10 March Waiting

Waiting is indeed the word. Those with monies waiting for the capitulation, those made monies waiting to take profit.
Nobody is moving without seeing any capitulation.

Today is 10 March, full moon. Retail Sales is due out this week. Perpahs everybody is hoping for a bad figure.

there is a Congressional hearing on the Financial Standards Oversight Board, in relation to FAS 157.

Funds are anxious to sell down the market, evidence:
(a) maniulating the HSBC shares in HK, trying to stage a market close sell down.
(b) investment houses issuing a spate of negative report/downgrades on some bluechips.
(c) Professors of doom speaking everywhere, from Delhi, HK to California

The fear machine is working overtime indeed.

The conventional wisdom is stay out, stay out of the banks, conserve cash, buy bonds if there is monies left. Waiting for the next bank to be nationalised.

SPX popular target is 640, last was 666, while GE low was 6.66.

OR has the devil carved out a bottom already, while everybody is waiting ? VIX is subdued, essentially people has stayed out buying puts.

Only the day traders are fuelling every rise and fall, following the channel descent or channel pop.

Is there enough fodder for the much awaited pop up or down ?

GOLD trying to move down. However, GOLD may just follow the market and rally in anticipation of future inflation. Either stock up or down, GOLD is going to go up.

In that case, we would get to 1200 sooner than most funds are expecting. In fact they are selling short at 1000.

The future for USD is sealed, when RMB is going into free float. China is now testing international settlement in RMB in Shanghai. RMB itself is a basket of currencies.

While Japan has pledged support to Us treasuries. Hence you see the continous rise if USDJPY.

Hence we would see a situation where Yen is the weakest, followed by USD, and then the stronger currencies would be GBP, EUR and Emerging Asia Economies. We would discount the Eastern Europeans currencies.

We may start to see USD carving out a double top, while the USDJPY carry trade would resume to fuel the next bubble, if not next rally. Going back to good old days.

Now, the bottom in stock is coming, and everyone is waiting.