A historic event is brewing. Just as Obama elect is a historic event in American history.
Rumours abound such as IMF shifting to Asia. HK, Singapore and Shanghai would be likely candidates. For China to invest in IMF, that leaves HK as the only candidate.
As for the fate of USD, unfortunately, the current spate of USD rally is more of risk aversion rather than fundamental strength.
Whatever comes out of G20 would be disadvantageous to USD, it is just a matter of severity.
Essentially G20 can acknowledge the importance of Euro as an alternate currency to USD as reserve, and encourage China to internationalise it RMB.
With another round of USD weakness, US exports may just save the economy again together with fiscal stimulus.
The world by no means is staging a recovery, but a bottom is put in place. Hence it would take a while for the next stock market plunge to come. Probably in May, months after Obama takes office and its mystic fades.
Having said this, do expect a spike in USD after the G20. (as usual to flush out the Euro longs).
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good to see you back
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