Thursday, April 30, 2009

30 April Bull market

this is indeed a wild bull, in the face of 6 banks needing capital, Chrysler bankrupt, Swine Flu. When it ends, it is going to be a big bang. The harder it goes up, the harder it falls.

The other objective of this bull, is to weed out the shorts. It starts to pay more and more to weed out the last remnants bears out there.

Looking at GS, see more block selling than buying. Block as in more than one thousand shares. like I see a big 5055 queue selling at 130 on the dot.

While the buying are more like small quantities, 100, 200, 300. Indeed we see a retail bull reaction.

The next down move would be heart wrenching for the retails, another generation of investors lost.

For the bears, you just wish the stock market just keep going higher. the higher it goes, the more pain is the fall.

The easiest way and more lucrative is another plunge.

USD index stage a rebound, Gold is holding 881, some obvious support there. EURO bounced off 1.3200.

Would the next big move be: Stock drop, Euro rise, Gold rise, Oil drop ?

Would not rule out SPX to 900.

GOLD and SPX on par again today at 883 to 886. Literally GOD and Devil kiss today, the last time was OPEX day 17 April.

The battle of Angel and Demon for 2nd time. Would there be a 3rd time, or they part ways as of today 30 April ?

My Gold Bug friend called me this morning, and said he is selling some of his paper Gold. Guess that is a contrarian signal. The retail is tired of holding Gold and GOld is not moving at all. We are going into the traditional lull months of Gold.
Also would "Sell in May, come back in September" norm happens for Stocks ?

1 comment:

DollarProAragon said...

Tom, long time no talk. YES.