15 Mar Market Crash next week. Kondratieff Winter is arriving. I hope I am wrong.

A tale of twin cities, the old one and the current one. C is the next one after Bear.

C can easily join LTCM, Amaranth.

Watch this space next week. The market is teethering on collapse. Equities can shave off another 10% from current position.

USDJPY has just dropped below 99. Last low in 1995 was 80. The last high of the consolidation pattern was 148, lower pattern at 125.

Hence we can easily see 75-80 in next few months. If not a 50 is possible. (look at the USDJPY monthly charts for the past 30 years)

Globally, all major banks are liquidating their Real Estate investments to raise capital. With them in unison to short the markets, the Equity markets has a lot more deeper to fall.

Expect banks like "C" to be next inline. A fall to below 10 USD/share is never in doubt, if there are bankdruptcy fears. Worst "C" would cease to exist by June.

Hence EURUSD may reach 2.000. A crisis indeed.

After the crash, the world population would be shaken, and live in cold freeze for the next 10 years.

There would be no decoupling, China would fall alongside. Look at their "A" shares, it is dropping preciptously.

Capital preservation is key.

I have been alway locked up in my lab, studying all markets, all instruments, (hence no able to post). AND I have come to a conclusion.

The last minute fall of USDJPY on Friday afternoon point to the start of the fall.

FED wold cut 100bp,and it would trigger the tsunamis.

Forgot to mention, HK has closed all its school b'cos of flu among its children. Also China chicken in farms died in masses. If the flu evolves into an epidemic, the Olympics is in peril, with only 4 months to go.

Probably the market is telling us some hidden Black Swan events ahead.

Besides USDJPY close the week on a down note, also EURGBP made a new historical high,
besides Gold, etc.

The reason why the FED is not worried about Inflation, is b'cos they know they would be fighting Deflation eventually. Now in this high commodity prices, firms would be on a rampage to mine, produce, etc. Then as economies slow, there would be too much goods running after too little monies (tighter credits, shrinking capital, consumers holding back). Hence once inflation peaks, we would be in a Deflation Spiral. As of now, we have not seen the top of inflation. Till we see riots happening on streets worldwide.

Hence analyst also say the earnings or PE raito is very attractive at current level. Well, when deflation comes, all companies would not to re-rate thier earnings.

On Friday, the CPI was mild. Why ? b'cos US is already in recession.

Would FED rate cutting and the stimulus package helps ? It does help to stall the plunge for a while. We would see a few quarters of near ZERO growth while inflation recedes, and then the march towards Deflation, an extended period of negative growth.

In the latest Tsunamis who killed hundreds of thousands in Phuket, Sri Lanka,a little gal taught us that before Tsunamis come, the coastline would recede, and the sand would be frothing.

When the Wall Street Tsunamis come, markets would be bouncing around the lows, before the giant down waves arrive.

Now, are you the one out there in the sands picking up sea shells, pearls ?

Then, I say my prayers to you...................

If want to know how to invest and make monies in Deflation, email me dollarproaragon@hotmail.com for subscription.

Market discount future happenings. Hence if Kondtratieff Winter is coming in the next 6 months, it wuld show up in the equities market now.
However we are not in a Winter yet, but in a recession. Hence current level reflects a mild recession. However if a Winter is coming, the market would fall from current level to let say 50% down, (which I think is likely).

Otherwise, we may see a rebound from current level, if US is expected to recover in 3/4th Quater.
However, looking at the way USDJPY, SPX, INDU are all behaving. A recovery is not going to happen. (i.e. all the FED rate cuts may not be enough).