Tuesday, March 18, 2008

18 Mar Brokeback mountain




SPX at 1270 is eventually broken. Asia markets falling like Dominos. The myth of a rebound so anticipated is not to be.
whatever Fed does today, the market is still going south.

Probably the market discounting the economic condition in 3rd to 4th Quarter. I.e. after a brief spell of fiscal stimulus, it did not work, and economy heading into deeper recession.

Hence the Asia economies are facing much slower growth into the year.

2009 would be the darkest of the dark. It is going to be a deeper recession than Katrina or the Internet Bubble, or the Asia Financial crisis.

Hence, it wold be quite interesting to see people going on newspaper, TV toking up the markets or their investments.

With Siemens (the German 100 years brand name) giving earning warnings, ECB would soon switch gear contemplating a cut or two for this yr.

At the end of 2008, we are likely to see FED at 0.75%, ECB at 3.5%, BoE at 4%.

The first to emerge from the recession is UK, then US, lastly Europe.

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