Tuesday, May 19, 2009

19 May Goldilock



you can see the super high volume day for the Hang Sang Index.

For Eurusd, decision time, whether to break out of the CUP and HANDLE formation. Otherwise, it risks a steep fall.
Check EURGBP, Eur on verge of falling down vs GBP.

00:31 CNY News: Change of Policy on Investment Overseas May 19. The SCMP has
followed up on a Ministry of Commerce statement released yesterday urging
domestic companies to invest overseas. The State Administration of Foreign
Exchange (SAFE) also announced that it planned to encourage more investments
abroad by easing inspection procedures and expanding FX available for
investment. Added to this mix was an announcement by the National Social
Security Fund (NSSF) that it was seeking cabinet approval to invest billions of
dollars in private equity funds. The SCMP says this renewed interest in overseas
investment is in stark contrast to warnings earlier this year about the
political and cultural risks in foreign deals. If China is about to open the
"purse strings" then the big beneficiaries (if not already) would be Brazil,
Australia, Canada, South Africa etc. for obvious reasons.[/QUOTE]

Now China dun have a good track record of overseas investment. The fact that China government is pushing for investment overseas is akin to China forex investment corp buying up BlackRock in 2007.

The trick is to deplete China, and other sovereign wealth funds of their reserves, then when the next crisis comes, there would be no more monies for stimulus plan. When the entire world is in debt, we would head for the abyss. This takes time to happen. Probably by 2012, it would be most obvious.

The world has gone on a bull run since 1929 till 2007, an almost 80 yrs of bull cycle. The next 30 yrs is a bear market, with occasional bull rallies, like the one we are having. Hence the strategy for the whales is to grab as much monies as possible from the dolphins.

Wealth preservation is till the mantra. You would still be wealthier if you stay out of the market.

May be you take the ride now, with destination unknown. You may be ride the bull to the peak and then down into the abyss, back to where you are. The only person who benefit is your broker.

Update 1:35 am ET------------------
Crude just broke 60. a new recent high. or rather a new high for a long while. All those FED monies just went to the Banks, and the Banks sponsoring the Oil Index Funds to buy up Oil Contracts. and then the Oil Traders like Vitoil, who already have accumulated, tonnes of oil, start to push market up. In the coming Driving Season and Hurricane. Last yr with every hurricane, the oil gets beaten down lower. This yr, with every Hurricane, oil surges. Then they payoff the Nigerian guerillas to blow up some pipelines, while the Shell people just watch them. Oil stock goes up.

Suspect their target is 100 Dollar oil. Hence that make Euro easily 1.5000. You can either Long Euro/Oil now and put Trailing Stops and enjoy the ride up for 1000 pips, otherwise you trade in and out following my calls.

You would be surprised that your broker is long USD and now bleeding. When your broker cut loss, Euro would surge.

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