Sunday, May 31, 2009

31 May June ? what's up

Coming 5 June may be a key reversal date. Two scenarios:

(A) we drop like a stone on Monday after ISM, especially after the spike on Friday closing trade. ES mini reach 927. Cash SPX reached 921.
Accoding to marketticker Daneric, he prefers that it was a last minute Short Squeeze taking out the stops from 915 onwards. And it was some big sell contracts taken out. Obviously some Biggies was positioning for selling.
Would that Big Sell guy comes into reposition shorts ?
If there is a drop, would 50 days 830 hold ?

(B) As the last minute surge has broken some key trendlines, necklines on some indices, e.g. NDX, is it a signal of the new breakout ? that would give the scenario of 5 days of rise towards 930-960

Hong Kong HSI has established new heights, same for Straits Times STI, however most of its component equities have not established new heights.

If scenario (A) takes shape, then we would have 10 years Treasury yeilds backing down. Flee to safety makes Tbills more attractive, prices go up, yields come down. This would be Bernanke preferred sceanrio. However 10 yr Treasury yields ($TNX) has already done the technical damage ( a breakout from a consolidation). How far can yeilds drop ?

Gold, Crude, EURUSD has to rally hard from here onwards, otherwise negative divergence spells trouble.(Higher high not confirmed by MACD).

An entire ship of Swine Flu victims (200 out of thousands) has been unloaded at Brisbane. It is of no worries at this point, bços it is not hign fatal form. However it is awfully infectious, nothing can be done about it. We just need the virus to mutate to a deadly form, then the outcome is known.

North Korea is now planning a long range missle (months ago, the missle fell into the sea prematurely). US has pledged stern action at the Shangrila-Dialogue over the weekend. It has now positioned Raptor fighters in Japan. North Korea nuclear program has Iran roots. Iran having presidential election in June. US is hoping that Admadinejadd would fail.

Crude official target may be 80 as declared by OPEC, OPEC secretary has said that the current rally is because of speculators, sentiments rather than Demand. Speculators would like push to 80 and decide, and we are not that far. With any impending military conflicts, we can easily climb above 100. Then SPX at 1000 would seem elusive.

Monday Asia would open strong to suck in more monies. Then ISM(May) would sway the actions.

GM
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News has it "GM announced Friday that it will build a future small car in the U.S. at an idled UAW-GM facility, which it will retool."

why would American need small cars ? Italian needs small cars bços their cities are old and streets are narrow. Imagine a sub-powered small car on America vast and sprawling highways. Another scheme to cheat Tax Payer monies. Fritz Henderson can go down in history as in cahoots of the leagues of cheaters like Geithner and Bernanke.

GM shares reached a low of 72 cents. There were quite some buyers at 1 dollar, hoping that the Bankruptcy bid would fail. now there are at 30% loss.

GM wants to stop those small cars imports from China/Korea. They think they can make cheaper. Look at what India tata is selling Nano at only thousand USD.

GM would continue to be a drag on US economies, and sap the Treasuries of monies. Last heard another 30 billions on the tap for the new GM. All in the name of protecting American Autoworkers. BTW, bços of dealerships cuts, lot of pple would go unemployed as well as the Suppliers.

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