Friday, December 28, 2007

28 Dec FAITH in the second coming of EURO / Bhutto ?




this chart which I posted to my subscribers on 26 Dec (wed) would have gotten them easily 1.4640 - 1.4412 = 228 pips, or 2280 USD.

However to be frank, I never expected it to be so fast. Bhutto was the catalyst.

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The death of Bhutto has great remification to middleast peace. Bush was banging on Bhutto's return to Pakistan so that a new democratic government can rein in the radical islamic forces, and also to enforce Pakistan's border to prevent its mountain ranges becoming hideout for the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Now this plan has come to wreck, and the radical Islamic forces scored a temporary victory. If Pakistan falls into radical Islamic control, it would be the first Mulsim country with nuclear forces hostile to America.

Anyway, the Bhutto effect has rammed through the neckline at 1.4520. And day before I have urged caution on USD strength. However, the rise is faster than I think.

the question remains how far Euro would rise ? 1.4700 seems reachable, would it turn at 1.4800, or ram through 1.5000 once and for all ?

the answer would be in my subscription. Email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com with message header "Subscribe". If you do it by 31 Dec, you pay only 300 USD for 3 months, otherwise it would be 450 USD for 3 months in 2008.

Buffet has scorned the financials, and refused to inject monies. Was the Sovereign Wealth Funds got a good deal at the right time or Buffet was right. Clue: Buffet's monies is his, not that of oil or ordinary folks.

Bhutto effect may have greater impact on Equities. SPX at 1477. Can we rely on year end windows dressing to push SPX beyond 1500 (a critical milestone to intepret the rise as a new rally) or a greater decline has begun.

A plunging dollar, rising headline inflation (not in US though ironically, thanx to BLS and FED), high oil, flying GOLD. Now who on earth would want to buy up US and save the world ?

Update 2:15 am ET
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Would EURO challenge the downtrend channel at 1.4640 and fails and return to deep abyss heading towards 1.4076 as planned ?

Well, it is Xmas and the cliche goes like this.

If JESUS did not resurrect after 3 days, it makes HIS sacrifice meaningless.

If EURO does not rise again for greater glory after these 3 days, (Euro rise started on 26 Dec,
24 Dec it was still stalling below 1.4420), it make ITS drop from 1.4972 meaningless. You may be witnessing the second coming of EURO.

As many as non-believers in Christ out there, there are as many non-believers in the second coming of EURO.

Today Bloomberg ran a newstory titled "Dollar Strategiest Predicts end of Bear Market in 2008". One strategist say "Asia and the Middle East know they need to lend somesupport to the dollar, or they're all going to lose out".

Exactly, the dumb monies (Soverign Wealth Funds) are supporting Dollar. That is why they are DUMB. Buffet is much smarter. While the SWF buys dollars, the other more clandestine China forex investment company, diversify out of it.

By the way, with due respect, the USD Bear market indeed may end in 2008, on the 31 Dec 2008. Haahahahaha. Read between the lines, my readers.

Update 4 am ET
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Read a headline "Bhutto killing spooks stock".
Well, you know how Wallstreet works, may be today they cook up a story "Second coming of Bhutto, conspiracy theory of Bhutto death", then we get a rally in equities, and some USD strength.

Update 7:20 am ET
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see my newly attached chart (given to my subscribers 6 hours ago). the 61.8 is at 1.4717,
it touched 1.4712 at 6:15 am ET.

5 more pips and a lot of people logging in positions.

Update 10:45 am ET
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German CPI came in weaker than expected. MoM 0.7% vs expected 0.8%. YoY 3.1% vs expected 3.2%, prior 3.3%.
German CPI is on a downtrend, alongside a weakening economy.
Trichet no longer has reason to breath fire.
US is definitely on a accelerated cutting, with all weak data.
The wildcard is BoE.

With the China QDII scheme extending to UK (first before US/Europe), we may see some capital flows into UK.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/18/content_7271593.htm

Perhaps the Chinese are eyeing the Buckingham Palace.

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