Gold broke 890

at 8:55 am ET, Gold finally broke 890. should bring it down to retest 850 very soon.
let say a 50 USD drop within a day or two.

WTI crude still holding at 129. Would crude takes the hint ?

Soon EURUSD may be breaking down again towards 1.5400.

US Treasury has finally shown its hands............

Now US has lost its authority to accuse China of manipulating currencies.

Hence we may see CNY weakening going forth. The reverse of the ever rising RMB has finally begun.

Today 29 May marks a turning point in USD history. It has lost its legitmacy as a World Reserve Currency, as it is no longer a stable FREE FLOATING currency.

29 May USDJPY to challenge 106

USDJPY carry trader trying to make a breakout.

Not an opportune time for Carry Trade to resume, when bank risks are worsening, property prices dropping. Hence USDJPY should not rise much further. 106 should be the cap.

Month ago, in my blog, I mentioned that Banks like HSBC was offering Euro deposit at 4.25% interest p.a. for a 2 months fixed deposit.

Imagine how can they possibly make monies when ECB rate is at 4% ?

Obviously the Banks entice the masses to buy Euro and then they sell Euro into the market, and make the difference when Euro weakens. The Banks are confident of that b'cos after the Washington IMF World Bank meetings, there seem to be a consensus among institutions or Central Banks to allow a stronger Dollar to stall inflation.

However never did they then foreseen Oil to rise above 120-125.

Hence the 1.5800 upto 1.6000 level is heavily defended, as a lot of Institutions Long positions with stops at that levels.

However, it also means there is a Crown Jewel out there for the taking. Whoever can
push it through 1.5900 to 1.6000, has a lot to gain, both in Forex and Equities.

Hence, who would be the Black Knight ?

Shall I call for battle to push Euro to 1.6000, if yes, pls click on the Google Ads.

22 May Euro rose as expected

IFO rekindle the passion in Euro. Would it return to 1.6000, the answer is in my subscription.

email dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

21 May BEAR TRAP ?

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19 May It was a bull trap as I forecasted

indeed Bull trap. those who follow my chart, would have got 100 pips instead. A bit tricky though as there was a pike up 1.9630 to clear stops.

Earning quick pips is easy. If you are trading big time, you better subscribe to my letter to hedge your risks.

At least, you know you are trading in the right direction. How many pips you get, is a matter of practice and skills.

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19 May China Earthquake

On the last Monday, when I last wrote, China had its largest Earthquake in history, on a Richter scale of 8.0 . Towns and villages were lost. Massive river get cut off from colliding mountains.

Hundred thousands were either lost or missing.

Hence today, at Monday Easter Time 2:28 am, I annouce 3 minutes of trading halt to mourn the dead. And if you are willing and able, contact your nearest RED CROSS and donate for the cause.

TRADING WISE
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believe it is a bull trap, with distribution on Monday/Tuesday. Gold broke 900 but should fall back again, while Oil may make a large fall towards 100, one more time, before a substantial rise to 150.
Same for Euro to drop again, by no means the end of the long march.

If you want to know more ? subscribe to dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

If you agree that it is a Bull Trap in development, click on the Google Ads.

11 May 2008 Horror Story

Have you watched any horror stories recently ?

While Equities were dropping hard, the Plunge Protection Team met over a weekend in March and decided to call a top in Gold. Gold gap up above 1000 on the Monday morning and drop and never looked back.

Then in April, Rice was surging. The Rice producing nations (Thailand, Mynmmar, Vietnam) met and wanted to setup a Rice Cartel.

All nations central bankers met in Washington over the IMF meeting, and decided on a stronger USD to ward off inflation.

However, to the contrary, Oil bucked its downtrend, and started to surge past 120, now at 125. With calls to 200 Oil.

Now for most nation, other than China and US, a 125 USD Oil is more expensive now, b'cos USD is now stronger against EURO and most Asia currencies.

When all nations thought they can hide behind a strong USD to fight inflation. They actually fan the inflation.

Hence now economists are calling for a weaker Asia economies next year. The effect of the 120 to 150 USD oil would be felt 6 months down the road.

Now, the Asia countries have nowhere to hide.

Isn't it like a horror movie ?

(GBPUSD itself is a horror show, with Bull traps all the way).

8 May Euro target 1.5330 almost reached

Euro hit 1.5332 at Asia open 8pm ET. 2 pips short of my forecast of 1.5330.

It is errie, isn't it.

Update 5:40 am ET
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Euro broke 1.5300, depressing indeed. I am looking at a test of 1.5200.

Roubini spoke at the forum at Council of Foreign Relations on 25 April. indeed a depressing picture for US.

7 May Trichet, trichet......rest well.

indeed nobody knows in a way where USD is heading. Just as Nicole Elliot was ranting on national TV that she does not know where USD is heading, to 1.5000 or 1.6000.

meanwhile, Euro went higher than my forecast of 1.5550 to 1.5600 and now down to touch 1.5400 which I expected. I saw the bounce from 1.5360 to be just a bounce.

I am calling for a challenge of 1.5360 again, and touch 1.5330.

Long Euro 1.5330
Target 1.5900
Stoploss 1.5300

This holds for today. Tomorrow would be a different call.

Would update my subscribers once I see a new call.

If you agree with my call, click on the Google Ads.

Update 10:40 am ET
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indeed Euro falling back as what I have predicted since Monday, and mentioned to my subscribers. The NFP bottom would likely be broken for a new low. I see a low at 1.5330.

The future of Euro hinges much on what Trichet is going to say tomorrow.

If Trichet utter pigeon talk, then Euro would tank towards 1.5000. And it signals the onset of Europe slowdown, a lag against US. And unfortunately, an admittance of lost against Inflation.

I read that Americans are queueing up at St John free meal outlets in increasing numbers. Most of the new people are actually working adults who find it unaffordable a 10 dollar breakfast.

Cutting rates only marginally improve export, for those less competitive industries. However cutting rates have an immediate impact on raising prices of imports, agriculture, commodities, oil, skills compensation. Foreigners expect a higher salary to compensate for the dropping Euros.

When inflation arrives in Europe, it is going to be a horror scenes, with strikes, riots everywhere. the first places to burn would be France and Italty.

Europe has slowed before, it was still in slow growth way back in 2005, when US was already in wonderland.

However when Europe ends up in Inflation, it is going to be back to Austrian days.

Probably Trichet would have a difficult time sleeping tonight.

I dun know what you are going to say, but I know how the market is going to react.

6 May Dollar Strength ?

Look at the charts, I am calling for USDJPY to test 106 and upwards.
EURUSD to bounce off 1.5550 and head lower again to retest the low at NFP.

Oil touched 120. Should turn down and then up again.

surprising, 1 week and all dollar strength disappeared.

however still looking at USDJPY to probe the Asteroid Belt, and then fall off from
108.

Buffet and Greenspan out to scare people about Recession once again. Bernanke was there scaring people about foreclosure.

All scaremongers running around in the market. This would provide the next wave of short coverings to move the Equities up.

Guess the only people buying the markets are the short coverers.

If you are interested in more intimate guidance, subscribe to my letter for forex
or Equities.

Email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com

2 May USDJPY beam me up scottie

USDJPY, raring to break into Saturn Asteroid Belt. Let us see if the space craft survive the knocking.

Long USDJPY 104 to 104.50
Target 108
Stoploss 104

SPX broke 1400, DJ broke 13000. Hence when everybody broke resistance, it is another hell of a ride.

Afterall this subprime hoax is just a deception to suck in monies from China, Asia, MiddleEast. Or a profit taking of sort by the biggies.

Or is there a Part 2 to this hoax ? lately the Sucker Wingdang Funds (SWF) are much in the news again.

1 May GBPUSD

some tips for making monies. Bias for GBP is to the downside. watchout.

It is May Day, lots of protests in Europe, Asia, over food, jobs, etc.

Seems like we are into a long period of instability worldwide.

Analyst coming out to talk down Oil, etc Mobius of Templeton,etc.

With hindsight, Greg Ip was half right. FOMC did cut 25bp but did not signal a pause.

a 1% FED funds rate is real possiblity. Bernanke wants to fuel the next bubble. Let us hope that it does not burst while blowing.