Friday, May 15, 2009

15 May OPEX day. no stock volatility. Euro broke downward.





to be more constructive, I post a chart of EURJPY. do you see the Three Peaks and a Dome House ?

Shella Bair she says "credit crisis is over, I hope." She looks like a FED Chairman potential. Shella Bair says she wants to remove Banks CEO. She is the Terminator type. and Banks need this type of Boss, tough, no nonsense, handson.

Temasek Holding has sold its stake in BoA, in late March, a bit premature. Obviously they dun employ good strategist like me. This remove an big impediment for Nationalisation of US Banks. For the past week, now and next weeks, the Sovereign Wealth Funds like Dubai investment, and our Prince Alwaeed probably are emptying their holdings of US Banks at current levels.

Soon in July, the Banks would need to file with SEC on their level 3 assets. Then the truth would be out. may be before Qtr 2 earnings. I suspect that Good Samaritans (GS) is holding the market at current level to allow the Treasury to bailout the SWF.

And I know of a lot of bankers selling products linked to the Banks, like Citigroup Equity Linked Notes to the unknowing retails. And of course mutual funds buying as well.

Today the TECHs are holding up. The Quick monies are rotating into the sectors on a daily basis, not holding any long positions. Like strong Financial yesterday, weak Tech yesterday, weak Financials today, weak Tech today. Suspect they are long bias. This is good for catching stops.

Geithner says he would stand behind GM in stakeholders talk. Good, bring along some butter for lubrication, Tim.

Utilities not doing well, utility supply sale not doing well, undersubscribed. Excess Capacities, excess power stations, nuclear stations, wind farm. Demand not there, Crude demand also down.

Excess capacities everywhere, excess banks, one Lehman down no big deal. excess car production capacities, probably excess media companies, excess casinos, overleveraged. The Deleveraging has yet to complete.

EurUSD just touched 1.3485, setting up for next week ? with 2 more hours into market close, let us see if SPX touch the sacred 872 and hold there. now at 884. a 12 point drop a tall order.

Looks like we got to keep Euro 1.5000 for another day.

No comments: