Currencies hardly move post Thanxgiving. in tight ranges. the longer it is in range, the more explosive the burst.
The million dollar question is if it is up or down.
Friday, November 28, 2008
28 Nov Post Thanxgiving
Currencies hardly move post Thanxgiving. in tight ranges. the longer it is in range, the more explosive the burst.
The million dollar question is if it is up or down.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
27 Nov Thanxgiving
Let see what the market throw at us on this Thanxgiving Day.
Meredith Whitney was out on national TV before US market open, throwing cold water on Banks, Citi, etc.
Meredith is a well listened to figure, especially since she called for Dividends Cut at Citi when its share price was still at 50.
However, has the market made a significant low ? The traders are still piling into short selling if not waiting to short sell.
Some how the low would be retested at some point in the future.
See if Euro can break 1.3300 convincingly pre and post Thanxgiving. Now at 1.2919.
Meredith Whitney was out on national TV before US market open, throwing cold water on Banks, Citi, etc.
Meredith is a well listened to figure, especially since she called for Dividends Cut at Citi when its share price was still at 50.
However, has the market made a significant low ? The traders are still piling into short selling if not waiting to short sell.
Some how the low would be retested at some point in the future.
See if Euro can break 1.3300 convincingly pre and post Thanxgiving. Now at 1.2919.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
22 Nov Citi never sleeps
Citibank may just goes to Zero next week. A bank with 2 Trillion Dollar assets, with more capital than current debt level warrants. Why ?
It is all political and racism.
Viky himself is not a white, and there are power struggle within the organisation to replace him. There are lots to aspire to CEO position of a company with global reach and 2 Trillion Dollars in assets. One would not exclude the possibility of a Citi insider collabrating with Hedge Funds to drive Viky to his knees.
Citi is one of the most global company in US. It has more branches in Asia than any other US banks, namly BoA, JP Morgan. Its executives in Asia are the brightest brains in the society. And its business model covers all aspects of consumer banking needs, car financing, home loans, wealth management, etc. 2 days ago, I was just contacted by Citi sales to renew my car insurance, and was handed a pocket book size Citi calender for 2009 on a busy street. Only HSBC has as a global reach as Citi, and HSBC is only half as agressive.
A bankrupt Citibank has immense ramificaitons on the local banking scene in those Asia countries, it may precipitate bank run on other banks.
Citi has some prominant backers, namly the Prince Allweep, Dubai investment and the Singpure government investment arm Temaseek.
Citi, has long been the target of hedge funds in their hunt. As all of us know by now, Hedge Funds purchase CDS on the target, drive the prices higher, to precipitate a fall in stocks, then higher CDS, cascading into an avalanche.
Talks on caging this CDS monster has not been forthcoming. Viky has been asking for a reinstatement of the Uptick Rule, it has not happened.
Hence it is all political. Never forgetting that Hanky has been a trader. His traits of switching out of the backing of mortgages is refletive of trader behaviour. His original intention of 700B fund was to shock the market, however the effect was lost when Congress stall it.
The entire US financial market is mired in a web of politics, lobbying and self interests.
At the recent G20, China has hinted at a diversification from the US currency, while acknowledging that it itself is very much at stake.
Back to Citi, it is little semblance that the more international companies like AIG and Citi with good Asian assets becomming the prey. If they have nothing good, the vultures would have pass it off.
Now is time for Geithner to show his prowess again, and establish his credibility by leveraging on an joint international effort to shock the short sellers away.
It is time to enact the Patriotism Act to restore order. Such financial terrorism is even more severe than the criminal act of terrorist. Short selling funds taking advantage of the bad economy to sow the seeds of fear.
The obstacle to retoring the market is to identify the insiders in the establishment with short selling interest. Afterall, the market is made out of human, not God.
I propose:
(a) Restoring the uptick rule with immediate effect when market opens on Monday
(b) Reaffirming the intent to regulate the CDS market with a planned exchange starting in early 2009, and full disclosures of CDS by all participants with immediate effect
(c) Treausry to resume purchasing bad mortgages on a case-by-case basis, with Citibank as the first candidate. Rid it of all the bad mortgages.
(d) Treasury to rally international SWF to establish a fund to buy failing bank assets. (as what the Swiss government did with UBS).
(e) Expand FBI and FED power to investigage collusion of company insiders with short selling Hedge Funds.
As for the Autos, I propose:
(a) Merging Chrysler into General Motor.
(b) Negotiate with the Unions to retire 20% of the workforce.
(c) Selling overseas plants to Japanese car makers.
(d) Government to guarantee bonds issues by the Auto companies
(e) All Auto top execs to step down
In no means I am offering myself as the next Treasury Undersectreary for financial markets. Thank you.
It is all political and racism.
Viky himself is not a white, and there are power struggle within the organisation to replace him. There are lots to aspire to CEO position of a company with global reach and 2 Trillion Dollars in assets. One would not exclude the possibility of a Citi insider collabrating with Hedge Funds to drive Viky to his knees.
Citi is one of the most global company in US. It has more branches in Asia than any other US banks, namly BoA, JP Morgan. Its executives in Asia are the brightest brains in the society. And its business model covers all aspects of consumer banking needs, car financing, home loans, wealth management, etc. 2 days ago, I was just contacted by Citi sales to renew my car insurance, and was handed a pocket book size Citi calender for 2009 on a busy street. Only HSBC has as a global reach as Citi, and HSBC is only half as agressive.
A bankrupt Citibank has immense ramificaitons on the local banking scene in those Asia countries, it may precipitate bank run on other banks.
Citi has some prominant backers, namly the Prince Allweep, Dubai investment and the Singpure government investment arm Temaseek.
Citi, has long been the target of hedge funds in their hunt. As all of us know by now, Hedge Funds purchase CDS on the target, drive the prices higher, to precipitate a fall in stocks, then higher CDS, cascading into an avalanche.
Talks on caging this CDS monster has not been forthcoming. Viky has been asking for a reinstatement of the Uptick Rule, it has not happened.
Hence it is all political. Never forgetting that Hanky has been a trader. His traits of switching out of the backing of mortgages is refletive of trader behaviour. His original intention of 700B fund was to shock the market, however the effect was lost when Congress stall it.
The entire US financial market is mired in a web of politics, lobbying and self interests.
At the recent G20, China has hinted at a diversification from the US currency, while acknowledging that it itself is very much at stake.
Back to Citi, it is little semblance that the more international companies like AIG and Citi with good Asian assets becomming the prey. If they have nothing good, the vultures would have pass it off.
Now is time for Geithner to show his prowess again, and establish his credibility by leveraging on an joint international effort to shock the short sellers away.
It is time to enact the Patriotism Act to restore order. Such financial terrorism is even more severe than the criminal act of terrorist. Short selling funds taking advantage of the bad economy to sow the seeds of fear.
The obstacle to retoring the market is to identify the insiders in the establishment with short selling interest. Afterall, the market is made out of human, not God.
I propose:
(a) Restoring the uptick rule with immediate effect when market opens on Monday
(b) Reaffirming the intent to regulate the CDS market with a planned exchange starting in early 2009, and full disclosures of CDS by all participants with immediate effect
(c) Treausry to resume purchasing bad mortgages on a case-by-case basis, with Citibank as the first candidate. Rid it of all the bad mortgages.
(d) Treasury to rally international SWF to establish a fund to buy failing bank assets. (as what the Swiss government did with UBS).
(e) Expand FBI and FED power to investigage collusion of company insiders with short selling Hedge Funds.
As for the Autos, I propose:
(a) Merging Chrysler into General Motor.
(b) Negotiate with the Unions to retire 20% of the workforce.
(c) Selling overseas plants to Japanese car makers.
(d) Government to guarantee bonds issues by the Auto companies
(e) All Auto top execs to step down
In no means I am offering myself as the next Treasury Undersectreary for financial markets. Thank you.
Monday, November 17, 2008
17 Nov G20 Disappoints
this Asia morning, Nikkei falls lower and then rises. This week should be a ranging week. same for currencies.
I am watching Thanxgiving.
Here we have our first Celestial signs: the RED SUN. The Sun smoked by the California fire. Lots of California rich can now claim home insurance. Better than foreclosures.
Now waiting for a EarthQuake (shattering one) and a Fallen Star.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Nov 16 Outcome of G20 -> None
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081116/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_summit
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE4AD7AK20081115
It is definitely short of the Bretton Woods. Bush seizing every opportunity to speak, trying to reassert US dominance.
The next meeting would be in London in April. Then Obama would face Gordon Brown.
Market would probably be ranging in the beginning of next week, then conitinue its downward probe, or so called Break out of Range, with USD Index testing 90 end of next week, if not next week around Thanxgiving.
Just read the Financial Times, one FT writer wrote that once this recession fades off, steep inflation would return, especially Commodities.
Have been reading lately, quite a lot of bullish views on Commodities. Personally think Commodities is a good buy, as supply is limited. However it is a matter of the price level.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE4AD7AK20081115
It is definitely short of the Bretton Woods. Bush seizing every opportunity to speak, trying to reassert US dominance.
The next meeting would be in London in April. Then Obama would face Gordon Brown.
Market would probably be ranging in the beginning of next week, then conitinue its downward probe, or so called Break out of Range, with USD Index testing 90 end of next week, if not next week around Thanxgiving.
Just read the Financial Times, one FT writer wrote that once this recession fades off, steep inflation would return, especially Commodities.
Have been reading lately, quite a lot of bullish views on Commodities. Personally think Commodities is a good buy, as supply is limited. However it is a matter of the price level.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
15 Nov G20 ongoing
just before G20, SPX made a new low on Thursday, though Dow did not. It remains to be seen if the rally can be sustained.
doubt is there is any immediate forex reaction post G20.
Point to note is the coming Thanxgiving on Nov 27. 8 more days of trading. Which direction ? USD more strength ? or end of journey ?
Million Dollars quesiton no doubt.
The Asian countries, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, China are coming together to increase monetary collaboration, may be some monetary alliance via the Asia Development Bank. May be in anticipation of next bout of Asian currencies weakness. The emerging economies are next target of insitutions selling.
From chart above, done on Friday early morning, it shows EURUSD failing before the downtrend line. Indeed Friday it closed lower from peak. It closed the week at 1.2605. If EURUSD cannot make a decisive move below 1.2400, it may wait till Thanxgiving before making a dash towards 1.2000.
Before the G20, White House spokeswoman said that US is more concerned on finding the cause of the current crisis than the solution. Everybody knows US is the problem itself.
Now Congressman blasting Treasury Kashkiri for flip-flopping on the use of monies on saving mortgage owners. More confusion in congress, more confusion in the market, more strength to the DOLLAR.
Iran planning to meet with Russia in Cairo on Nov 29 to engineer some output cuts.
Once the market stabilises, the DOLLAR is doomed, by meanwhile it is on steroids.
The much awaited bottom of the stock market is coming. The world would watch in awe. However am waiting for some celestials signs.
Incidentally, South Californians have been drilling for earthquake.
The divine would gives its signal when Enough is Enough.
By the way, all these selling in stocks are all manipulation by Hedge Funds and Institutions. Nothing is random.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
G20 Bretton Wood II
A historic event is brewing. Just as Obama elect is a historic event in American history.
Rumours abound such as IMF shifting to Asia. HK, Singapore and Shanghai would be likely candidates. For China to invest in IMF, that leaves HK as the only candidate.
As for the fate of USD, unfortunately, the current spate of USD rally is more of risk aversion rather than fundamental strength.
Whatever comes out of G20 would be disadvantageous to USD, it is just a matter of severity.
Essentially G20 can acknowledge the importance of Euro as an alternate currency to USD as reserve, and encourage China to internationalise it RMB.
With another round of USD weakness, US exports may just save the economy again together with fiscal stimulus.
The world by no means is staging a recovery, but a bottom is put in place. Hence it would take a while for the next stock market plunge to come. Probably in May, months after Obama takes office and its mystic fades.
Having said this, do expect a spike in USD after the G20. (as usual to flush out the Euro longs).
Rumours abound such as IMF shifting to Asia. HK, Singapore and Shanghai would be likely candidates. For China to invest in IMF, that leaves HK as the only candidate.
As for the fate of USD, unfortunately, the current spate of USD rally is more of risk aversion rather than fundamental strength.
Whatever comes out of G20 would be disadvantageous to USD, it is just a matter of severity.
Essentially G20 can acknowledge the importance of Euro as an alternate currency to USD as reserve, and encourage China to internationalise it RMB.
With another round of USD weakness, US exports may just save the economy again together with fiscal stimulus.
The world by no means is staging a recovery, but a bottom is put in place. Hence it would take a while for the next stock market plunge to come. Probably in May, months after Obama takes office and its mystic fades.
Having said this, do expect a spike in USD after the G20. (as usual to flush out the Euro longs).
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