31 March Bull or Bear

is this a short pull back for another leg up ? or we have seen the top at 833, and now heading down towards 760 ?

2nd April we would probably get the answer. May be it hit 815 and turn down, if not break 833 to hit a new high, e.g. 850 before turning down to retest March 6 low.

Conventional wisdom has it that 50% retracement at 750 would be tested before another leg of the rally. I.e. Traders believe the current rally has not ended.

However in view of GM bankruptcy overhanging, John Mack's outlook, uncertainty over FFIP. Fed stress test at end of April. And of course G20 outcome. Uncertainty is for sure.

22 March Citigroup

for the price of subscription, imagine how much you would have made with buying Citigroup at 1.07 and sold it at 3.50, the high was 3.89.
the return based on my recommendations was 350%. For 1000 USD, you made 2500 USD.

On 23 Feb, I already projected a target of 1.07 (the low was 0.97). and then I made a price target of 3.5 once I bought at 1 to 1.10.

20 Mar Euro

I felt duti bound to update with the Euro chart. This is taken yesterday, with the TD count at 9. Today is 10. Compared to the previous test to 1.4700, Euro may have topped out today, especially today is Friday. less than 2 more weeks to ECB meeting. Better to take profit, and plan for next time.

That also means Equities may have topped out at 803. most people were looking for 805 to 860.
How far down it goes it a big question, would it retest 700 ? or 666 ? or may be even 500. My subscribers would be updated accordingly.

Citigroup names its CFO as its Chairman. It is kind of boring.

14 March Battle with Satan

can one really trade with Satan ? If Satan has left its mark, do you have the faith to exorcise ?

Judgement day would come, and the divine revelation would be left with my subscribers.

13 March SPX 666

Strong undercurrents happening in US, after months of seemingly futile effort to stem the crisis.

http://www.carolinajournal.com/exclusives/dems-target-private-retirement-accounts.html

This bottom at SPX=666, has greater significance than most people realised. It may be the onset of the next Bubble.

Obama is aware, that is why is want to put a stop to this boom bust cycle, as the next boom cycle has just kicked in. With all the liquidity pumped in by all governments, it is going to fuel quite some activities.

SPX at 805-860 would be critical to ascertain if this is just the retest of a massive SPX Head and Shoulder pattern, or the failure of a decade long H&S pattern, with an ensuing rally.

Nonetheless, we are in a Kondratieff Cycle.

12 March space shuttle launching

Thursday at 10 am ET, there would be a House Financial Services subcommittee no the issue of Mark to Market Accounting FASB 157.
However a resolution may not be forth coming, but a clue may ensue, that would show the light.

The FASB 157 was effective Nov 2007, hence the market peak before it. Hence it makes sense that if FASB is to be temporarily suspended, then the market would bottom before it. Or if FASB is to be suspended effective 1 April, and the Uptick Rule to be reinstated in April, we would expect the market to rocket ahead, especially has it has been oversold.

There would be massive short coverings.

If you want to plan and strategise for all these moves in the market, FOREX and Equities, and GOLD/SILVER, you would need to subscribe to my newsletter:

Email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

Take advantage of this once in a life time opportunity to make your retirement nestegg.
Warren Buffet has proven that buy and hold is a failure, and you need to trade this market to earn monies, at least in the next 3 years till 2012.

I use TD indicators, and we can see that EURUSD and CL1 are starting to trend upwards.
There are lots of chatter in the media on Crude, with some saying crude is going to visit 20-30 USD, USDJPY to strengthen again, etc.

Time is about right.

10 March Waiting

Waiting is indeed the word. Those with monies waiting for the capitulation, those made monies waiting to take profit.
Nobody is moving without seeing any capitulation.

Today is 10 March, full moon. Retail Sales is due out this week. Perpahs everybody is hoping for a bad figure.

there is a Congressional hearing on the Financial Standards Oversight Board, in relation to FAS 157.

Funds are anxious to sell down the market, evidence:
(a) maniulating the HSBC shares in HK, trying to stage a market close sell down.
(b) investment houses issuing a spate of negative report/downgrades on some bluechips.
(c) Professors of doom speaking everywhere, from Delhi, HK to California

The fear machine is working overtime indeed.

The conventional wisdom is stay out, stay out of the banks, conserve cash, buy bonds if there is monies left. Waiting for the next bank to be nationalised.

SPX popular target is 640, last was 666, while GE low was 6.66.

OR has the devil carved out a bottom already, while everybody is waiting ? VIX is subdued, essentially people has stayed out buying puts.

Only the day traders are fuelling every rise and fall, following the channel descent or channel pop.

Is there enough fodder for the much awaited pop up or down ?

GOLD trying to move down. However, GOLD may just follow the market and rally in anticipation of future inflation. Either stock up or down, GOLD is going to go up.

In that case, we would get to 1200 sooner than most funds are expecting. In fact they are selling short at 1000.

The future for USD is sealed, when RMB is going into free float. China is now testing international settlement in RMB in Shanghai. RMB itself is a basket of currencies.

While Japan has pledged support to Us treasuries. Hence you see the continous rise if USDJPY.

Hence we would see a situation where Yen is the weakest, followed by USD, and then the stronger currencies would be GBP, EUR and Emerging Asia Economies. We would discount the Eastern Europeans currencies.

We may start to see USD carving out a double top, while the USDJPY carry trade would resume to fuel the next bubble, if not next rally. Going back to good old days.

Now, the bottom in stock is coming, and everyone is waiting.

4 March as expected

Euro retesting 1.2400 soon. though I last forecasted 1.2425. Euro has shown resilience in the face of the Eastern European collapse. If Euro survive this year, it is proven to be the next reserve currency of the world. Then Euro going to 1.7000 or 1.8000 is a matter of time.

First Europe needs to distance itself from Sakorzy influence, the flamboyant leader who is fast losing support in his homecountry. China retract its Airbus orders is a big blow to the French employment. Expect more turmoil in France, as compared to other European members. Its bank Societe Generali and BNP would soon be in the spotlight.

As for Gold, going to retest its up trendline support since this rally. the support is around 870-880. Now spot Gold at 915. May be this would be the last time we see Gold at 800.

Though consumer demand for Gold jewellery has waned, nations demand for Gold is ever increasing, to bolster its urge to print more monies.

In fact, license to mine Gold is probably the most desired commodity in the world in the near future.

As faith currencies soon loses faith with the masses, when BoE and ECB are going into Quantitative Easing.