capitals gained by Banks would just go back to redeem the mistakes of the public at large. It is an endless pit. No amount of capital is enough. No amount of FED printing Dollars is sufficient.

Hence that is why it is a Dollar Bubble.

If you agree it is a Dollar Bubble, pls click on the Google Ads.

16 Aug Week ahead

on this lunar eclipse day, it makes sense to take stock of what is happening.

Weeks ago, China announced new policy to allow China companies to retain their foreign earnings overseas, and not to repatriate back to China into Yuan.

This would diminish the demand for Yuan, and hence the reduce the appreciation of the Chinese Yuan. However foreign funds pressed by the lack of liquidity has decided not to wait but to cash out of the market, by selling China Equities and China Real Estate, and repatriate the monies into USD. By rigging the USD higher, the funds manage to increase their returns relative to other currencies, e.g. EUR.

In one more week, the Olympics would complete. The next show would start.

Meanwhile the reptriated funds are flowing into the US markets, hence you see US Equities well supported.

How far would USD goes ? The easier part of the journey is completed, the more difficult part begins, with 1.4500 in view, and it would takes weeks if not month.

Do not expect a miracle with any substantial retracement, any retracement of Euro would be sold into.

Sell Euro 1.5000 (if there is any such retracement)

Euro is now in a Bear MArket, sell into strength.

If you agree what I say, click on the Google Ads.

15 Aug watch 16 Aug

Arch Crawford predicted happening on 16 Aug. 160808.

These are definitely violent times.......Only the brave would thread.

14 Aug World War Three, Iran, US and Russia

World War III is coming. As long been told by Nostradamus.

Today, as of writing, US naval armanda is now gathering in the Mediterranean Sea and towards Straits of Homuz, to serve 2 fronts, Iran and the Caucasus region.

US would be fighting 2 wars at one go.

Markets are fleeing into USD, while golbal Equities are tumbling. Gold rising, Oil rising. Imagine that you have a world when USD, Oil and Gold are rising.

The Asian currencies would be battered to death literally.

With the spectre of War imminent, Americans would rally around war veteran like McCain, making Obama hope of winning the election dimmer.

Probably, US intelligence knows of Georgia and Russian moves way ahead, but allow this to brew in support of the Republican.

Now the sudden rise of USD makes sense.

13 Aug Fake retreat

The Russian announced a truce yesterday, and today they manage to occupy a key Georgian city.

Sakorzy was thought to be the hero, but ended as the decoy.

that is how the market is. We may see another bout of USD strength, before USD really gives up or announce victory.

12 Aug Gold crash

all instruments seem to be in a hurry, Euro, Gold, Oil, etc.

possibly the cause would be revealed in a while. Some Long Funds probably would be going bust.

My targets:

Long Euro 1.4700- 1.4710

Long Crude 98-100

Long Gold 750

As quickly it falls, the rise would be as dramatci.

Remember you get this only on dollarpro.blogspot.com

11 Aug media rigging this current rally

national TV reports a survey done on 50 economist that US is slipping into recession, with 51% say yes, 49% say no. But the tone is negative.

While the Equities are rallying, interesting.

Possibly, fresh funds come into the market.SPX at 1306. 14 more points possibly to come at the market close, if not tomorrow opening.

IF you like this forecast like the XLF, or Euro, GOLD, write to me for subscriptions
at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with heading "Subscription".

The rally continues

well, perhaps the markets know something we dun't, it keeps rallying, while Euro, Oil, Gold keeps falling.

reaching 1302 as of now. Possibly there are too many Put options out there expiring this week, market wanna take them out.

safest time to reenter with a short would be this Friday.

Expect SPX to move up to 1320 to 1327 level, as projected earlier. Won't rule out a spike to 1340.

also expect Euro to drop towards 1.4700, the much awaited target.
Gold to 600 was some targets others were talking about.

10 Aug Georgina, where are you ?

Recently Russian stock market has been tumbling partly bços of the falling Oil. As Russian stock market is heavily weighted in Oil stocks, e.g. Gazprom, Rosneft, etc.

The Baku pipeline which runs through Georgia is the only supply US and Europe has independent of Saudi and Russian supplies.

Hence with the Baku pipeline cut off (which part of it has happened in Turkey territory last week), the world would be in a greater Oil Shock.

There are incentives for both sides, the Georgia incumbent government and the defecting South Ossetia to cut the pipeline. The Georgian armies are trained by US, and is an US ally, while the South Ossetia has been a Russian affiliate.

Putin has his reputation at stake to wrench South Ossetia away from Georgian control. However this mini-war is going to kindle other defections pro and against Russia in the former Russia continent, e.g. Tskhininvali, Chechnya, etc.

Meanwhile Iran has been awfully quiet after Europe impose new sanctions, and US threatening further measures. Expect Iran to go absolutely quiet ahead of its frantic push to accomplish its first nuclear reactor.

One side though, my daughter is due for birth soon, may be I should call her Georgina.

Going through the news, I read investment guru dishing out advice people to invest for the long term, especially stocks. Also known celebrities switching to public transport.

For myself, I am redeeming my credit cards points, now for gasoline vouchers instead of shopping vouchers.

The onset of Kondratieff Winter is here, when prices keeping falling. One thing that is still holding up is the massive Real Estate market in Asia, where all brokers and banks, (as I called them Goldman Sucks, Lesbian Brothers, Morning Standing, Mary Lynch, Sistergrope) have substanstial investments.

Once their pricey investment goes bust, the jewel in the crown would be lost. And these external events, Bernanke and Hank are helpless against.

Kondratieff Winter is still at this stage a Black Swan event.

Meanwhile the Large Hydron Collider experiment would only run in September. That is a bigger Black Swan event.

9 Aug Georgia War

today, an American is killed by a Chinese in Beijing, and then the Chinese leaped to his death.

Meanwhile Russia is ready to ignite way on Georgia, which borders Turkey. Georgia is where oil pipelines pass to Europe from the Caspian Sea (independent of Russia).

While Bush is in Beijing, extremely friendly with Putin. US has not expressed any view while its allies in Georgia is under threat.

The IAEA inspectors are due to conclude their visit to Iran. While EU implemented some toothless sanctions.

Watch out for Israel making secret deployment to Iraq with helicopter squandrons, incase its fighters got shot down in Iran. May be to heighten pressure on Iran to concede.

Olympics last for 17 days, wait for the hooray to fade and the world comes back to reality.

080808 8am ET What is going to happen

Pivotal day today.
so far on quiet on the Asia front. Asia markets lethargic, the much awaited Olympic rally never came, dissappointing millions of Stock Investors in Asia.

While USD is out of control, rising against all currencies.

AUDUSD dropping sharply, most Asia currencies investors feeling the pinch, when their capital actually diminishes. it is now below 0.9000.

USDSGD flirting with 1.4000, a much crucial level for the Singapore government.

USDCNY reach a low of 6.8005, after an important decision by the China government no longer requiring companies to repatriate their foreign reservces into China and convert into CNY. i.e. China foreign reserve would shrink from now on. Lesser demand for CNY. CNY would stop appreciating and may reverse course soon.

While the titanic turns, speculative monies would be finding all means to escape from China. I.e., Funds cashing out of China real estate. Monies flowing back to US, possibly into the US stock market, Oil, commodities, etc.

The end of the Olympic would herald a new world, China admitted to the statehood of a developed nation in waiting, with a much slower growth.

Sout Asia would possibly come to a standstill when Japan has openly acknowledged recession, US in denial mode, Europe Trichet has finally admitted slower growth, UK repeatedly reminded of it being in recesion. Next China would join.

Almost 8 months after I made my call for a worldwide recession, the world has to come to acknowledge it on the Olympic day.

We are lucky if we just have recession short of a war in middleeast.

We would also be lucky to have a war short of a catastropic event at the Large Hydron Collider activating today on 080808.

8 Aug SPX, INDU topping

market has topped out, seems like 38.2% retracement is about all.
with AIG, NFP, retails sales, Citigroup, all bad news, market should have crashed. However not, bços too many pple shorting the market.

Market just whipsawing shaking the weak long and short.

if you agree, do click on the Google Ads.

Euro 1.5300 should be the bottom, Gold spot at 657.

7 Aug Euro to 1.5300

By noon ET, Euro would have travelled to 1.5340 ready for the spike down. 1.5298
is a possible leap target.

If you agree this is the scenario, click on the Google Ads as enthusistically as you can.

6 Aug TOP is coming

you can see the twin towers, the IFC anc ICC in Hong Kong. The WTC Twin Towers have now reincarnated in Hong Kong. The IFC is the home to the Monetary Authority of HK, and next to the Four Seasons hotel. The other ICC is under construction.

Question for today:

Would Euro dive for the bottom at 1.5300, so does Gold towards 560 ?

If you think so, click on the Google Ads.

5 Aug Gold is melting down and there is a conspiracy

As I am writing Gold is melting, spot Gold hitting 883,

however I find some very good fundamentals about Gold. Aliens from outer space want our gold !!!!

http://paranormal.about.com/library/weekly/aa021102a.htm

The story of the Anunnaki is told in Sitchin's many books and is digested, augmented and speculated about in dozens of websites. But the tale is essentially this: About 450,000 years ago, Alalu, the deposed ruler of the Anunnaki on Nibiru, escaped the planet on a spaceship and found refuge on Earth. He discovered that Earth had plenty of gold, which Nibiru needed to protect its diminishing atmosphere. They began to mine Earth's gold, and there were a lot of political battles among the Anunnaki for power. Then around 300,000 years or so ago, the Anunnaki decided to create a race of workers by genetically manipulating the primates on the planet. The result was homo sapiens - us. Eventually, rulership of the Earth was handed over to humans and the Anunnaki left, at least for the time being. Sitchin ties all this - and much more - into the stories of the first books of the Bible and the histories of other ancient cultures, especially Egyptian. (Here's a good time chart of the alleged events.)

Anyway Edgar Cayce (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edgar_Cayce)
has a prophecy:

Earth Changes: Cayce coined the term "Earth Changes" (later widely used in New Age writings), a reference to a series of cataclysm events which he prophesied would take place in future decades — notably including the Earth shifting on its axis, and most of California dropping into the Pacific Ocean following a catastrophic earthquake.

4 Aug Nibiru

when a fiery red planet crosses between the Sun and Earth in Dec 2012, it would cause a pole shift and trigger earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.

The planet is called Nibiru.

No wonder, Richard Branson is working on his spacecraft. Then a seat on the spacebound plane would cause billions.

The public is not aware yet. And this only tells us that the Oct 2007 top in the stock market is the top for the next decade, till the devastation past and remaining 1/3 of the Earth population manage to survive and rebuild everything, literally EVERYTHING.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoWrtZX6J4c

4 Aug Waiting for Bernanke

Market trapped in ranges, waiting for Bernanke, whatever happens it owuld be a breakout in either direction.

If you think Euro is going to breakdown into 1.5300, do click on the Google Ads.
so that I can survey the sentiments and report here.

Some side thoughts here:

I was in HK, and when I came out of my hotel Sheraton in a place called Tsimsatsui on the esplanade in HK (a supposiingly awesome place with a view of the whole harbour) in the evenining. I saw lots of Africans, middle-eastern people roaming the streets. I am surprised by their numbers.

HK is a open city, and obviously it has been invaded by all cultures and forces.

Then I saw a HK movie called "Green Moss" , a reality movies depicting South Asians (pple from India, Pakistan, Blangesdesh) gangs operating in HK, all armed with M16, AK47.

Then it dawn on me that the FORCES have already infiltrated into HK.

I was in Shenzhen, spending my weekend in a reputable spa. I freuqnet the place quite a lot, you have pple from Norway, Europe coming all the way to visit the place.
And I saw increasing number of MiddleEastern faces.

While China ascends the world stage, it has now to face with the reality,
"you do not choose your enemies, but your enemies choose you."

While the Chinese media is hyping about threats from the East, so called the muslims from the Eastern province Ëastern Turks", bordering India, Afghanistan, little is known that external forces have infiltrated from the south all this while. Probably the HK police was asleep all these years.

Noteworthy, Sakorzy, Bush, Gordon Brown, Kevin Rudd would all be attending the opening ceremony in Beijing on the 080808.

Beijing was annouced as the winner of the 2008 Olympics in late 2001. Ample time for evil forces to plan and execute.

Beijing citizens saw their Solar Eclipse once in hundreds years on last Friday, 1 Aug. Tremors have been felt in California, Japan, recently, and not too far the China SzeChuan earthquake.

Am now looking out for a convincing falling star or Meteorite of sort, to confirm the Revelations Celestial Signs.

Lastly, am waiting for the activation of the Large Hydron Collider (LHC).

Some of you after reading this, think that we are at the end of the world. no worries.
The end is only coming on the 21 Dec 2012, as told my the Mayan 5000 year cycle calender.

http://www.december212012.com/

also reminded me of the beheading on the Greyhound bus in Canada. Darkness has arrived.

31 Jul Apocalypse

to correct earlier post.
It is not a lunar eclipse, but a Solar Eclipse on 1 Aug. It should be visible in Europe at about late morning.

The last one was in mid-September 2007, just before the Stock Market top in October.

To confirm the Apocalyptic Celestial Signs, we also have a EarthQuake in Los Angeles.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci14383980.php

and Meteorite signtings off the west coast of New Zealand.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4613966a11.html

8 August (080808) is the opening ceremony of Beijing Olympics,

and also the date of the start of the CERN Large Hydron Collider experiement.

http://www.lhcountdown.com/

Now the question is:
When Apocalypse comes, what would rise ? USD ? Euro ? Oil ? Commodities ? or Human Beings from their grave ?

It is interesting to note that Obama has engaged Volcker and Rubin as advisors. For the junior reader, Volcker was the previous FED Chairman before Greenspan who hike Fed Fund rate to 11%.

30 Jul Euro

Euro should be on its way to 1.5300. Even Bill Gross says so.

Yesterday we had a Earthquake in Los Angeles, and then a Lunar eclipse is coming this Friday.

Celestial Signs abound, do watch out. We need a falling star to confirm.

080808 is the first day of Beijing Olympics, and the start of the CERN Large Hydron Collider experiment, which may trigger unknown events.

26 Jul SPX 1144

It is going to be a violent Thursday and Friday.

23 Jul Euro on target 1.5690

Also my S&P, Citigroup all on target

and more importantly my call on Euro.
all my subscribers would be laughing to the bank literally.

if you like such ideas posted, pls click on the Google Ads here to show your interest.

23 Jul WAR in South East Asia

Thailand and Cambodia armies are in standoff along the Border.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/362187/1/.html

Perhaps we would see a Stock selloff in South Asia countries tomorrow.

If you agree that there would be Stock Selloff, pls click on the Google Ads.

23 Jul proverbial rebound of the USD

Paulson has saved the world.
If you think the much awaited rebound of USD is underway, pls click ont he Google Ads.
Reminded me of 2/3rd Qtr 2005, when USD keeps rallying despite all the bad data.

22 Jul Euro Rebound

Seven days ago, I forecasting Euro is on its way towards 1.6381, before it get stopped out at 1.6038.

rumours had it that Central Banks intervened at 1.6000 level.

Euro/Gold is die hard and want to retest.

My scenario is that Euro would rise towards 1.5950 waiting to jump higher. While Oil going to retest 140.
IF you agree to this scenario, click on the Google Ads

21 Jul Citigroup

Let us see how Citigroup do.

if you think Citigroup would top near 21.49, pls click on the Google ads.

30 dollars midterm.

Just in,
Hong Kong now is infested with workers strike, media rampant with reports of Transportation workers on strike for pay rise.

the last round of inflation effect is in. HK peg to USD would be under stress.

20 Jul Fooled by Randomness. Watch 8 august. 080808.

was reading "fooled by randomness" to kill my weekend. Am to eager to wait for next week to take some profits on my trades.

the same author wrote the best sellers "the Black Swan".

what is their install for next week? the economic calender wold be light, albeit with some earnings. Most importantly Naked shorting the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the brokerages wold not be allowed.

Latest update:
the Iran Nuclear talks yields no results on Saturday
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/361475/1/.html

We may see a Oil rebound on Monday Asia open, towards 140.

Naked shorting is like leveraging long. Naked shorting is even more potent. You sell what yo do not own, while for leveraging, you still need to buy an amount.

suspect those retails who follow the trend and shorted Financials, or Indices still have some to cover.

As for Forex, expect USD to inch up slowly. However there were some late news from Trichet that he wants to maintain inflation at 2% in the medium term. Also some Oil deals disputes from China about US/Vietnam cooperation on the Oil fields offshore.

However there are some thing more important taking place.

8 August is the start of the Beijing Olympics, scheduled to end on 24 August. This would mark a turning point, perhaps in the reversal of Yuan appreciation.

there has been talks of slowing Yuan appreciation. As we traders know, there is no such slowing but a capitulation.

Another major event is the activation of the Large Hydron Collider experiment in Geneva. Human Beings are playing dice with God. The worst outcome is a Black Hole engulfing earth, or not appearance or disappearance of strange things. Like X-files.

http://www.lhcountdown.com/

we are now 18 days away, which brings us to 8 August as well.

Probably we can put an Option on the LHC experiment. If the experiment brings about great calamity or even the end of the world, we could be in for a bundle.

Those who believe significant market events would happen on the 8 August 2008,080808.

pls click on the Google Ads.

18 Jul CitiBank earnings surprise

This is my forecast for DOW, DOW would top out at 11472, for another leg downwards.

However the risk is that CL1 has fallen below 130, and may be heading for weeks of losses ahead.

Otherwise, we may also see an Earning Surprise for CitiBank today, to the DOWNSIDE.

As for S&P, it is near to my forecast top for this week.

If you agree that the current Stock Rally, due to Short Coverings is coming to an end,, pls click on the Google Ads.

18 Jul Surprising Earnings ? Gold to top 1002

well, it is just the analyst ploy to depress earnings forecast and then rally the market when it is exceeded.

Gold manage to hold 958, and seems like testing 1002.

IF you agree that Gold would penetrate 1000 once more, pls click on the Google Ads.
Probably Gold would fall back to form a Double Top.

16 Jul GOD save the SECRETARY

Hank was trying to save the world yesterday. He shows his tenacity. I have worked under him, and his is the Greatest Secretary Treasury of all time.

Let us all, the TRADERS, the markets, show support for him.

Let Financial rise like it has never had orgasm before.

Meanwhile, USD would ride higher.

Over the weekend, I have told my readers my bottom for SPX is 1227, indeed not far from the low of 1225.(see Chart above)

Also, my forecast of Gold top at 985 is very close as well.

CL1 should drop to 110 if not 98.

Would expect Euro to drop back to around 1.5600 and wait there.

If you agree Euro would drop back to 1.5600 pls click on the Google Ads.

By the way, in Bernanke Testimony to the congress, he says he does not rule out intervention if the currency market gets out of control.

One of the rule of FOREX trading: dun stand in the way of the FED.

CHINA UPDATE: SUBPRIME IN CHINA NEXT------------------------------------
there are news coming out from China that home buyers in southern China city of Shenzhen bordering Hong Kong, are walking away from their home loans, when the house price has fallen significantly below their loan.

China Banks have the highest exposure to American Fannie May and Freddie Mac.

China is pondering slowing its Yuan appreciation, policy makers meeting this week. In order to boost export and save thousands small enterprises on the brink of bankruptcy.

Asian real estate, residential and commercial have rose to astronomical levels. Prices of prime units in Singapore has even exceed those if London, New York. Hot monies have poured into Singapore/HK/Shanghai snapping up assets and chasing prices. Hence Asia Real Estate is the next shoe to fall, then it would impact a long of Real Estates investment of JP Morgan, Lehman Brothers, GS, etc.

Soon we would see hot monies in Asia rushing for exit.

Hence, we may find a bout of USD strength b'cos of the falling Asia equities.

16 Jul signs of turning point

the China Commerce Minister has openly asked for a slowing rise in the Yuan.

US has depatched a diplomat to Iran in talks between the Iran and IAEA.

Intel announced better than expected results yesterday after market closed.

Be careful.

If you think that Euro would break 1.6038 and head towards 1.6100, pls click on the Google Ads.

15 Jul Dollar Crisis

Dow to hit 10570, now at 10870.

Euro to hit 1.6370, or may be even 1.6400.

IF you want timely update, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

If you agree that Euro would goto at least 1.6300, click on the Google Ads.

Today national TV played Jim Rogers and Noriel Roubin, and as you know, it is Double Terror, like as if tomorrow is Apocalypse.

You can't blame them, major Traders are now positioned for the Short Equities and Dollar Trade, Long Commodity, Long Gold. There is no where else for them to make monies, no more CDS, no more Mortgage business. Hence the National Media is paid to hype the fear.

As you know the Treasury Secretary himself was the world best Trader (from Goldman Sachs), he knows all Shorts have to be bought back eventually. Hence he is not worried, but buying time.

Beware of commentaries calling Top in Dollar, Bottom in Equities. Every rebounce would be sold into.

Hence stayed out, if not play on the right side.

12 July GOLD target 967 reached

I forecasted 913 as the support for GOLD (see my earlier posts), and my target of 967 has reached. 50 USD gain for my subscribers, no frills.

Monday, it either extends towards 1000, if not drop back towards 900.

We may have a flight to safety and people exits from Long Gold futures positions b'cos of Bank Run scare. also options expiring coming.

If you agree GOLD would test 1000 coming week, pls click on the Google Ads.

13 July INDY MAC

quietly FED has foreclosed a Bank on Friday late afternoon: INDY MAC. Senator Schumer last month issued a warning on the Bank, and it triggered a Bank Run on INDY MAC.
Finally it is closed on Friday.

Some Asia newspaper have it on Front Page over the weekend. Watch out for Tsunamis in Asia on Monday morning.

The latest rally last week in Asia, has sucked in quite a few monies. Won't be surprised to see a 10% correction next week in Asia.

Phil Gramm (McCain economic adviser) calls American whiners. It has always been the characteristics of Republicans to scorn on the poor, the unfortunate.

I had a nap, and I dreamt. I dreamt, Euro breaking 1.6000 in a whiff, and rose past 1.6100, 1.6200 within minutes.

You can imagine it on your screen. A Long White Candle, rising, rising. when everybody is covering their shorts.

FED is now helpless against a plunging USD. They are now handstrapped. They can't rescus Freddie and Fannie, as this would load another 5 trillion of debt onto existing 9 trillion debt owing to Foreign Governments. (I just can't resist the thought that the Chinese has lost big time on their Foreign Reserve. The Chinese had almost 2 yrs of time to diversify out of USD, and they prefer to engage in useless dialogue with Hank Paulson, thanx to Wu Yi, the dragon lady of China).

And FED cannot defend the dollar as they have higher priorities, e.g. buying out the Banks and GSEs. And it is all now resting in the hands of ECB. Oil is going to rise beyond 150 towards 200, and ECB would be most reluctant to weaken the Euro.

As I has always advised my readers, stay out of GBP. It is not worth the risk playing a highly manipulated currency. It swings up and down defying any technical indicators.

Long Euro 1.5860
Target 1.6300
Stoploss 1.5820

the risk is that Bush forestall the market, and announce the release of American Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This would trigger a down move in Oil, or perhaps a spike to 150 and downwards. Similarly for forex, a spike of Euro to 1.6000 and then down.

There are some interesting Google Ads here, e.g. I saw one saying "the stock market is ready to soar". Obviously, the pip pipper leading the children to drown.

However some of the Ads offer some interesting Commentaries and Free Trading Charts, do explore the links here. The link to SAXOBANK on the right is worthy to explore, they have good news and platform.

If you agree that Euro would break 1.6000 coming week, pls click on the Google Ads.

12 Jul Market full of lies, ruled by the Dark Force

you cann't help but to notice all the rumours flying, lies abound when the Moneymongers want to make monies from the crash.

First, Fannie Mae Freddie Mac, nothing has significantly changed for the companies for the past few weeks till yesterday.

William Poole, ex-FED governor make commments that the 2 GSE needs to be nationalised. And then talks of Lehman Brother crisis, and PIMCO, SAC Capital has to come out to disperse those rumours. (one wonders who has the monies to persuade a ex-governor to scare the market, much like what Greenspan has been doing).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a2hReA72Y2sk&refer=home

It is dispicable for ex-FED governors not doing their job when they are in their job, and after they leave their job, trying to fuel the crisis.

And then some news report from Jerusalem that Israel planes are practicing in Iraq for a Iran attack, spike Oil to 147. After which Pentagon came out to deny.

Sometimes, you can laugh at how disparate those Hedge Funds are in cooking up tales.
Just like some claim Jesus is a lady Or Jesus is married.

As for the Iran missle tests, the Irannians have doctored the photos to make the launch seems impressive, when actualy one or two of the missles fail to launch. Again another bag of bullshits of scare tactics.

Now there are talks that Meryll Lynch may disappoint market. B'cos talking heads on National TV say that John Thain has been quiet relative to others.

As Dimon of JP Moargan has rightly said, those who spread rumours on the Bear Stern crisis ought to be identified.

As the market says if your skills are no good, you have to have luck. And these people on Wall Street decide on the Evil path.

Bush should enact the Patriot Act to identify the people creating the crisis. And the acts of these people has affected the life of Americans, devastating the livelihood of Americans, the savings of Americans. These Dark Force may just be foreign interests, with lost of Oil monies, in cahoots with the ancestral families of America.

Somehow you just wonder where have all the Oil monies being going into ? Short the market and buy into the plunge ?

Precisely we need change in Washington, with Obama coming in, he should enact more stringent laws on the Financial World, making it a dignified market. Purge the capital markets of the rogue Dark Force.

The President of the United States is the God annointed one to fight the battle with the Dark Force. The Dark Force is so powerful that the Bernanke and Hank hide in its fold. (by the way, the FED is a private organisations with powerful families are shareholders).

From a currency perspective, the Dark Force is on the verge of crashing Euro through 1.6000, triggering the proverbial "Crash of the Dollar".

Now we ponder what are other lies that would emerge next week.

If you agree that the Dollar would crash through 1.6000 next week, pls click on the Google Ads.

8 Jul Crude topped, Euro, Gold to follow soon after / BlackHole

Crude has topped at 145.80,

so far Gold and Euro seems to be holding, but no longer, possibly after today 10am ET.

once spot Gold breaks 913, we would see a swift drop into 850. and Euro to drop to 1.5300.

If you want to trade this drop, you may subscribe to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

Why ? traders decide to take profit before something more ominous kicks in.

A pending scientific experiment creating a BlackHole that would engulf the Earth.

http://deepthought.newsvine.com/_news/2008/04/10/1422136-large-hadron-collider-understanding-the-dangers-part-1

http://features.csmonitor.com/innovation/2008/07/01/could-the-large-hadron-collider-destory-earth/

Scientist are saying that there may be a Black Hole being created at the Super Collider experiment.

There are various possiblities:

(a) A black hole created to engulf the Earth
(b) The experiment turns back time, and suddenly we are younger, (or never exists),
a lot of dead people appear before us.

that explains why the biggies are taking profit, to enjoy it while they still can.

If you think that there is a possiblity that a Black Hole would develop, pls click on the Google Ads.

7 Jul

5 Jul Battle of MiddleEarth would soon begin

Now Helmsdeep has passed, next come MiddleEarth.

where is middleEarth ? you want to know ? email me. dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

Would the journey ends here ? Death is just another path ? As Gandalf said. He sees white shore.

If you are near death, and want to see light ? email me.

Leno Show, 1716 ?
that is what Oil would be when Bush leaves office.

4 July Helmsdeep defended

From the chart, it held at 1.5700 and 1.5906 was the outcome.

IT was quite a bull trap. most newbies rushing in to buy Euro at 1.5860 to 1.5880.

If you are trapped, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for a escape route.

My readers are now either taken handsome 200 pips profit, if not sitting on it for more.

If you keep reading free commentaries like this:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10658.htm

you end up waiting for 1.6070 and lose a lot of monies, more than the subscription fees.

28 June Battle of Helmsdeep

the battle is looming. On 4 July, a epic battle would ensue.

I would call my forces to defend Helmsdeep against the offending Orks.

As King Aragon said, "Show them no mercy, as you will receive none".

As Sam said, "even the darkness would pass, and the sun shines even brighter", "there is some goodness in this world, that is worth fighting for".

Suaron wrath would be terrible, and the retribution swift. The battle of Helmsdeep would end and the battle of Middle Earth begins.

The Dow Jones would now mark the end of the journey, and the beginning of the battle back to the top and starts a new trend.

If you are trading stocks, commodities, Gold, or Forex,

Now I have open a new subscription plan for 1 month to help traders tide over this exceptional market. It is 200 USD for 1 month, pls email dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for subscription.

23 June Euro retrace

IT is definitely a trader market, buy low sell high.

after retrace, next target is in 1.5850.

if you agree, pls click on the Google Ads. If not subscribe to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for more updates.

21 June War

yes, almost feel like War is coming. US newspaper reported Israel airforce exercise simulating air strike on Iran.

Iran leader voicing "Braviour of the Iran race".

Little wonder, Oil never falls. The biggies unwilling to take profit ahead of a possible war.

For the Repblican to win, some war-like action is needed to galvanise support.

My target stated on 17 June has been reached at 1.5630. We should see some profit taking at this level. Reached as high as 1.5650.

If you made profit from my call, click on the Google Ads.

18 June EURO

stay away from GBP, a useless trade.

17 June Euro

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There was a survey out, the German are at their highest saving rate at 10%, since 1995. And the Americans are now facing mounting Credit Cards debt.

15 June Would a Stronger Dollar stop Oil rise ?

Unspoken, but it is understood that Carry Trade is here to return big time, so as to support the Equities.

the De-Leveraging of the Financial Markets has screeched to a stop, we should see a real bear rally in coming weeks.

That also means that the Carry Traders would continue to pump monies into Commodities, Oil, etc.

With all the calls in the congress to limit margin trading in oil, one doubt if US is any more a Free Market.

Just as when Enron collapse triggered the Sarbanes Oxley Act which make US markets less competitive. Brokers, funds would in future move some of their trading activities abroad into Asia. E.g. Meryll Lynch, Goldman Sachs have moved major Back Office operations to Singapore.

Core Inflation is actually inline with expectation in US, compared to other Asian countries.

While politicians is screaming Strong USD, while Oil keeps rising. When Euro is at 1.6000, Oil was just at 120, now Oil is 135, while Euro has dropped to 1.5300.

If Euro drops to 1.4500, Oil would still hovers at 130, imagine Petrol prices would sky rocket in Europe, and there would be more strikes, riots, etc.

US problems has started to migrate to Europe, and then the world. A stronger USD, coupled with rocketing Inflation in India, Vietnam are all recipes for a Asia Financial Crisis.

It is interesting that while US is trying to get on its feet, it is dragging others into the water. That falls into the gameplan of the Dark Forces. And that is how a global Kondratieff Winter comes about.

the answer would be out next week.

And Bernanke would once again be shown as a double talker, when he does not hike despite saying so.

The trust in the Greenback would once again be diminshed.

China is now at a dilemma if it should diversify its USD holdings, when the Democrats would likely win the next Presidency.

Then Pelosi would lose no time in seizing the China treasuries, and establish stronger ties with Tibet Dalai Lama.

Nonetheless, it is a USD rally weeks ahead till 25 June.
Short Euro 1.5380
Stoploss 1.5400
Target 1.5260

10 June Return of Carry Trade

amidst everybody attention on EURO, Yen has broken 106 convincingly. I used to forecast 106 as the interim top, it hit and bounced off, came back again and now at 106.80.

When everybody is going to hike, ECB, FED, BoE (sooner), only BoJ does not have the reason to hike.

This is at least what the market is believing now.

However, US economy is going to be so weak that Inflation is going to subside, while other countries are grappling with high inflation.

Hence, Bernanke recent tough talk is just a farce. Bernanke's greatest fear is not Inflation but Deflation (or the arrival of the Kondratieff Winter).

He is just talking about Inflation, USD on behalf of the Treasury, as he is a lackey of sort of the Bush administration.

When the Democrats take over, or when it is know they would in Nov. Bernanke would be facing last term in office.

Hence his priority now would be to hype the Americans into believing everything is fine, the FED is ahead of inflation. So that McCain has a fighting chance in winning, and also to deflect any Democrats accusation of a mismanaged economy. Bernanke is into damage control mode. Hence he would not hike well into November, but he would keep up with the talk, together with other hypocrites.

Though it is wisdom not to fight the FED, but do note that they have been wrong with their explanation of the "Inverted Yield Curve", the abrupt 75bp rate cut in Jan.

No doubt, Europe economy is in doubt, just as we would doubt emerging economies continued growth, China economies, at least ECB is more credible than the FED.

Bernanke and Trichet has just launched the new wave of Carry Trade well for the next 1 yr. We would see USDJPY back to 120 area, while more gain for EURJPY.

Meanwhile, German Wholesales price index came up, it is higher than expected.

As for Oil, look forward for it to limp forward towards 150 then 200 eventually. While Saudi came out with talks of meetings between Oil Producer and Consumer, it only serves to provide fuel for the Commercials to hedge at current levels, more short positions for the next rise.

Dun be surprise that the Princes and Kings are funnelling the Oil monies back into those commodities and oil hedge funds.

Reason: if you know you are running low on Oil reserve, every drop of it is going to be more precious that before. In fact the last drop of Oil from Saudi, Nigeria, Iran, Venuzuela would be priceless. "Peak Oil" has happened, it is now "Drying Oil".

Countries would now move onto Nuclear. With UK restarting its Nuclear program, similarly for other muslim countries, e.g. Pakistan, Indonesia, etc.

As Israel hawks are gain an upper hand over the weak Olmert, and the Israel knows that Obama is dead against military actions on Iran. Israel may well launch its pre-emptive strike on Iran before Bush leaves office, or more so before the November election, so as to provide cause for McCain to rally the nation.

Hence Isreal may seize first strike as it had done on Syria nuclear facilities, and launch a air strike on Iran. However, Russia may be providing the surveilance for Iran. Hence it is a pretty sticky situation. We may have a mini-war in ensuance. Bush is staged for this event with its loyal generals in command.

Note that recently Bush, Condi, Cheney have been unusually low profile on Iran matters.

Last note, as for the Pound, it should see greater strength only on 2010-2012, when it is going to hold the next Olympics. Housing fever would return to United Kingdom with its already starve land and growing population. Meanwhile GBP is waiting to go-down, not up. GBP is highly manipulative, as I always warned, stay out of GBP. The high volatility is not worth the risk.

Hence happy trading, if you need a Sherpa to guide you on your currency trades, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for subscription.

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4 June Bernanke buying USD

USD has not budged much, infact just a plunge and that is it.

Hence, post NFP, US Treasury and FED is going big time to intervene in the market by buying up all the USD out there. Bernanke is going to protect his reputation by all means.
The only thing that can thwart FED intention would be a "Black Swan" event.

We may see 1.5000 within a short time.

It is going to be violent in both directions. Hence stay out.

Long term view, in Martin Feldstein recent article, USD has a lot more to fall, due to its increasing deficits when Oil rise further. (it is an acknowledged fact among the insiders that Oil has a lot to move)

3 June Bernanke show hands

as I have said, the FED and Treasury are now into the market, intervening to support the Dollar.

Bernanke has said explicity that it is onhold. the current rate is conducive to promote growth.

Giving support to DOllar when the Hedge Funds are taking profit on their Oil Trade and switching their DOllar out into other currencies.

The high oil was waiting for the push on the Dollar before they are willing to take profit.

however, is USD really so attractive overnight ?

USD has been many time longer on earth than Euros. There are still droves of pple waitng to cash out of USD.

As I have warned my Readers, the spike up in the Europe open was a fake move.

Not too long ago, Bernanke was once talking about watching inflation, and then when the subprime hits, he quickly changed tune and cut 75bp.

FED has a crediblity problem. And we know that there are more subprime out there.

Hence the money mongers are setting up another show, first a Goldilog scenario, economy is on recovery, interest rate is right. Sucking in all the monies.

Then suddenly a bad data, and then market plunge again. While the Funds would have finished selling into the rally.

What is the Money mongers need now is to take profit. And FED and Treasury is in cohoots to make that happen, a higher USD, to allow the Oil funds to cash out, and then a market rally to allow the Funds to sell into it.

Then the top has come, and another plunge begins. This would be the mother of all plunge. S&P would be into 1100 territory.

FED would have to start to cut again, and Euro return to test 1.6000.

It is all too familiar.

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Gold broke 890

at 8:55 am ET, Gold finally broke 890. should bring it down to retest 850 very soon.
let say a 50 USD drop within a day or two.

WTI crude still holding at 129. Would crude takes the hint ?

Soon EURUSD may be breaking down again towards 1.5400.

US Treasury has finally shown its hands............

Now US has lost its authority to accuse China of manipulating currencies.

Hence we may see CNY weakening going forth. The reverse of the ever rising RMB has finally begun.

Today 29 May marks a turning point in USD history. It has lost its legitmacy as a World Reserve Currency, as it is no longer a stable FREE FLOATING currency.

29 May USDJPY to challenge 106

USDJPY carry trader trying to make a breakout.

Not an opportune time for Carry Trade to resume, when bank risks are worsening, property prices dropping. Hence USDJPY should not rise much further. 106 should be the cap.

Month ago, in my blog, I mentioned that Banks like HSBC was offering Euro deposit at 4.25% interest p.a. for a 2 months fixed deposit.

Imagine how can they possibly make monies when ECB rate is at 4% ?

Obviously the Banks entice the masses to buy Euro and then they sell Euro into the market, and make the difference when Euro weakens. The Banks are confident of that b'cos after the Washington IMF World Bank meetings, there seem to be a consensus among institutions or Central Banks to allow a stronger Dollar to stall inflation.

However never did they then foreseen Oil to rise above 120-125.

Hence the 1.5800 upto 1.6000 level is heavily defended, as a lot of Institutions Long positions with stops at that levels.

However, it also means there is a Crown Jewel out there for the taking. Whoever can
push it through 1.5900 to 1.6000, has a lot to gain, both in Forex and Equities.

Hence, who would be the Black Knight ?

Shall I call for battle to push Euro to 1.6000, if yes, pls click on the Google Ads.

22 May Euro rose as expected

IFO rekindle the passion in Euro. Would it return to 1.6000, the answer is in my subscription.

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21 May BEAR TRAP ?

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19 May It was a bull trap as I forecasted

indeed Bull trap. those who follow my chart, would have got 100 pips instead. A bit tricky though as there was a pike up 1.9630 to clear stops.

Earning quick pips is easy. If you are trading big time, you better subscribe to my letter to hedge your risks.

At least, you know you are trading in the right direction. How many pips you get, is a matter of practice and skills.

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19 May China Earthquake

On the last Monday, when I last wrote, China had its largest Earthquake in history, on a Richter scale of 8.0 . Towns and villages were lost. Massive river get cut off from colliding mountains.

Hundred thousands were either lost or missing.

Hence today, at Monday Easter Time 2:28 am, I annouce 3 minutes of trading halt to mourn the dead. And if you are willing and able, contact your nearest RED CROSS and donate for the cause.

TRADING WISE
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believe it is a bull trap, with distribution on Monday/Tuesday. Gold broke 900 but should fall back again, while Oil may make a large fall towards 100, one more time, before a substantial rise to 150.
Same for Euro to drop again, by no means the end of the long march.

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