the completion of the Beijing Olympics mark the end of an era for China. When China was bullied back in the 1800s under the late Qing Dynasty, with incursion from the 8 Countries (UK, Holland, Spain, US, etc) and then occupation by Japan.
Under the opening up of the Communist rule, China has prospered. The stock market is teething on 2500, after falling from 6000.
There are many billionairs in Beijing watching the Olympics, may be they would take out some monies to buy some stock in China.
As I previously forecasted, Saakhasvilli would disappear from Georgia on the 24 Aug.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/200882491453556899.html
Let us see how the market reacts. Probably the funds are buying secretly meanwhile.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Saturday, August 23, 2008
23 Aug GOLD and the FED
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/08/21/2008-08-21T203934Z_01_N21515012_RTRIDST_0_GOLD-EAGLE-SHORTAGE-UPDATE-2.html
Let us talk about GOLD. US government suspends minting of American EAgles can only be good news for the bulls.
It is the largest 1 ounce GOLD that are short, meaning the buying are form the Big buyers not from the man in the street.
Bços of the high cost of extraction, (energy, facilities, labour), Gold price has to stay above a certain level to make extraction sensible. Otherwise the miners would halt, and supply would drop.
Hence there is a certain floor to Gold price on a long term basis. The largest miners are now in China, with South Africa in the second. American Gold mine are now on a down path.
There are lots of Gold ETF around, in Asia, Singapore, HK. and China launched their GOLD Futures trading last yr. GOLD buying has been a trend as a preservation of wealth, not as a speculative tool. It is not a frenzy yet, the masses have not caught on with GOLD.
The Government stops minting Gold bços the cost has escalated, and with the low Gold price at 800, it is not profitable to do so. Ironically, the Government may instead be hoarding the GOLD either bços it sees GOLD going higher, if not it itself is in negative holding of GOLD.
GATA (www.gata.org) weeks before GOLD peak at 1030, was demanding an inspection of the US Treasury GOLD, which came to no conclusion. Has the Treausry been depleting US GOLD to enter into loan/swap agreements to generate revenue ? And that make the real GOLD holding of the US government much lesser than what is on the books.
Hence the real question is NOT how much of GOLD the public holds in ETFs, but how much of GOLD does the Treasury really owns ?
And Bernanke has said that he glances at the price of GOLD occasionally during the day. The FED is mindful of the price of GOLD. Bços GOLD stands for the TRUTH.
in the 1800's, Americans, UK, Dutch, French sells opium to China in exchange for gold, silver, jades, ornaments, etc. A big portion of the GOLD held by ECB, and US orignates from China.
China/Japan/India and other Asian countries have very low holdings of GOLD in relation to their foreign reserves.
With USD at current level, it is good time to diversify from Treasuries bonds, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds to GOLD. And that explains why US is running out of GOLD to mint the American Eagles.
It is the first sign of US Treasury cracking. The biggest credit crisis is not the Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, or Fannie, Freddie, it is the FEDERAL RESERVE. Note the word "RESERVE". When the RESERVE runs out of reserves, it is going to be the Mother of all Bubbles.
Let us talk about GOLD. US government suspends minting of American EAgles can only be good news for the bulls.
It is the largest 1 ounce GOLD that are short, meaning the buying are form the Big buyers not from the man in the street.
Bços of the high cost of extraction, (energy, facilities, labour), Gold price has to stay above a certain level to make extraction sensible. Otherwise the miners would halt, and supply would drop.
Hence there is a certain floor to Gold price on a long term basis. The largest miners are now in China, with South Africa in the second. American Gold mine are now on a down path.
There are lots of Gold ETF around, in Asia, Singapore, HK. and China launched their GOLD Futures trading last yr. GOLD buying has been a trend as a preservation of wealth, not as a speculative tool. It is not a frenzy yet, the masses have not caught on with GOLD.
The Government stops minting Gold bços the cost has escalated, and with the low Gold price at 800, it is not profitable to do so. Ironically, the Government may instead be hoarding the GOLD either bços it sees GOLD going higher, if not it itself is in negative holding of GOLD.
GATA (www.gata.org) weeks before GOLD peak at 1030, was demanding an inspection of the US Treasury GOLD, which came to no conclusion. Has the Treausry been depleting US GOLD to enter into loan/swap agreements to generate revenue ? And that make the real GOLD holding of the US government much lesser than what is on the books.
Hence the real question is NOT how much of GOLD the public holds in ETFs, but how much of GOLD does the Treasury really owns ?
And Bernanke has said that he glances at the price of GOLD occasionally during the day. The FED is mindful of the price of GOLD. Bços GOLD stands for the TRUTH.
in the 1800's, Americans, UK, Dutch, French sells opium to China in exchange for gold, silver, jades, ornaments, etc. A big portion of the GOLD held by ECB, and US orignates from China.
China/Japan/India and other Asian countries have very low holdings of GOLD in relation to their foreign reserves.
With USD at current level, it is good time to diversify from Treasuries bonds, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds to GOLD. And that explains why US is running out of GOLD to mint the American Eagles.
It is the first sign of US Treasury cracking. The biggest credit crisis is not the Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, or Fannie, Freddie, it is the FEDERAL RESERVE. Note the word "RESERVE". When the RESERVE runs out of reserves, it is going to be the Mother of all Bubbles.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
21 Aug Asia Financial Crisis
http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200808/200808210026.html
Seems like the seeds are in for a repeat of Asia Financial Crisis, with a rapid depletion of the Foreign Reserves kept by Asia Central Banks.
E.g. Korea has been depleting their reserves defending the won, buying Won and selling USD.
And more agressive Central Banks like Singapore through their Sovereign Wealth Fund have depleted their reserves buying up UBS, CitiBank, Meryll Lynch, with the investment cut into half within months.
Hence looking at the rear view mirror, the notion of Asia decoupling from US markets is a myth. Once this myth becomes more obvious or evident to the general public, we may have a panic selling of Equities of all sort.
We are far from the bottom, despite the FED, Treasury, owners of investment banks try to make us believe the bottom is in.
Seems like the seeds are in for a repeat of Asia Financial Crisis, with a rapid depletion of the Foreign Reserves kept by Asia Central Banks.
E.g. Korea has been depleting their reserves defending the won, buying Won and selling USD.
And more agressive Central Banks like Singapore through their Sovereign Wealth Fund have depleted their reserves buying up UBS, CitiBank, Meryll Lynch, with the investment cut into half within months.
Hence looking at the rear view mirror, the notion of Asia decoupling from US markets is a myth. Once this myth becomes more obvious or evident to the general public, we may have a panic selling of Equities of all sort.
We are far from the bottom, despite the FED, Treasury, owners of investment banks try to make us believe the bottom is in.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
20 Aug Tribute to the Lion.
I am in front of the HSBC main branch in Central HK. Right besides the Lion of HSBC.
I see the baracades being lowered. When they lower the barricade, there would be alarms. You see see the progress of the barricades.
That reminds me of the market. GOD is merciful to warn your of the coming stock market plunge. If you do not heed you would be in the baricade.
May GOD have mercy on you......
Monday, August 18, 2008
18 Aug Pakistan
another hotspot, Pervez Musharraf is resigning. not a sudden news, but anticipated. Implication, the Taliban militants would soon be stirring, bços the democratic party of the late Benazir Bhutto, probably want to get even with the Taliban. And we would expect wide spread violence in a Nuclear Enabled Country.
US is losing power in Pakistan, and going to relinquish Iraq soon. The stage is now set for violent GeoPolitical events.
Gold fell as it has no fear. Just like a stuntman, if you know you would be well cushioned, the fall is ok. In fact the more dramatic the fall, the better it is.
As does EURO.
US is losing power in Pakistan, and going to relinquish Iraq soon. The stage is now set for violent GeoPolitical events.
Gold fell as it has no fear. Just like a stuntman, if you know you would be well cushioned, the fall is ok. In fact the more dramatic the fall, the better it is.
As does EURO.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
17 Aug Georgia to join NATO. War is brewing.
Merkel visiting Tbilisi, has invited Georgia to join NATO,
Saakhasvilli is refusing to cede any land to Russia.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3570539,00.html
If Georgia join NATO, Russia would be up against the whole of Europe, US, UK Turkey, etc.
Russia has to seize first mover advantage now and retake Tbilisi and install a Russia friendly government. In order to stall NATO forces, it need to take down the oil pipeline, and cut Europe oil supply. This would make NATO hesistant to mobilising its Naval Armanda, and aircraft without secured long term fuel supply.
Meanwhile, Iran would blockade the Homuz Straits in support of Russia.
BTW, Iran would speed up its plutonium enrichment program. By mid 2009, Iran would be able to equip its missle warhead with nuclear, (Russia would send in some newer long range missles infact).
As a parallel event, Israel would now to start activate its military strike preparation against Iran.
While China would play good guy and try to mediate. (a fight between Russia and US would propel China into a superpower). And UN with a hapless Ban Kee Moon.
Probably, the Taliban elements would take advantage and activate its sleeper cells with the proverbial suitcase nuclear device.
(it was reported that the New York state government has ordered more Geiger Counter recently).
By the time Olympics, the world is back to the reality of superpower competition.
IF you agree this is the scenario, pls click on the Google Ads.
Saakhasvilli is refusing to cede any land to Russia.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3570539,00.html
If Georgia join NATO, Russia would be up against the whole of Europe, US, UK Turkey, etc.
Russia has to seize first mover advantage now and retake Tbilisi and install a Russia friendly government. In order to stall NATO forces, it need to take down the oil pipeline, and cut Europe oil supply. This would make NATO hesistant to mobilising its Naval Armanda, and aircraft without secured long term fuel supply.
Meanwhile, Iran would blockade the Homuz Straits in support of Russia.
BTW, Iran would speed up its plutonium enrichment program. By mid 2009, Iran would be able to equip its missle warhead with nuclear, (Russia would send in some newer long range missles infact).
As a parallel event, Israel would now to start activate its military strike preparation against Iran.
While China would play good guy and try to mediate. (a fight between Russia and US would propel China into a superpower). And UN with a hapless Ban Kee Moon.
Probably, the Taliban elements would take advantage and activate its sleeper cells with the proverbial suitcase nuclear device.
(it was reported that the New York state government has ordered more Geiger Counter recently).
By the time Olympics, the world is back to the reality of superpower competition.
IF you agree this is the scenario, pls click on the Google Ads.
17 Aug Georgia update
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/200881623730798306.html
Russians are still on the move, despite so called Russia signing the truce.
With Poland signing the interceptor missles with US on last Thursday, there is no incentive for Russia to retreat. Any prolonged truce would allow Georgia to fortify its position with NATO peacekeepers, and then launch an international campaign to retake South Ossetia. Then Russia would be hapless.
I am sure there were countless truce agreement with Hitler, but Hitler still managed to retake whole of Europe.
The only peace can come if Saakhashvilli literally disappear from Tbilisi, and then install a Russian friendly government. Much like what US did with Iraq.
Now with Sarkozy, Rice, Merkel meddling, think the only way to halt their advances is to give them a shock.
The shock will come if the Oil Depots on the Black Sea got wiped out, if not the oil pipelines got cut off.
16 Aug has passed. No new happenings, looking forward to Crawford prediction.
Russians are still on the move, despite so called Russia signing the truce.
With Poland signing the interceptor missles with US on last Thursday, there is no incentive for Russia to retreat. Any prolonged truce would allow Georgia to fortify its position with NATO peacekeepers, and then launch an international campaign to retake South Ossetia. Then Russia would be hapless.
I am sure there were countless truce agreement with Hitler, but Hitler still managed to retake whole of Europe.
The only peace can come if Saakhashvilli literally disappear from Tbilisi, and then install a Russian friendly government. Much like what US did with Iraq.
Now with Sarkozy, Rice, Merkel meddling, think the only way to halt their advances is to give them a shock.
The shock will come if the Oil Depots on the Black Sea got wiped out, if not the oil pipelines got cut off.
16 Aug has passed. No new happenings, looking forward to Crawford prediction.
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