As of 1 June, I have moved to dollarpro2009.blogspot.com..
I would no longer updating this site.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Sunday, May 31, 2009
31 May Making a Bear Case
GS on ladder.
STI in bullish pennant formation.Note the exceptional volume on last Wednesday 27 May.
HSI reached new height, but the volume is not. The ealier height commanded an exception volume.
Now everywhere is bull. Roubini has now admitted recovery is inplace. Paul Krugman was faster than him. I saw some pennant formation on Equities, Stocks like GS, JPM are on a rising escalator. (literally escalator, you dun need to move your feet). However we all know that the fundamentals are not there. I asked executives of major cooperations, they told me volumes would never go back to 2007 for another 1-2 yrs. Cooperations are going to cut cost, retrench staff to achieve earnings. Consumption would never return to high time. If you know the Japan lost decade and the explanation for it: "Balance Sheet Recession" (Richard Ko of Mizuho). Cooperations are more interested to reduce debt than to achieve profits.
The current abnormally high PE ratio of SPX has no fundamentals.
200 days at 928, easily achievable. ESmini has breached 200 days, not cash. 50 days at 861.
[Chart above: SPX weekly] the unconfirmed low at 666 gave the bull the might case for rally. However the huge histogram with the lower bars give the case for a pullback.
[Chart above SPX monthly] for those who are short the market. Goods news is that the Monthly SPX has confirmed the fall to 666, and another low is in the cards, let say in 1-3 yrs time. Not before a rally. This rally may not be straight up. PERHAPS, with a unconfirmed lower low at 500++, then surge back to 1100-1200. And the final drop 1-2 yrs from now, probably towards end 2010.
[Chart above TNX monthly] This is a bold prediction. 10 Yr Treasury yields to fall back to last low, before rising to new high, a awfully new high. (we all know Inflation is coming).
[Chart above TNX daily] Now comes the 10 year yields. It has been pulling back for 2 days. possible support is the channel lower trendline. Otherwise it may pull back all the way, which has greater significance. Either the yeilds is foretelling another bout of Debt Purchase by FED, or monies fleeing Equities into Bonds.
[Chart above and below Euro] For the EURO junkies, may be it is conincidence that the Euro rise stops at 1.4169, which is the max of W5 <= W3. Monday when Asia opens, we would have the answer. If the current large degree wave is complete (possibly a larger degree wave 3). To be followed by a larger degree w4. And the final larger degree w5, we would have possible 1.4500.
This Euro topping would be a strong case for a Equities pullback. Monday Asia opening would be telling.
After much thoughts as to the nature of this current rally: short squeeze, green shoots, reflation. I found the right word: "LOOTING". The bank executives, government officials are looting the American taxpayers, in return for favours, present and futures.
Would you work for 1 dollar salary like Edward Liddy of AIG ?
Geithner approved Fed NY chairman to purchase GS shares last yr in millions.
A recovering market can take its time, but a market staged by looters are in a hurry before the light comes.
When the market next plunge, it would give us a very good explanation.
Have to admit the odds are against me.
31 May June ? what's up
Coming 5 June may be a key reversal date. Two scenarios:
(A) we drop like a stone on Monday after ISM, especially after the spike on Friday closing trade. ES mini reach 927. Cash SPX reached 921.
Accoding to marketticker Daneric, he prefers that it was a last minute Short Squeeze taking out the stops from 915 onwards. And it was some big sell contracts taken out. Obviously some Biggies was positioning for selling.
Would that Big Sell guy comes into reposition shorts ?
If there is a drop, would 50 days 830 hold ?
(B) As the last minute surge has broken some key trendlines, necklines on some indices, e.g. NDX, is it a signal of the new breakout ? that would give the scenario of 5 days of rise towards 930-960
Hong Kong HSI has established new heights, same for Straits Times STI, however most of its component equities have not established new heights.
If scenario (A) takes shape, then we would have 10 years Treasury yeilds backing down. Flee to safety makes Tbills more attractive, prices go up, yields come down. This would be Bernanke preferred sceanrio. However 10 yr Treasury yields ($TNX) has already done the technical damage ( a breakout from a consolidation). How far can yeilds drop ?
Gold, Crude, EURUSD has to rally hard from here onwards, otherwise negative divergence spells trouble.(Higher high not confirmed by MACD).
An entire ship of Swine Flu victims (200 out of thousands) has been unloaded at Brisbane. It is of no worries at this point, bços it is not hign fatal form. However it is awfully infectious, nothing can be done about it. We just need the virus to mutate to a deadly form, then the outcome is known.
North Korea is now planning a long range missle (months ago, the missle fell into the sea prematurely). US has pledged stern action at the Shangrila-Dialogue over the weekend. It has now positioned Raptor fighters in Japan. North Korea nuclear program has Iran roots. Iran having presidential election in June. US is hoping that Admadinejadd would fail.
Crude official target may be 80 as declared by OPEC, OPEC secretary has said that the current rally is because of speculators, sentiments rather than Demand. Speculators would like push to 80 and decide, and we are not that far. With any impending military conflicts, we can easily climb above 100. Then SPX at 1000 would seem elusive.
Monday Asia would open strong to suck in more monies. Then ISM(May) would sway the actions.
GM
---
News has it "GM announced Friday that it will build a future small car in the U.S. at an idled UAW-GM facility, which it will retool."
why would American need small cars ? Italian needs small cars bços their cities are old and streets are narrow. Imagine a sub-powered small car on America vast and sprawling highways. Another scheme to cheat Tax Payer monies. Fritz Henderson can go down in history as in cahoots of the leagues of cheaters like Geithner and Bernanke.
GM shares reached a low of 72 cents. There were quite some buyers at 1 dollar, hoping that the Bankruptcy bid would fail. now there are at 30% loss.
GM wants to stop those small cars imports from China/Korea. They think they can make cheaper. Look at what India tata is selling Nano at only thousand USD.
GM would continue to be a drag on US economies, and sap the Treasuries of monies. Last heard another 30 billions on the tap for the new GM. All in the name of protecting American Autoworkers. BTW, bços of dealerships cuts, lot of pple would go unemployed as well as the Suppliers.
(A) we drop like a stone on Monday after ISM, especially after the spike on Friday closing trade. ES mini reach 927. Cash SPX reached 921.
Accoding to marketticker Daneric, he prefers that it was a last minute Short Squeeze taking out the stops from 915 onwards. And it was some big sell contracts taken out. Obviously some Biggies was positioning for selling.
Would that Big Sell guy comes into reposition shorts ?
If there is a drop, would 50 days 830 hold ?
(B) As the last minute surge has broken some key trendlines, necklines on some indices, e.g. NDX, is it a signal of the new breakout ? that would give the scenario of 5 days of rise towards 930-960
Hong Kong HSI has established new heights, same for Straits Times STI, however most of its component equities have not established new heights.
If scenario (A) takes shape, then we would have 10 years Treasury yeilds backing down. Flee to safety makes Tbills more attractive, prices go up, yields come down. This would be Bernanke preferred sceanrio. However 10 yr Treasury yields ($TNX) has already done the technical damage ( a breakout from a consolidation). How far can yeilds drop ?
Gold, Crude, EURUSD has to rally hard from here onwards, otherwise negative divergence spells trouble.(Higher high not confirmed by MACD).
An entire ship of Swine Flu victims (200 out of thousands) has been unloaded at Brisbane. It is of no worries at this point, bços it is not hign fatal form. However it is awfully infectious, nothing can be done about it. We just need the virus to mutate to a deadly form, then the outcome is known.
North Korea is now planning a long range missle (months ago, the missle fell into the sea prematurely). US has pledged stern action at the Shangrila-Dialogue over the weekend. It has now positioned Raptor fighters in Japan. North Korea nuclear program has Iran roots. Iran having presidential election in June. US is hoping that Admadinejadd would fail.
Crude official target may be 80 as declared by OPEC, OPEC secretary has said that the current rally is because of speculators, sentiments rather than Demand. Speculators would like push to 80 and decide, and we are not that far. With any impending military conflicts, we can easily climb above 100. Then SPX at 1000 would seem elusive.
Monday Asia would open strong to suck in more monies. Then ISM(May) would sway the actions.
GM
---
News has it "GM announced Friday that it will build a future small car in the U.S. at an idled UAW-GM facility, which it will retool."
why would American need small cars ? Italian needs small cars bços their cities are old and streets are narrow. Imagine a sub-powered small car on America vast and sprawling highways. Another scheme to cheat Tax Payer monies. Fritz Henderson can go down in history as in cahoots of the leagues of cheaters like Geithner and Bernanke.
GM shares reached a low of 72 cents. There were quite some buyers at 1 dollar, hoping that the Bankruptcy bid would fail. now there are at 30% loss.
GM wants to stop those small cars imports from China/Korea. They think they can make cheaper. Look at what India tata is selling Nano at only thousand USD.
GM would continue to be a drag on US economies, and sap the Treasuries of monies. Last heard another 30 billions on the tap for the new GM. All in the name of protecting American Autoworkers. BTW, bços of dealerships cuts, lot of pple would go unemployed as well as the Suppliers.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
30 May Crude to 66.6
Is it not errie that Crude has now reached 66.6, like SPX reached 666.
Was yesterday 29 May the point of inflextion, where Equities would plunge, and Crude turns lower ?
Now the market is bullish everywhere.
Was yesterday 29 May the point of inflextion, where Equities would plunge, and Crude turns lower ?
Now the market is bullish everywhere.
30 May sideway Equities and roaring Commodities
still having my QQQQ selling at 38 GTC. If there is a sell off next week, think 880-890 would hold for a buy. Douglas Kass has said this is a sideway market. It frustrates those johnly come lately Long and the permabear Shorts. Bernanke proviging a floor at 880, while those who long last year provide the ceiling. When the selling has receded the next big leg up would begin. as everyone is looking at 200days 935, think another short covering there would happen.
The market would dip when there is the slightest hint that Fed would have to hike rate. Crude would goto 80 and beyond, and consumers would start feeling the pinch, Gold probably over 1000 by then, EurUSD towards 1.5000.
The Big Whales have shifted their monies away from Equities to Commodities and Emerging Markets where monies are made faster and easier. Leaving we, EW traders, trying to guess every waves, calling every top.
In the end, does calling the right waves really make monies ? A lot of the punters out there dun even read news or know Elliot. They just buy on dips and sell rallies. Like buying the 888 on Thursday and selling at Friday close at 910.
The long term is still a bear markets, unfortunately most traders are still hounded in the short selling mode. Perhaps EW traders should divert their resources to EURUSD, Gold, Silver etc where the uptrend is clear inplace and target is clear
The market would dip when there is the slightest hint that Fed would have to hike rate. Crude would goto 80 and beyond, and consumers would start feeling the pinch, Gold probably over 1000 by then, EurUSD towards 1.5000.
The Big Whales have shifted their monies away from Equities to Commodities and Emerging Markets where monies are made faster and easier. Leaving we, EW traders, trying to guess every waves, calling every top.
In the end, does calling the right waves really make monies ? A lot of the punters out there dun even read news or know Elliot. They just buy on dips and sell rallies. Like buying the 888 on Thursday and selling at Friday close at 910.
The long term is still a bear markets, unfortunately most traders are still hounded in the short selling mode. Perhaps EW traders should divert their resources to EURUSD, Gold, Silver etc where the uptrend is clear inplace and target is clear
Friday, May 29, 2009
29 May GDP
Asia open holding up well. Asia is front running the US market. until we see a flip on Asia, otherwise do not expect anything dramatic on SPX. Cramer was right, if Oil, commodities are rallying, and Financials holding, SPX would continue to rally. Still SPX has unfinished business at the 200days mov avg.
As Geithner is in China 1-2 June, expect a good rally towards 930-940 coming Friday, next Monday to Tuesday. 200 days may be broken and SPX hug the 200 days for another month.
As crude official target allowed by OPEC is 80, expect Crude to inch towards 80. that would bring Euro towards 1.5000 and Gold breaking 1000.
The trigger may be the GDP today.
think the market is not going to give those who short Euro any breathing space, like those who shorted SPX. Euro is going to 1.5000.
BoA Meryll Lunch analyst Tenengauzer says on Bloomberg Euro would goto 1.200 by September, now Euro at 1.4100. seems like quite a lot of pple caught shorting Euro.
As Geithner is in China 1-2 June, expect a good rally towards 930-940 coming Friday, next Monday to Tuesday. 200 days may be broken and SPX hug the 200 days for another month.
As crude official target allowed by OPEC is 80, expect Crude to inch towards 80. that would bring Euro towards 1.5000 and Gold breaking 1000.
The trigger may be the GDP today.
think the market is not going to give those who short Euro any breathing space, like those who shorted SPX. Euro is going to 1.5000.
BoA Meryll Lunch analyst Tenengauzer says on Bloomberg Euro would goto 1.200 by September, now Euro at 1.4100. seems like quite a lot of pple caught shorting Euro.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
28 May Sell in May
GM last minute ask for more monies from the German government for selling Opel.
money grubbing americans sharing the same DNA as Geithner, Bernanke. Pulling out last minutes demands.
In Asia we have China companies listed in Singapore cooking their books, REITS offering rights issue, companies founders selling into the rallies.
The BEAST is now roaming WallStreet, reaping the souls.
The market dynamics has been the big whales taking profits from the Equities and buying up commodities, crude and gold.
EURUSD seems to have reached its short term peak at 1.4050, while Crude may be completing its at 65.
As the saying goes "Sell in May", it says sell in the whole month of May. And we do see Stock Equities literally stand still at the top and allows the whales to sell into it. Amazing.
It would be interesting to see what happens after Geithner finishes his China trip. Would he play the same tricks and demand more at last minute, which is what GM is literally asking the German government for more monies.
The Isreali is not yielding to Obama. Neither is the North Korean. The US government is significantly weaker than before.
There was a Chinese professor, a renowned figure as the head of public policy institute in Singapore, who claims that the status of USD is unshakeable, bços US has the finest weapons, most consumers, etc.
If US is so great, then it should have done better at Iraq, or the credit crisis would not have happened before. This goes to show that there are still hard core USD fans out there.
I dun know what is so great about US Tech companies, when companies are cutting down IT expenses. Even Microsoft itself is reining in its expenditure on IT and operations. Perhaps it allows its founders, owners, executives to cash out at higher level.
IT is money grabbing mania, at the expense of middleclass who believed that the Green Sprout would bear flowers.
The "Green Sprout" talk would continue to haunt Bernanke and Geithner next yr.
Incidentally, Geithner is always in intervals of a few days, talking up the economy, the banks. And it really sounds fishy.
money grubbing americans sharing the same DNA as Geithner, Bernanke. Pulling out last minutes demands.
In Asia we have China companies listed in Singapore cooking their books, REITS offering rights issue, companies founders selling into the rallies.
The BEAST is now roaming WallStreet, reaping the souls.
The market dynamics has been the big whales taking profits from the Equities and buying up commodities, crude and gold.
EURUSD seems to have reached its short term peak at 1.4050, while Crude may be completing its at 65.
As the saying goes "Sell in May", it says sell in the whole month of May. And we do see Stock Equities literally stand still at the top and allows the whales to sell into it. Amazing.
It would be interesting to see what happens after Geithner finishes his China trip. Would he play the same tricks and demand more at last minute, which is what GM is literally asking the German government for more monies.
The Isreali is not yielding to Obama. Neither is the North Korean. The US government is significantly weaker than before.
There was a Chinese professor, a renowned figure as the head of public policy institute in Singapore, who claims that the status of USD is unshakeable, bços US has the finest weapons, most consumers, etc.
If US is so great, then it should have done better at Iraq, or the credit crisis would not have happened before. This goes to show that there are still hard core USD fans out there.
I dun know what is so great about US Tech companies, when companies are cutting down IT expenses. Even Microsoft itself is reining in its expenditure on IT and operations. Perhaps it allows its founders, owners, executives to cash out at higher level.
IT is money grabbing mania, at the expense of middleclass who believed that the Green Sprout would bear flowers.
The "Green Sprout" talk would continue to haunt Bernanke and Geithner next yr.
Incidentally, Geithner is always in intervals of a few days, talking up the economy, the banks. And it really sounds fishy.
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