31 Jan Month End

Yesterday call.

My subscriber got this to say: "Thank you 140 points from 1.4760 to 1.490 "

30 Jan Cut Cut / American Gold

GATA advertisement on Wall Street Journal on 31 Jan 2008.

many months ago, in another public forum, I posted that FED would cut to 1.5%, now this is becoming a reality.

However the point of no return is 3%, if FED cuts below 3%, then its ability to influence the ecomomy would be gone. B'cos inflation is now hovering close to 3%.

Essentially, it does not make sense for Americans to save, might as well spend it. It would spur greater American consumption, while Asia is trying to kindle its own consumption.

US would spend itself dry within a decade. What would happen is more falling bridges, floods, electricity undersupply, cutback in Medicare, Medicaid. Already it could only afford a meagre 150billion rescue package so far. If another disaster comes along, US would be spent.

Some bigshot talk about the resilence in the American economy, e.g. it sprung back from the dotcom bubble, the 911, the Katrina. Now it was 3 times lucky, how about the 4th time ? The odds are indeed against US this time round.

From a currency point of view, USD at 1.5000 is equilibrium with Euro in the long run, comparing the budgets, trade, etc.

US would emerge from this near recession, but fall into another greater crisis in 2009, a depression, not recession.

This FOMC would sound so tame that turn a Tiger into a Pussy.

I am planning to start another Naked Call letter focusing on Equities. For those interested, pls email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com.

Update 5:05 am ET
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some subscriber ask why am i so sure, FED would give 50bp cut, not 25bp, not 75bp.

Last FOMC, there gave 75bp cut, which is the magic number "3", fibonacci number.
now if they give another 50bp, it would be "5" cut, another fibonacci number.
Then Fed fund rate would be at 3%, another fibonacci number.

That is how we use Fibonacci number to trade. got it ?

You can see I posted GATA advertisement that is to be published on 31 Jan 2008 Wall Street Journal.
Essentially individuals under the Freedom of Information Act is asking to Treasury Department to come clean with what is happening to America's Gold reserve.
The concern is that the Gold reserve has been used in swaps or options to suppress the Gold prices.

Last time, on the day Gold fell from 916 to 850, I wrote about Scooby Doo investigating the Gold Monster which appeared at Fort Knox, the place when the government keeps the Gold Reserve.

Now, American public want to know about its Gold.

Have the Gold been pilferred away ? What do US has ? Has the administration been selling Gold to support the Iraq War ? or selling Gold to prop up the Stock Market ? or selling Gold to support the rate cut ?

The American need to know

Now the vote:
If you think the government had squaddered away American Gold, pls click on the links.
Thankyou,

Update 8:33 am ET
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http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHome/BrokeHomeownersTurnToArson.aspx
a MSN article on foreclosure homeowners turn to burning their houses.

Months ago, I wrote in the other forum that those facing foreclosure should consider burning their houses, just when the California fire was rampant.
Obviously, I am not the only one thinking about it.

29 Jan We make monies in uncertain market

This is the chart for today, released at 5 am ET to subscribers.
If you want to get the chart in time, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com
for feed subscription.

Something from a subscriber today:

"Hello Pro, and thanks for the great calls. I was watching the charts Sunday eve, seeing how they basically conformed to your calls at the end of last week. I waited until I received your Naked Call letter, then went Long on 3 pairs, and went to bed. Woke up Monday morn to handsome profits, and hung on for a bit longer ... resulting in 100 pips on each of 3 trades. A great way to start the “work” week.Really appreciate your including the ENTRY points, TARGETS, and STOPLOSS settings for the trades. It is great when you can include such accurate calls for us."

28 Jan We need another Rogue Trader

EURUSD, taken almost 9 hours ago. If you had this earlier, you probably would have position at 1.4670 for a easy ride to 1.4750 and more.


USDJPY. Here is another money making ideas. 108 is the ceiling.

If you made monies from this charts, click on the links. Thanx,

today is characteristed by those who bought the plunge taking profits. Hang Seng Index down today, with a late hours recovery.

Also JP Morgan, Bank of NY goes on TV talking about Euro to fall to perhaps 1.4000 level. and of course GBP is hopeless (this is what all analyst agrees).

Now we hear from European Banks, Fortis, Credit Suisse, ABN is surprisingly quiet.

We need some more rogue traders to make this markets really attractive to buy.

For those who want to subscribe, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with a fee.

thanx for the votes last Friday, surprise to see quite a number of readers profiting from this blog. Well done, Kudos go to your execution. I just supply the idea.

Update 6:30 am ET
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Kennedy endorses Obama. seems like Obama is on a winning streak. Sometimes those wallstreet nerds are good for the economy.

Update 10 am ET
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these guy from LPL Financial was saying that housing is bottoming, and the housing sales came out at -4.7% more than the -0.3% expected for Dec.
When asked on national TV, he says "yes, it is definitely bottoming, but the bottom is much lower than expected".

For all these analyst, there is always a way out.

Euro rallies towards 1.4800, and now dropping back a bit. GBP also stab at 1.9880, dropping back now.

I guess market want to salute Bush and would pause it rise meanwhile.

27 Jan Market has pumped up and ready to go

surveying all the charts, news,
only one conclusion. Equities are ready to go again. Market assumes current price has factored in a recession for 2 Qtrs (dec 2007, jan 2008). market expecting economy to rebound in 2Qtr 2008. hence it would rise, however how far it goes is the question. Bush cheques would be released in May 2008, supposing to boost economy in 2nd Qtr.

if it cannot get back above the bull trend, then we are looking at a continous recession lasting 1-2 yrs.

hence market has priced in a 50bp cut next week, and a GDP of 1% or slightly better. The surprises would be a hawkish FED with a 25bp cut, and a negative GDP.
The other risk is Gold races into its terminus and completes its journey in double short time.

In general, it means continued USD weakness, Gold strength for the next month.

At least dun be fried shorting stocks in the next few weeks.

26 Jan Fed duped by rogue trader

see today Financial Times. it has a story of how FED may be duped by Jerome Kerviel. A bunch of intellects bluffed by a French. Interesting.
No wonder ECB refused to budge and cut rate.

now, would FED have to carry on their mistake and cut again ?

25 Jan Rogue Trader

this chart was given to subscriber 11 hours ago. A breakout has indeed happened. the highest reached was 108. Then it was at 107.17. 80 pips no frills. you earn back your subscription just with one trade. Email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "subscribe".


yesterday chart, it exceeded my expectation to the upside.

Consider what the SC trader Jerome has done, it is pretty cheap to spend $7b to rob the world markets of Trillions.
Now analyst attribute the recent sudden Equities plunge to his action.

And news has it that he built a scam inside SG, not just a accidental wrong call.

Probably he is hiding and trading on his own monies now.

last time it was 1billion, and Barings go bust. now 7b and SG is still smiling. You can see how monies have flooded the world markets. Monies is cheap, to say the least. It is just tree pulp and some ink.

Would like to do a vote, if you have been making monies following this blog, pls click on the link here. So that at least I am motivated to provide more information.

Update 2:45 am ET
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German consumer confidence December number just in at 109, slightly weaker. Import prices at high.

Euro/Silver/Gold all waiting for break up. EURGBP looking to break down. EURJPY going higher.