Thursday, February 12, 2009

12 Feb Buying Time

yes, buying time is what Geithner is doing, he is not in a hurry to buy bank assets. As there is no demand out there, any asset sales would depress the market value further. He is keeping the details, so as to put the market on a leash. He would reveal bits by bits, literally buying time.

The are tools that Bernanke and Geithner can deploy, but they are deliberately taking their time.

Overall, when the time is right, they would give the final push to jerk the economy out of the doldrums. The next highlight would be the April G20 meeting. Till then expect the market to stuck in range, perhaps with a downward bias. Noting that the GM/Chrysler bill is up on the table for review in March.

Meanwhile, China market is quietly climbing without much fanfare. Hence expect the more resilient economies to pull out slowly, while Doom sayers keeping the hot air on US markets.

US companies, or for that matter financial institutions with substantial China/Asia exposure would thrive better than others.

Natural resources companies are also in the mode of merger and acquisitions in anticipation of the next demand cycle. E.g. Chinalco and Rio Tinto.

For investors, you can buy when you find the market suddenly making a dive the next morning. Any test of the low is a buying opportunity. But do not buy after a rally, as rallies would not be sustainable when the time is not ripe.

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