25 May Oil again

Yes, it is Oil again. Summer season, with the driving then the Hurricane coming. OPEC target at 70. happy with the production curb.

Euro/Oil has broken correlation with Equities. Used to be Equities rise, Euro rise, Crude rise. now it is Euro rise, crude rise and Equities fall.

US energy secretary Steven Chu says Oil spike would curb Economic Recovery.

HangSeng (HK market) priced in HKD (pegged to USD) has been lagging, while STI (Singapore market) has shown resilience. Think the market reflects deep seated current concerns.

China is still online to fill up its Four phases of Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Noting that China is still on subsidised petrol.

Crude climbs in a long steady trend. After it has broken out of its consolidation at 30-35, it is going to be a long hot summer.

Crude prices is something that Bernanke cannot control. Bernanke can control the Bank Equities prices, henceforth the Equities markets, he cannot control Crude, Gold.
He has lost his control of USD, and now faces his nemesis.

The best long opportunity is in Crude Futures, the best short opportunity is in the Emergig Markets. Too mucn of misplaced optimism in emerging economies on the fantasy that China can pull the world out of recession.

Having said that, Monday is the pullback day. hence expect Crude/Euro to test up channel support. personall expect Euro to 1.5000, Crude to 80 if not 100 again.

Collateral damage of this US credit crsis is its loss of moral authority over other nations. When pple from other nations see how corrupt is the US capital system. The communist, socialist power in the world has found renewed energy.
US has no more will nor monies to wage another war. Hence forth, North Korea, Iran would attain their nuclear ambition and set forh a decade of turmoil.
That explains why DOW is going to 3000, SPX to 400 in the long run.
The credit crisis and the ensuing recession is only the end of the Beginning of the Kondratieff Winter, and the Beginning of the End of the United States as a superpower.