30 January Month End

The market going forward is largely crafted by Bernanke signal of deflation, the onset of Protectionism, and the Stimulus Package.
The odds are for further market weakness, albeit with weak rebound. USD is on the verge of a breakdown.
The crisis has past the Credit crisis, then economic recession and now to Trade war, and finally Depression is sealed.

From Elliot Wave perspective, SPX has completed its wave 4 retracement, and now going into Wave 5. If it pokes 740, then Wave 5 has fulfilled its criteria of completion, i.e. the most bullish view is a shortened aka truncated wave 5, the bearish view is a drop towards 640.

If market closes the month on 640 to 700, then going into Feb/March/April, we would be trading at a lower range at 700 to 800 (similar to current 800 to 900).

If market closes above 850, this gives the rally a bit more time to complete the C of a A-B-C retracement. The C may bring SPX back towards 940 to 950.

As for Euro, a completion of wave 5 is in sight with a rapid drop towards 1.2425 (1.618 projection of wave 4).

The fundamentals supporting the Euro is more of a American story: "buy America" slogan, anti-China protectionism, China cutting back on its Treasury holdings, Asia government redeeming treasuries for cash. All these points to a reverse flow of USD, i.e. selling USD into Asian currencies, Euro, GBP, Gold, etc.

Be prudent on shorting GBP, as any hint if ressurrection of GBP as a world prime reserve currencies at the coming April G20 meeting in London, would fan a massive short covering rally in GBP. SWF has been snapping up UK bank assets for example.

As for GOLD, it has resumed its bull trend, thanx to either Deflationary or Inflationary talk.
Remembered that after 1332 depression, we have the WWII in 1940. Holding physical Gold when you are fleeing your country would save your life and that of your family. Stay away from Gold futures or mining companies.

Today GDP would be key to trigger the completion of the massive A down move since OCT 2007, or the bulls may want to sustain the rally a bit longer.

The risk is a massaged GDP figure that spring a surprise, with the Market Makers pushing up to trigger a massive short covering. Most long positions are long term buying positions. While shorts are more vulverable.

Then we would need to argue if it is a A-B-C bear market rally to complete a wave 4, or wave 5 has been completed at Nov low and a new 5 waves has begun with wave 3 in progress.

Judging from the record high unemployment claims, a >-5% GDP is more likely.

Let us see if Euro can drop 400 points towards 1.2425 within 9 hours, now at 1.2888.
Or the GDP would be the trigger.

Good luck.