Friday, May 22, 2009

22 May Collapse of USD ? USD index broken support.

well, things happen really fast. and the USD index is now broken. PIMCO Bill Gross now talks about US rating downgrade. When Bill Gross speaks, you better listen. Last yr, when Euro slides to around 1.4000, he said USD has more upside, Euro slide to 1.2400 eventually.
Now Bill Gross says US would lose its AAA eventually, means it would happen soon. Reason: Obama has passed a bill to regulate the Rating Agencies. Hence the rating agencies now have to do their job. (US Debt should have lost its AAA long ago).
This is going to be scary, the Banks would have to start to revalue US debt on their books, US corporations have to pay higher interest for loans.
And now OBama wants to keep GM alive by pumping monies into GMAC. Whether GM goes Chapter 11 or not, the result is the same. Chap 11=> more job loss. Keep alive => more tax payer monies, while jobloss still happens.
The simplest solution is to take the pain now, close GM, Citigroup, BAC, and then the Democrats would still have a chance of winning next yr mid term. Otherwise, this drags on past this yr, and the American public would be really impatient.
Eur is whiskers away from 1.4000, GBP from 1.6000, and Crude from 65.
the smart whales have taken profit from Equity into Commodities, Crude, short USD. however they need to maintain the Equity to make their Commodities/Crude moves credible, in the face of economy recovery.
Due to low liqudity, we would expect today to be hghly explosive, Crude jumping, Euro towards 1.5000, etc. while Equity stage another rebound to 915 to suck in more monies.
The mantra is to suck in as much monies as possible.
and everybody knows how it would end up eventually. The longer it holds at current level, the harder would be the fall.

China would have to spend more USD buying up Commodities, while USD depreciates. This would speed up the depletion of China USD reserves. If you cannot pay back your debt, hope that you banker would go bankrupt.

With all the side monies around (thanx to Bernanke), it is quite difficult to go down actually. If it goes down, probably bços the Good Samaritans (GS) engineer one.
It would need a jolt, like the much anticipated St. Andreas fault eruption, mutation of H1N1 to a fatal strain, or some military conflict close to home, otherwise it is not likely.
Hence if you are shorts, dun be too greedy. Nonetheless if it is cheap, you can try your luck.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi, how much is your subscription? and on the signals u give is there any past performance report or someting??. thanks.