Thursday, April 30, 2009

30 April pre-FOMC update



Euro touching the downtrend line from last rebound high from 1.6 to 1.4700, now at 1.3330. The decision is now on the hands of Bernanke if he wants to sacrifice USD and reflate the stock market further.

SPX still holding below 875. While NDX has touched its 200 days moving average and holding below it.

Mexico economy is now heading towards a tailspin by virtue of the swine flu. First death has happened in US.

Now Bernanke has to make the tough call whether to inflate the market further by announcing more buying of treasuries, paying interest on treasuries.

Otherwise, the much awaited correction to the current bear market rally / or continuation of the bear market would start.

However a fierce short covering may happen after FOMC in 1.5 hours time.

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