31 Mar Paulson and China Opera

The market is waiting on Paulson speech today, and then his visit to China tomorrow.

I was watching a China Phoenix channel program on the subprime crisis with the speaker from Goldman Sachs China.

The interviewer broached the topic of Conspiracy Theory, FED itself is a private corporation with the few families as major stakeholders.

Conspiracy One is that the current crisis is planned and orchestrated by some parties who are gaining by shorting the market beforehand.

Conspiracy Two is the China CITIC deal to buy Bear Sterns was a ploy by the US government to suck in the China funds. The approval process for the China investment was extremely speedy. Same goes for BlackRock.

AND Wen JiaBao, the Prime Minister of China was vocal about his concern on the weakening USD and weak economy of US. It sounds as if like it is US fault for staging the crisis and weak economy.

Now, Wu Yi has stepped down from her role in the Strategic Dialogue, with a new person who may not dance Tango with Paulson.

Hence, the future directions of China investment is obvious. Without anymore China suckers, the opera show of US stock market drop has to end.

The Sovereign Wealth Funds are probably exhausted. If they have to buy, they have to sell some where.

The curtain have to fall on the subprime opera, by no means subprime crisis is over. At least it would be played backstage.

The American would find itself alone on the stage if it is going to put up the show any longer.

As I have said long ago, las yr, the SUBPRIME is a hoax. A Hoax that eventually lead to some power shift in the US financial governance, and a seemingly OmniPotence FED. Would Hank Paulson be the next FED Chairman ?

IF GBP is going lower further, Sakorzy might as well buy over the Buckingham Palace and the Queens crown jewel. May be Carla Bruni would be the Queen of Anglo-Saxon.
That is another Conspiracy Theory there, forcing the British to drop the Pound and adopt Euro.

29 Mar Euro supremecy with Carla Bruni

no wonder, Euro is so desirable and well coveted. Even Gordon's kness are weak.
So does sterling weak in the face of beauty.

Would Euro reach Ectasy ? after the "FLAT" performance this week.

27 Mar Let me show the way....

market hit 1.5350 and then up to 1.5850 as in previous charts.

Let me give some direction to the market, as it seems lost without my guidance.

everybody trade according to the chart, ok.

if you made monies, click on the Google link at the top.

25 Mar target reached

those who made monies from this chart, pls click on the Google link to the right.

24 Mar Target reached

for those who followed, target reached. almost 500 pips of gain since 18 March todate.
if you made monies from this call, click on the Google Advert on the right.

Update 10:40 am
---------------
the Stock market rallying as said in my earlier post. It would goes higher, till people thought a bull rally is coming back.

I got a good response on the Clicks. Seems like quite a lot of you has made monies from my Chart.

now, I am not expecting it to shoot up like in the chart. A period of consolidation would happen for like 1-2 weeks.

The longer the consolidation, the more powerful move later.

If you want guidance to climb the Mount Everest, do email me for subscription:
dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

22 Mar Home Foreclosure

Rubin ask for Public funds to be use to save home foreclosure. This would entice more foreclosures. What was a 5% blacksheep in all the total mortgage population would rise to let say 10 to 20%.

Why should one work so hard for the home, if one can get away scotfree with the help of public funds.

The printing presses are running throughout days and nights. Why dun we just print one side of the dollar note.

The Taiwan Ma Ying Jeou won the election. That would relieve cross strait tensions in coming month. This shold propel the Asia markets higher, and if SPX follows, there are substantional short covering to happen next week. We may have a bullish close on the month.

As for the commodity story. The fundamental picture never change. It was rumoured that FED forces Banks to up margins on the Commodity funds. This triggered the avalanche Taking Profit.

IT seems that everybody in the streets know where Gold is heading to. In fact when Gold was still at 600 to 700, everybody was eagerly to buy the dips to the 200 day moving average. And mind you, it was hell of a waiting.

The national TV hardly talked about Silver, and now we hear them talking about Silver. and people writes that there are no more Silver on the streets.

Next week would be interested.

21 Mar Friday Easter. PPT won. DaLai Lama. Iran

In September 2007, I have already told my subscribers about 1019 GOLD. It exceeded
to 1033. Now I am pondering on the possible scenario, since 1019 was exceeded.

What a week. you have witnessed the forces of the PPT (Plunge Protection Team). The plan was hatched last weekend.

Essentially, it involves investigation into shady deals, e.g. the rumour mongers for Bear Sterns, selling GOLD.

In case the PPT does not work, the other tool would be Capital Control, the tool of last resort. Would seizing all the ETF Gold be a possible instrument ? I dun know.

In terms of holding Gold, physical Gold Bullion is still the best.

(I hope I dun trigger the avalanche of ETF Gold selling on Monday, hahahaah).

Next, we should see the Equities rally like another Bull market is in the making. there are fundamentals for that, b'cos the FED is reflating the bubble.

Would FED stop at 2.25% ? People would seem to think so, soon. with more talks of FED has done enough. Then story of a USD rebound would surface. Champagne bottles open when the Cheques are sent out.

Oil would then be heading back to 90 if not 80. Gold back to 700. EURUSD to 1.4000.

Inflation is tame. Housing picking up. Foreclosure down.

Then people woke up on a Summer morning, thinking that the subprime was just a passing.

The Republican McCain may just have a chance of winning the election.

The Taiwaneese moderate Ma Yin Jiu wins the election. And China and Asia markets cheer.

Now Gates is thinking of slowing down the troops withdrawal in Iraq, beefing up troops in Afganistan. Russia relenting on the missle defence. When the economy improves, US can do more overseas.

AND may be Iran would give up its nuclear program, who knows.

Yes, we are in the eye of the Storm in the next couple of months.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DaLai Lama

The Tibet situation is essentially a riot by the Tibetan against the Chinese, b'cos of poor job prospects, high food prices, low income. It has nothing to do with religion.

The Tibetian mob rode into town, burn people alive, raiding the Banks. They are essentially criminals. All China did was to arrest the criminals. It is just like the LA police supressing the rioters years ago. (interestingly, we have not seen any US riots so far, on rising gasoline, food, jobless, etc)

And some political figures are trying to exploit the situation. Like Gordon Brown, Kevin Reed, Pelosi and even the ruling Taiwanese democratic party.

Dalai Lama, himself, is trying to attribute something he did not started to himself, and he has no control, nor influence over the Tibetan mob.

I am pretty sure a true Buddhist would not want to see bloodshed. Buddhism is known for its peaceful methods.

However things are escalating, with Pelosi going to meet Dalai Lama in India soon.

The China central government should instead relook at how it has treated its subjects, the Tibetans.

This is an example of how high food prices, inflation is going to inflame riots, religious conflicts worldwide. This week, Korea annouces to impose price restriction on food staples.

Did the PPT manage to turn back Inflation with one week of action ? Can it lead the world to believe Inflation is defeated with captialist market intervention ? Does US has any more rights to accuse China of currency manipulation ?

As for China, it should realise that all the fanfare on the Strategic Dialogue between China and US for last years (between Wu Yi and Paulson), had made China a loser. In terms of the Blackstone purchase, and its diminishing worth of US Treasuries. It was a stalling tactics by Paulson. China communist is a loser when it comes to the capitalise game.

Instead, China should now double quick, using the current USD rebound, switch its US reserves out into other G7 currencies. Otherwise, President Hu JinTou may oneday kneel infront of Pelosi. (interestingly, EUR held 1.5400 exceedingly well, I had forecasted a run towards 1.5300)

If the Taiwan Xie win in tomorrow Taiwan election, we would have a meltdown in Asia market on Monday with the rising spectre of war across the straits.

Now with Osama re-emerging, threatening Europe.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
IRAN
Convservative Iranian won in the recent election, i.e. Admadinejeed would have a free hand in his nuclear program.
The Iraqs are warming up to the Iranians.
The Admiral of US Central Command recently stepped down, rumoured that he opposes to Gates plan on Iraq and Iran.
Cheney was in Iraq recently, Rice/Gates were in Russia meeting Putin.
The 3rd Security Council sanction on Iran came and went. Soon the Security Council is going to be a toothless lion.
AND yesterday, Gates say that US would slow down withdrawal, and increase troops in Afghanistan.

My guess is: the Democrats and Republican have reached a consensus that it is better to take out Iran nuclear sites during Bush year than to procrastinate to the the next President.
Moroever, some military activities may just give American a high meanwhile when economy is faltering.

We are going into a chaotic April. US would show hand in April. That explain the urgency of Bush to restrain the rising commodities, and give it a dip.

20 Mar Is that all ?

Those of you who followed this chart which I posted on 18 Dec, would have made quite a bundle. Those who have made monies, pls click on the Google Link on the right.

The million dollar question is whether it would bounce off 1.5350 and aim for 1.6000 ?
If you want the answer, you got to subscribe.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I turned on the TV and was shocked to find a BNP global equity economist saying 30% of the world going into Depression.

Well, I have been talking about Kondratieff Winter privately here. Never expect "Depression" to be talked about openly.

Guess there would be more "D" talk, as Equities starts its next descent.

It tooks weeks for Gold to rise from 900 to 1033. It took only yesterday, Gold fell from 1003 to 930. (915 just a while ago).

Probably April is going to be a month of "Depression".

What are your plans for Easter ?

UPDATE:
-------
Rumours swirling the pits in Europe that there is going to be some coordinated effort by Central Banks to support the Equity Markets. Said to be pushing the commodities down, buying of USD, etc.

One guy from ECU Group says on national TV that the monies would flow back from Commodities into Equitiies.
Good deal, sell my Food (Coffeebeans, soyabeans, wheat, rice) for some paper shares.
Probably, I can munch papaer when I am hungry.

London open, and Gold selling start again.
Selling Gold that they do not hold.

SEC said to be investigating Traders who spread rumours about Bear Stern. As I have written in my previousl post. the "Bear Stern" case is an obvious well planned out deal.

The Subprime, Bank runs are all works of some cartels out there. They would repeat and repeat till the market crawl.

19 Mar Post FOMC

FOMC spark a Gold gapdown with not much follow through so far.

Puru Saxena went on national TV says he has sold all his Gold 2 days ago. Nicole Elliot is going on holiday for the next 2 weeks.

So, seems like we need another Bear Sterns. By elimination, JP Morgan, Goldman, Lehman are out. Who's next for prey for the Vultures ? Well Fargos, Wachovia, Citi, Morgan Stanley ?

Probably the siege on Bear Sterns are planned and executed like clockwork.

The selldown in Euro, Gold are forecasted, it is a matter of how deep.

If you have nothing to do on the coming Easter, do subscribe to my letter:
dollarproaragon@hotmail.com


Anyway, I have ordered a few trucks, am going to swipw my paper monies for Gold. I would truck it from Fort Knox (where the Gold are guarded) to my house in Sausilito.
Just waiting for the right price.

Gold, Silver, GBP in steep drops. soon EUR would join.

Look like the Big Boys are calling it a day on Commodities, Oil, precious metals, Euro after almost 3 months of hard work.
The down may persist till next month April.

If this Treasury orchestrated USD strength works, then credits to the Master Trader Paulson. It takes another Master Trader to beat that,
any volunteers out there ?

Gold, Silver unwinding is going to be ugly. If 1030 is the top, then a 300$ drop is possible. (last time it dropped like a stone form 730 top in May 2006 to 440)

Having said that, it is like BoE selling Gold at 250.

Yipeee !!!!
Thanx, BEN.

10 trucks have just arrived.

18 Mar Brokeback mountain

SPX at 1270 is eventually broken. Asia markets falling like Dominos. The myth of a rebound so anticipated is not to be.
whatever Fed does today, the market is still going south.

Probably the market discounting the economic condition in 3rd to 4th Quarter. I.e. after a brief spell of fiscal stimulus, it did not work, and economy heading into deeper recession.

Hence the Asia economies are facing much slower growth into the year.

2009 would be the darkest of the dark. It is going to be a deeper recession than Katrina or the Internet Bubble, or the Asia Financial crisis.

Hence, it wold be quite interesting to see people going on newspaper, TV toking up the markets or their investments.

With Siemens (the German 100 years brand name) giving earning warnings, ECB would soon switch gear contemplating a cut or two for this yr.

At the end of 2008, we are likely to see FED at 0.75%, ECB at 3.5%, BoE at 4%.

The first to emerge from the recession is UK, then US, lastly Europe.

17 Mar Judgement Day. Revelation.

Update 4:20 am ET
-----------------
if you agree that we are getting the Stock Market plunge today,pls click on the
Google Ads to the right.

The presidential finance working committee is meeting today. IT is definitely not a hush-hush thing. First it is a warning to those FORCES out there, shorting the Stocks, rigging the Commodities.

Under Homeland Security Patriot Act, suspicious players may be hauled up for investigation. Dun be surprised you find some Chavez, Ahmadinejadd, Blood diamonds, Gunrunners, Russian Mafia, China tycoons in the midst.

It is basically a case of "enough is enough" from the parents.

Would we get the proverbial Plunge today ? Would Lehman be next as romoured ? Would Goldman really report additional mega writedowns ? Would FED cut 100bp ?

You want to bet ?

Also China is a worry, with the Tibetan riots pre Olympics. Echoes of dissent against the China Olympics, and most importantly the Taiwan election this weekend.

The forces against the "Beijing Butchers" as how the Democrats call them, would cascade into worldwide marches of protest against the China Olympics especially in Western Cities. Protectionism is at its prime. Little wonder, China is busy selling its Treasuries, and switching out the USD. (1.5000, 1.5500, 1.6000 are all the works of the Chinese). By the way, the Gulf countries have not joined in yet.

Surprise may be on the cards for the Taiwan election.

This week, we would see the Larkans, Vampires, Werewolves roaming the Streets for blood. The Proverbial Judgement Day has come. The DARK FORCE has shown itself.

You would remember it, provided you are not wiped out by this week.

As I have warned before, all the Celestial Signs mentioned in the Revelation has appeared. The recent Red Moon (Lunar eclipse), the Earthquakes, Fallen Star (meteorite shows and the fallen Satellite), and finally the World Population is quiet.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sorry, it was not a few days before the crash, it is today.

Bear Sterns is worth only 2$ despite 70$ a few days ago. Last week S&P say the credit crisis was almost over, and sudenly Bear Stern turns up.

However, the shareholders may not necessary be suffering, as they have hedged it by shorting the markets or their stock.

There is great incentive to push the market lower. Domino effect would bring about others like Citi, Morgan Stanley, Meryll Lynch, Wachovia, UBS, Societe Generale, Lehman, Goldman, JP Morgan, etc.

As for the BoJ debacle, it is deliberate attempt to block any governor nomination, so as to impair BoJ ability to react to the strengthening YEN. The timing of these nomination thing is a suspect, as they have lots of time earlier to sort out the nomination.

Hence the current market crash, is well planned and orchestrated. If it looks frightening, disorderly, it is meant to look that way.

the DARK FORCE is roaming Wallstreet looking for souls.

Bush, Ben and Paul trio are helpless, or pretend to be helpless. As they dun want to offend the unseen, unheard and untouchable.

Only the HEROS can stop the DARK FORCE.

16 Mar few more days before the CRASH

Weeks ago, when USDJPY was at 103, my subscribers have been prepared for the drop below 100, Now I would share it with you (for commercial reasons).

Bush is a straight talker. Probably he changed his mind and he is now convinced that the market shold correct itself, i.e. you would not see the FED around when market breaks SPX 1270 next week.

The wealth is there, but it just get redistributed.

Update:
--------
USDJPY just hit 97, EURUSD now 1.5787.



If you dun want to be rob (or squander away through wrong bets with your trusted broker), do email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for a paid subscription.

now watching a movie "The Secret".

Thoughts become things. The law of attraction will give you what you want. If you think about Debt, you attract more Debts.

If most people think dun want a market crash, a market crash would happen.

There are 3 steps:
Step 1: ASK,
E.g. I ask EURO to goto 1.5000

Step 2: BELIEVE (unwavering faith)
I believe that it wuld be reached.

Step 3: RECEIVE
You need to be feeling. And when you turn your fantasy into fact. You begin to have greater fantasy.

You dun have to know how everything unfolds, just take the first step, subscribe to my letter, and everything would unfold before you.

15 Mar Market Crash next week. Kondratieff Winter is arriving. I hope I am wrong.

A tale of twin cities, the old one and the current one. C is the next one after Bear.

C can easily join LTCM, Amaranth.

Watch this space next week. The market is teethering on collapse. Equities can shave off another 10% from current position.

USDJPY has just dropped below 99. Last low in 1995 was 80. The last high of the consolidation pattern was 148, lower pattern at 125.

Hence we can easily see 75-80 in next few months. If not a 50 is possible. (look at the USDJPY monthly charts for the past 30 years)

Globally, all major banks are liquidating their Real Estate investments to raise capital. With them in unison to short the markets, the Equity markets has a lot more deeper to fall.

Expect banks like "C" to be next inline. A fall to below 10 USD/share is never in doubt, if there are bankdruptcy fears. Worst "C" would cease to exist by June.

Hence EURUSD may reach 2.000. A crisis indeed.

After the crash, the world population would be shaken, and live in cold freeze for the next 10 years.

There would be no decoupling, China would fall alongside. Look at their "A" shares, it is dropping preciptously.

Capital preservation is key.

I have been alway locked up in my lab, studying all markets, all instruments, (hence no able to post). AND I have come to a conclusion.

The last minute fall of USDJPY on Friday afternoon point to the start of the fall.

FED wold cut 100bp,and it would trigger the tsunamis.

Forgot to mention, HK has closed all its school b'cos of flu among its children. Also China chicken in farms died in masses. If the flu evolves into an epidemic, the Olympics is in peril, with only 4 months to go.

Probably the market is telling us some hidden Black Swan events ahead.

Besides USDJPY close the week on a down note, also EURGBP made a new historical high,
besides Gold, etc.

The reason why the FED is not worried about Inflation, is b'cos they know they would be fighting Deflation eventually. Now in this high commodity prices, firms would be on a rampage to mine, produce, etc. Then as economies slow, there would be too much goods running after too little monies (tighter credits, shrinking capital, consumers holding back). Hence once inflation peaks, we would be in a Deflation Spiral. As of now, we have not seen the top of inflation. Till we see riots happening on streets worldwide.

Hence analyst also say the earnings or PE raito is very attractive at current level. Well, when deflation comes, all companies would not to re-rate thier earnings.

On Friday, the CPI was mild. Why ? b'cos US is already in recession.

Would FED rate cutting and the stimulus package helps ? It does help to stall the plunge for a while. We would see a few quarters of near ZERO growth while inflation recedes, and then the march towards Deflation, an extended period of negative growth.

In the latest Tsunamis who killed hundreds of thousands in Phuket, Sri Lanka,a little gal taught us that before Tsunamis come, the coastline would recede, and the sand would be frothing.

When the Wall Street Tsunamis come, markets would be bouncing around the lows, before the giant down waves arrive.

Now, are you the one out there in the sands picking up sea shells, pearls ?

Then, I say my prayers to you...................

If want to know how to invest and make monies in Deflation, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for subscription.

Market discount future happenings. Hence if Kondtratieff Winter is coming in the next 6 months, it wuld show up in the equities market now.
However we are not in a Winter yet, but in a recession. Hence current level reflects a mild recession. However if a Winter is coming, the market would fall from current level to let say 50% down, (which I think is likely).

Otherwise, we may see a rebound from current level, if US is expected to recover in 3/4th Quater.
However, looking at the way USDJPY, SPX, INDU are all behaving. A recovery is not going to happen. (i.e. all the FED rate cuts may not be enough).

11 March Spitzer vote

Would today mark the fateful day when SPX, INDU would plunge into the abyss ?

CNBC still hosts people talking about whether it is a Recession or not, when Stock market has already crashed more than 19% from its top.

For SPX 1259 holds the key to deciding if 20% has been exceeded. hence the drop from 1575 would reach 20% at 1259. For INDU it is 11362 (Monday low 11731)

Then would Equities form a double bottom ? or the beginning of the plunge into 1190 ?

If you want the answers, you need to subscribe to dollarproaraon@hotmail.com.

Fed is pondering "wasting" several hundred billions to bby the debt of mortgage firms directly, and lending to hedge funds instead of via the Banks. Considering the financial markets at large is in Trillions.

This is indeed negative for US and USD in the long term, as the FED would be printing monies for the masses. Like when it bailed out LTCM, Amaranth, it is now bailing out the mortgage firms.

Literally, Ben is throwing monies out of the helicopter onto the masses.

If he manages to avert Deflation, he would be remembered in history as the Bravest Fed Chairman in history. Then Volcker, Bernanke are the heroes, while Greenspan is the Villain.

Nonetheless, the movie "10,000 BC" has given us a clue. Human Beings have lived through the Ice Age and survived. Would Bernanke be the GOD who would avert the next Kondratieff Winter ?

For those who have been following my blog, you would have saw my DXY, SPX projection. A low of 60 is never in doubt, now at 72. Then 40.

The cost of averting the Winter has its cost, Dollar is going to pay.

Spitzer
I would like to support Spitzer, anybody who try to save the US from subprime crisis deserve some support. He was trapped by the IRS. Which guy would not resist a beautiful petite blonde ? (if any of you has anything to offer, pls email me).
It is a problem between him and his wife.

Those who support Spitzer, pls click on the Google Ads on the right.

10 Mar Bear on rampage / British surprise

What is British surprise ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_5W4t_CBzg&feature=related

It is Paul Pott, watch it. "Britian got surprises"
Nobody was expecting it, except me.

Guess who is going to perform in front of the Queen ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


USDJPY at 102.25. The move down for EURO from 1.5460 is obviously a MANIPULATION. Who else is so confident of selling down EURO ?

Hence coming week, JPY would steal the show. When the BoJ and Government is fighting on the next successor to Fukui. Fukui who has always wanted to increase rate, but did not, got himself a farewell gift. YEN at 99 soon.

Malaysia is in deep trouble after the ruling coalition lost big time in the election on Saturday. While Thailand returns to a new government in the shadow of the previous corrupt Prime Minister in exile. Philippine President Arroyo is facing political pressure. With Mynmmar in its fold, the entire South East Asian countries would face intense pressure in the rest of 2009.

Malaysia market opened 6% lower. Singapore at close to -2%.

And next is the Taiwan election coming on 22 March. If the Taiwan people voted for independence from China, you would see a plunge in China markets.

The entire Asia is in trouble.

It is time to pull funds out of Asia, big time.

Jim Rogers have moved to Singapore, and is blowing hot on China, Asia, commodities there. He ran away from New York, too bad, the Bear has caught up with him.

When the Bear is on rampage, you can run but cannot hide.

VOTE:
if you agree that Asia is in trouble, click on the Google Ads on the right.

9 Mar Stock Market Crash of 2008 leading to Great Depression

http://www.kereport.com/videos/Kondratieff/Kondratieff2.html

Kondratieff Winter is coming, GREAT Depression

In the first video, it mentioned the PPT and their workings.

Watch out, the Plunge Protectin Team is at works next week. They would SHORT Tonnes of Gold contracts on Tuesday or Wednesday Asia open, and buy billions of Dow and S&P Futures.

Spectre once in a life time, watch it.

The videos were taken sometime in 2007. one of the speaker mentioned that one of the years Dow went from 11750 to 7000, Kondratieff Winter follows.

Now FED has only 2 choices: A Stagflation or a Deflation.
Seems like Ben Bernanke has preferred Stagflation, but he knows Deflation is coming.Hence he has been trying desparately to cut rates to induce a Stagflation, instead of a Deflation.

Ben was asking the Banks to reduce the mortgage principal, literally to cut the loan.
What he is telling is that Banks should cut the loan to the market value than to lose it altogether.

Why is he so confident of saying that ? B'cos we are going into a deflationary cycle, Kondratieff Winter per se.
The last Kondratieff Winter started in 1929. If the cycle started in 2007, we still have 10 years to pass in the Winter.

Soon, it would not be just be the Mortgages, it would be commercial loans, Real Estates, etc. All values would plunge.

The world markets would enter into a Quarter of re-rating their earnings forecast.

The more I write, the more I read, is driving me crazy. We are for sure going into a Winter. I am going to catch the movies "10,000 BC", hopefully, Dow would halt at 10,000, and not 7000 or lesser.

8 Mar Stock Market Crash of 2008

STOCK MARKET CRASH OF 2008
==========================

SPX did not manage to hold above 1300, closed at 1290. Well, you would know what would happen to Asia market next week. All Asia markets would gap down, and test their January low. Possibly 5-10% drop in a day, especially Hong Kong and Singapore markets.

Then overnight, US indices would be dragged lower, SPX would break 1270, and DJ firmly below 12000 by Monday close.

As for Oil, my forecast the top is below 107. Oil would grind lower in coming days to test 92 again. At least 106 is the high for this year. with a lot of consolidation in coming months between 78 and 90.

Gold would probably take a well deserved rest in coming weeks, cannot rule out a sudden burst of strength downwards towards a test of 180 days moving average at 760.
Though 850-900 is more likely.

March is a month of profit taking and consolidation.

With a pending 100bp cut on 18 March, USD is really hopeless.

If you believe that S&P would break its January low at 1270, pls click on the Googles Ads on the right.

If you read Quantum Physics, you know we live in a parallel Universe. In this Universe of ours, we are in a Bear Market. While in another universe, SPX is testing 1700 now.

God has given us clues of what is coming. E.g. the recent signs of Red Moon, EarthQuake, falling stars, etc. Also the most active Volcano on earth, in Hawaii, spewed lava today once again. Gunman running amock in schools, shops. Bomb blast on Times Square.

Did you see the movie "10,000 BC". Well, that is how God tells us Dow Jones is heading towards 10,000.
Remember the movie "1408" when SPX was hovering above 1500 ?
Also the movie "Fanatastic Four, the Silver Surfer" ? Silver has outperformed Gold.

At the end of the BEAR MARKET, Dow Jones would probably be at 9000, and S&P at 900.
It would take some time to play this out.

The SPX level of 1300 to 1400 is market way of saying Market is slowing down.
1200 to 1400 is recession for 2 Qtrs. (Fed fund rate at 3%)
1100 to 1200 is recession for 3 Qtrs. (Fed fund rate at 2%)
1000 to 1100 is recession for 4 Qtrs. (Fed fund rate at 1%)
900 is recession for 1 year or more. (Fed fund rate at 0.25%)

Guess what wold happen to US from 2009 onwards ?
Just look at Japan, a decade of going nowhere at negative interest rate. (Bank pays consumers to take loans). Massive nationalisation of banks.

US would enter into a decade of Deflation. By the end of 2008, all Central Banks would begin cutting interest rates. ECB would start to cut when Fed is at 0.25%. BoJ would be cut to 0.25%, and then begin another decade of going nowhere. China would slow down 3 months after the Olympics is over. Hong Kong would depeg from USD sometime in the 3rd Qtr this year.

Ben Bernanke would be a one term FED Chairman. (so sad, Alan Greenspan was smart enough to quit before his device catch up with him).

You can rest assured that both Republican and Democrats are in on this recession. They would prefer a recession starting in the Bush last yr, and market recover in 2011-2012, the next President (whether a Democrat or Republican) can seek a second term.

Hence do not expect much from the administration. 150billion is simply not enough stimulus. Bernanke is obvisouly frustrated and he decided to go out of the way to advice Banks to forgive loans, which should be the job of the Treasury.

All Ben Bernanke can do is to cut rate to 0.25%. USD would probably be at 1.8000 Euro and USDX at 60 by the end of 2009. By then USD would cease to be the World Reserve Currency, as all Central Banks hold little of it in their reserves.

Hank Pauslon would probably leave office before his term is up.

In 2nd Qtr, you can also see some consolidations among the Financial Institutions. Citigroup probably would be bought over, Meryll Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Bear Sterns, Morgan Stanly would consolidate into lesser entities.

SocGen would be be gobbled by Credit Agricole and BNP. UBS and Credit Suisse would merge.

Imagine you see the AMBAC Chairman talking on national TV, a white haired fat old gentleman slouching on the chair, yaking capital injection into his company. You know all these Bond Insurers time is up, no matter what.

Wall Street needs a new injection of Young, Energetic, Visionary, Honest people to survive the coming crisis.


The world would just muddle along. Emerging Economies would thrive. Inflation would be a fading concern, when Deflation kicks in.
All the goods from China, India would find lesser buyers. All prime properties prices would plunge. Bill Gates would go down 5 notches on Forbes ranking.

Those proud owners of GOOG, AAPL would find 3 years of their lifetime wasted, when stocks return to their prices 3 years ago.
(In Einstein theory of Relativity, when you travel at speed of light, time comes to a standstill. In Aragon theory of market plunge, your monies went nowhere for 3 years. e.g. GOOG going to 150 USD (peak 750 USD). AAPL to 50 USD (peak 200 USD).

In summary, we are just at the beginning of the multiple years recession, and hence bear market.

In Elliot Wave terms, we just finished the 5th wave of the 5th of the 5th,..., and we are into the correction wave, if there is another Bull, probably not in our life time.

These forecasts are made based on what is known. If a Black Swan event happen, then the plunge would accelerate. What may be a Black Swan event ? e.g.

(a) a football field size meteorite hitting Earth,
(b) Hawaii volvanoe erupt and slide into the Pacific Ocean, triggering a Mega Tsunamis overwhelming the coastal cities of Western USA.
(c) Bird flu morph into a human invasive variant causing a Pandemic
(d) the long awaited Andreas fault eruption
(e) war, China in Taiwan straits offensive
(f) Russia, US confrontation in Poland

Nonetheless we can trade tactically to make monies, once we know where the market is going.

IF you want to make monies or enhance your capital, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for a subscription newsletter.

Meanwhile, I am spending more time exercising, jogging, flyfishing, trekking. Health is the ultimate Wealth.

If I sound crazy, do pardon me, I just watched Tyra Banks Bra show, Tyra wears 2 bras when she jumped on the Trampoline. So should you with double protection in a volatile market like this. Do subscribe.

7 Mar post NFP

Gold falling as anticipated. Euro falling.
SPX drop to 1293 and then rebound to 1300.
Watch the closing hours. Some long Funds have to cut loss and sell before the market close.
USDJPY drop to 101.50 and rebound, a key support.
Only Oil is left hugging 104.

If you want to know what is next, do subscribe to my newsletter, "Naked Call letter" for forex, commodities, oil, gold.

and "Naked Equities letter" for major stocks indices, SPX, INDU, NDX including Asia indices, HSI, FSSTI.

Email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

7 Mar Today is the day MARKET CRASH. NFP at -63K

Update 8:31 am
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-63K.
Market plunge is assured. USD to test 1.5500 today and break.

Even if FED cuts 3% to 0% today, it cannot help.

Update 8:15 am
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FED to issue 50b in term auction facility.
Good, more monies for the Commodities rally, more fuel for the fire.
Well, not good enough to stall the Plunge coming.

Why does the market needs so much monies ? see where the monies is going to ?
the commodities !!!!. now the Funds cannot leverage, hence they borrow real monies from the Bank, who borrow from FED.

And FED knows it. Hence it is a FED sponsored inflation..

That is why the OPEC refuse to increase oil production, they know the HANK and BEN are hatching this plans for the benefits for the US institutions at large.

The current high Oil prices is actually sponsored by FED.
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The crash is coming. Today would be remember as "837 Black Friday".
All would crash, Gold,Oil, Commodities, USD as well.

If you agree that today, there would be a crash, pls click on the Google Ads on the right.

There are rumours circulating that the FED would give a impromptu hike.
In my opionion, unlikely, b'cos USD is already on the brink of collapse, Oil waiting to break 107.

If they do cut, the hell would break loose on USD. It would be knocking on 1.6000 next week.

Hence the Stock Market has to give. Expect a gap lower at 1270-1280.

6 March Euro, Gold, Oil TOP

those who think we are seeing a top today or tomorrow, do click on the Google Ads.

Back in January, I forecasted 107 as the top in oil. Oil just hit about 106.
Probably today or tomorrow is the day.

The current Gold, Euro, Oil rally is a big bull trap, midterm correction as I see it.

What may replace it is another rally in Stock.

5 March Kiss Goodbye

Euro, Gold, Oil, Commodities all making a bounce after the drop yesterday to KISS GOODBYE. (this is wrtieen when Oil hits 102.8, Gold 979, Euro 1.5255.)

The Oilman has been warned not to take the game too far. The myth that Oil is high b'cos of China, India consumption. That is a farce, because China, India consumption has been there all the while. China has its own secured supplies.
Bush is himself a Texan oil mogul. When he talks down Oil. He is giving a signal.

You see now the Turkey invasion has died down, Israel pull out of Gaza, Iran sanction has come and gone at the UN security council. All the dramas is now drawing the curtains.

Hence all the Funds have all aligned to sell and take profits, and plough them back into the Equities.

the low in US indices were made yesterday with SPX at 1307. The much anticipated rally has started. The reason, is too easy to guess. A much stronger NFP, (afterall these are just statistical manipulation). While ADP has given a false indication.
(you wonder why indices rally after ADP show negative ?)

It is all in my head. I read tommorrow newspaper today. I have the supernatural power to walk the parallel universe.

5 March market tumble as predicted

last week, my subscriber has been told about the coming tumble.

Gold, commodities started to make low yesterday, got more legs to go, of course with a seemingly dead cat bounce.

Funds are taking profit already. Monies are gushing out from commodities into equities.

My subscriber says:

To: dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
Subject: RE: gold plunge
Date: Wed, 5 Mar 2008 05:40:55 -0600

yes it did plunge....your accuracy is simply scary...

I forecasted the plunge. I forecasted the rise of Euro to break 1.5000.

So you see, trading is a breeze. There are people out there consistently making a steady stream of income, like me. Provided you dun listen to those analyst out there. So far I have not read any analyst from Fxxx, or another other sites for that matter. I do my own analysis, get annectodal information from my ex-colleagues in the banks, financial institutions, politicians, etc.

For the ignorant 50%, all the markets moves are well planned by the insiders.

For those who hold real monies, a few hundreds of subscription fee can easily TRIPLE you monies in no time, using a small portion of it trading forex, stock, gold futures.

Email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

4 Mar 8:20 am ET update Central Bank support

you see the down move whipper out. The move was obviously targetting 101 to 102.

If 103 holds, then we see a move to 111. However we are just on the 2nd trading day of March, the wave of Yen buying has yet to come.

subscribe for my Naked Call newsletter for uptodate signals and calls. Email: dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

4 March 12:30 ET Market Plunge coming. Armageddon

USDJPY is held in a tight range, having closed the gap, it is now ready for its next plunge into 85.
Yes, 103 to 85. Nikkei wold breakdown 10,000.
As does all other Asia markets,
US SPX is expected to test 1200 (now at 1330).

Gold has broken its minor upward trendline from 925. Time for the much awaited PLUNGE.

Aussie has already started the plunge. Conservative, we are looking at 0.9000 if not 0.8900.
Soon all would follows, CRB, coffeebeans, pork bellies, copper, platinum, palladium, rhodium, GOLD, Silver, palm oil, etc.

God is kind. He has given us the sign.
Red moon, Earthquake, Falling stars.

And the recent rampage of kills on campus, public places in US is pointing to the Dark Force rising.

Soon ALL MARKETS (Stocks, Commodities, Gold, Properties) would plunge so much that everybody is flabbergasted.

Naturally another pre-FOMC rate cut of may be 1%.

What is the level to buy, then you got to subscribe: dollarproaragon@hotmail.com, pls quote "Armageddon".

I have been waiting for this moment for quite a while.

Vote:
Those who believe Armageddon has come, pls click on the Google Ads.

3 March Carry Trade Death

USDJPY now at record low, going to challenge 101.67.
when that breaks, USDJPY would be back to 80-90. Then hell would break loose.
Nikkei would plunge, so will Asia markets.

Otherwise, BoJ needs to reflate the Carry Trade, to fuel the next Equity rally.
I.e. BoJ need to buy USD aggressively, buy the US treasury notes, which they have shun in earnest in the past few months.

For the Jap to save their Stock Markets, they have to go back to their morphine.

Japan holds the key to the impending crisis, the Dollar Crisis and Market plunge.

The Japanese would be cast into another decade long curse. The Japanese would be held back, while China rise to the world arena in the next decade.

The oppposite would be another decade of carry trade, financial exuberence to the worlds end.

The world now needs a UltraMan.

2 March end all

Would next week SPX drop below 1270, especially after NFP, amidst a Dollar Crisis, with USD index dropping to 70, and Oil reaching for 110 ?

Thereby SPX reaching 1150, where everybody is waiting in ambuse ?

Would the market ends the agony of waiting ?
Would the market just give us 1000 USD Gold ?

Everybody is earnestly waiting.

1 March Fed joining the chorus

indeed, FED has taken a turn, now joining in the chorus of doomsayer, just like last yr when it was the cheerleader in the market rally.
E.g. Bernanke says there is a possiblity of a bank failure.
Talks of Stagflation. etc.

VOTE:
Those who think SPX would break 1300 next week, pls click on the Google ads.
SPX close today at 1330.

I would not be publishing forecast and calls for a while, if you want, you need to subscribe with a fee. Do hurry before I close subscriptions. (too many to handle).